(HEIA) Heineken - Overview
Stock: Beer, Cider, Soft Drinks, Water, Wine
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 19.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.03% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.02 |
| Alpha | -0.66 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | -0.130 |
| Beta Downside | 0.063 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 37.50% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.16 |
Description: HEIA Heineken January 29, 2026
Heineken N.V. (ticker HEIA) is a globally diversified brewer headquartered in Amsterdam, producing and distributing beer, cider, wine, soft drinks, and bottled water across the Americas, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific. Its portfolio spans flagship labels such as Heineken, Heineken Silver, Dos Equis, and Lagunitas, as well as regional brands like Kingfisher, Tiger, and Bia Viet, serving retailers, on-trade venues, and hospitality channels.
In FY 2023 Heineken reported net revenue of €30.9 billion, a 4.2 % organic volume growth driven primarily by strong performance in emerging markets (Latin America + 6.5 % and Africa + 5.8 %). Adjusted EBIT margin held at 15.3 %, reflecting disciplined cost management amid rising commodity prices. The company’s exposure to inflation-linked pricing and its 2024 capital-expenditure plan of €2.5 billion to expand high-margin craft and non-alcoholic segments underscore the sector’s shift toward premiumisation and health-conscious consumption.
For a deeper quantitative assessment of Heineken’s valuation dynamics, consider exploring the detailed analyst models on ValueRay to benchmark its forward-looking cash-flow assumptions against peer-group baselines.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 2.50b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.98 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.97% < 20% (prev -7.92%; Δ 5.95% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.20 > 3% & CFO 10.59b > Net Income 2.50b |
| Net Debt (12.99b) to EBITDA (9.82b): 1.32 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.93 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (560.6m) vs 12m ago -0.86% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 20.99% > 18% (prev 0.13%; Δ 2086 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 95.79% > 50% (prev 76.69%; Δ 19.10% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.69 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 9.82b / Interest Expense TTM 1.32b) |
Altman Z'' 2.29
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 12.89b - Total Current Liabilities 13.93b) / Total Assets 53.75b |
| B: 0.37 (Retained Earnings 19.75b / Total Assets 53.75b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 4.87b / Avg Total Assets 55.07b) |
| D: 0.60 (Book Value of Equity 19.75b / Total Liabilities 33.14b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 2.29 = BBB |
Beneish M -3.77
| DSRI: 0.56 (Receivables 3.07b/4.49b, Revenue 52.75b/43.24b) |
| GMI: 0.63 (GM 20.99% / 13.21%) |
| AQI: 0.91 (AQ_t 0.49 / AQ_t-1 0.54) |
| SGI: 1.22 (Revenue 52.75b / 43.24b) |
| TATA: -0.15 (NI 2.50b - CFO 10.59b) / TA 53.75b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.77 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of HEIA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.67%, over one month by +15.58%, over three months by +11.28% and over the past year by +0.77%.
Is HEIA a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the HEIA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 89.1 | 15.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
HEIA Fundamental Data Overview February 18, 2026
P/E Trailing = 23.0592
P/E Forward = 15.748
P/S = 1.5032
P/B = 2.4085
P/EG = 1.4685
Revenue TTM = 52.75b EUR
EBIT TTM = 4.87b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 9.82b EUR
Long Term Debt = 15.02b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.74b EUR (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 17.59b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, two quarters ago)
Net Debt = 12.99b EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 56.04b EUR (43.22b + Debt 17.59b - CCE 4.77b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.69 (Ebit TTM 4.87b / Interest Expense TTM 1.32b)
EV/FCF = 9.82x (Enterprise Value 56.04b / FCF TTM 5.71b)
FCF Yield = 10.18% (FCF TTM 5.71b / Enterprise Value 56.04b)
FCF Margin = 10.82% (FCF TTM 5.71b / Revenue TTM 52.75b)
Net Margin = 4.74% (Net Income TTM 2.50b / Revenue TTM 52.75b)
Gross Margin = 20.99% ((Revenue TTM 52.75b - Cost of Revenue TTM 41.68b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 34.87% (prev 13.26%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.04 (Enterprise Value 56.04b / Total Assets 53.75b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.68% (Interest Expense 295.0m / Debt 17.59b)
Taxrate = 29.88% (183.0m / 612.5m)
NOPAT = 3.42b (EBIT 4.87b * (1 - 29.88%))
Current Ratio = 0.93 (Total Current Assets 12.89b / Total Current Liabilities 13.93b)
Debt / Equity = 0.98 (Debt 17.59b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 17.98b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.32 (Net Debt 12.99b / EBITDA 9.82b)
Debt / FCF = 2.28 (Net Debt 12.99b / FCF TTM 5.71b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 18.67b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.54% (Net Income 2.50b / Total Assets 53.75b)
RoE = 13.38% (Net Income TTM 2.50b / Total Stockholder Equity 18.67b)
RoCE = 14.46% (EBIT 4.87b / Capital Employed (Equity 18.67b + L.T.Debt 15.02b))
RoIC = 12.63% (NOPAT 3.42b / Invested Capital 27.04b)
WACC = 4.21% (E(43.22b)/V(60.81b) * Re(5.44%) + D(17.59b)/V(60.81b) * Rd(1.68%) * (1-Tc(0.30)))
Discount Rate = 5.44% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.43%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 85.54% ; FCFF base≈4.24b ; Y1≈3.93b ; Y5≈3.58b
Fair Price DCF = 170.8 (EV 107.69b - Net Debt 12.99b = Equity 94.70b / Shares 554.6m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -9.23% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -18.65 | EPS CAGR: -65.52% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 47.18 | Revenue CAGR: -13.22% | SUE: -0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.22 | Chg30d=+0.036 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+9.3% | Growth Revenue=-10.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.64 | Chg30d=-0.057 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+8.1% | Growth Revenue=+4.1%