(HEIA) Heineken - Ratings and Ratios
Beer, Cider, Wine, Soft Drinks, Water
Description: HEIA Heineken
Heineken N.V. is a global brewing company with a diverse portfolio of beer and cider brands, operating in multiple regions including the Americas, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers a range of premium and mainstream beers under various brand names, including Heineken, Dos Equis, and Tiger, among others.
From a business perspective, Heinekens revenue streams are driven by sales to retailers, wholesalers, and on-premise customers such as cafes, bars, and restaurants. The companys global presence and diversified brand portfolio provide a solid foundation for growth, with opportunities for expansion in emerging markets and premiumization trends.
Key performance indicators (KPIs) that are relevant to Heinekens business include revenue growth, volume growth, and pricing power. The companys ability to drive premiumization and increase average selling prices is crucial to maintaining profit margins. Additionally, Heinekens operational efficiency, measured by metrics such as cost per hectoliter and return on invested capital (ROIC), is also important. With a return on equity (RoE) of 18.97%, Heineken demonstrates a relatively strong ability to generate returns for shareholders.
From a valuation perspective, Heinekens price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 43.66 suggests that the stock may be relatively expensive compared to its earnings. However, the forward P/E ratio of 16.53 indicates that the companys earnings are expected to grow significantly in the future, which could justify the current valuation. Overall, Heinekens strong brand portfolio, global presence, and operational efficiency position the company for long-term success.
HEIA Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 43,678m |
| Sub-Industry | Brewers |
| IPO / Inception |
HEIA Stock Ratings
| Growth Rating | -28.6% |
| Fundamental | 73.3% |
| Dividend Rating | 56.2% |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -30.2% |
| Analyst Rating | - |
HEIA Dividends
| Dividend Yield 12m | 2.73% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.69% |
| Annual Growth 5y | 10.71% |
| Payout Consistency | 94.7% |
| Payout Ratio | 37.1% |
HEIA Growth Ratios
| Growth Correlation 3m | -76.2% |
| Growth Correlation 12m | 2.2% |
| Growth Correlation 5y | -35% |
| CAGR 5y | -7.72% |
| CAGR/Max DD 3y | -0.21 |
| CAGR/Mean DD 3y | -0.46 |
| Sharpe Ratio 12m | -0.77 |
| Alpha | -29.97 |
| Beta | 0.518 |
| Volatility | 19.83% |
| Current Volume | 801.5k |
| Average Volume 20d | 681.8k |
| Stop Loss | 64 (-3%) |
| Signal | -0.71 |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income (3.72b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 2.74b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.06 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -1.17pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -7.32% (prev -10.27%; Δ 2.94pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 (>3.0%) and CFO 6.76b > Net Income 3.72b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (29.02b) to EBITDA (9.18b) ratio: 3.16 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.77 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (565.4m) change vs 12m ago -1.88% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 11.25% (prev 18.21%; Δ -6.95pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 85.07% (prev 57.89%; Δ 27.19pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 5.80 (EBITDA TTM 9.18b / Interest Expense TTM 884.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.04
| (A) -0.06 = (Total Current Assets 10.90b - Total Current Liabilities 14.24b) / Total Assets 53.77b |
| (B) 0.36 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 19.21b / Total Assets 53.77b |
| (C) 0.10 = EBIT TTM 5.13b / Avg Total Assets 53.60b |
| (D) 0.61 = Book Value of Equity 19.21b / Total Liabilities 31.37b |
| Total Rating: 2.04 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 73.32
| 1. Piotroski 4.50pt = -0.50 |
| 2. FCF Yield 4.67% = 2.34 |
| 3. FCF Margin 6.79% = 1.70 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.60 = 1.34 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.42 = -2.24 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC 20.63% = 12.50 |
| 7. RoE 18.97% = 1.58 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 79.64% = 3.98 |
| 9. Rev. CAGR 68.00% = 2.50 |
| 10. EPS Trend 5.26% = 0.13 |
| 11. EPS CAGR 0.0% = 0.0 |
What is the price of HEIA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.43%, over one month by -3.00%, over three months by -11.79% and over the past year by -17.41%.
Is Heineken a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of HEIA is around 61.79 EUR . This means that HEIA is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -6.38%.
Is HEIA a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the HEIA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 89 | 34.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 66.6 | 0.9% |
HEIA Fundamental Data Overview
Market Cap EUR = 37.25b (37.25b EUR * 1.0 EUR.EUR)
CCE Cash And Equivalents = 2.35b EUR (Cash only, last quarter)
P/E Trailing = 20.3704
P/E Forward = 13.6612
P/S = 1.2767
P/B = 2.0871
P/EG = 0.4584
Beta = 0.58
Revenue TTM = 45.60b EUR
EBIT TTM = 5.13b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 9.18b EUR
Long Term Debt = 17.13b EUR (from nonCurrentLiabilitiesTotal, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 14.24b EUR (from totalCurrentLiabilities, last quarter)
Debt = 31.37b EUR (Calculated: Short Term 14.24b + Long Term 17.13b)
Net Debt = 29.02b EUR (calculated as Total Debt 31.37b - CCE 2.35b)
Enterprise Value = 66.27b EUR (37.25b + Debt 31.37b - CCE 2.35b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.80 (Ebit TTM 5.13b / Interest Expense TTM 884.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.67% (FCF TTM 3.10b / Enterprise Value 66.27b)
FCF Margin = 6.79% (FCF TTM 3.10b / Revenue TTM 45.60b)
Net Margin = 8.16% (Net Income TTM 3.72b / Revenue TTM 45.60b)
Gross Margin = 11.25% ((Revenue TTM 45.60b - Cost of Revenue TTM 40.47b) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.45 (Enterprise Value 66.27b / Book Value Of Equity 19.21b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.10% (Interest Expense 345.0m / Debt 31.37b)
Taxrate = 2.84% (32.0m / 1.13b)
NOPAT = 4.99b (EBIT 5.13b * (1 - 2.84%))
Current Ratio = 0.77 (Total Current Assets 10.90b / Total Current Liabilities 14.24b)
Debt / Equity = 1.60 (Debt 31.37b / last Quarter total Stockholder Equity 19.58b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.42 (Net Debt 29.02b / EBITDA 9.18b)
Debt / FCF = 10.14 (Debt 31.37b / FCF TTM 3.10b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 19.61b (last 4 quarters mean)
RoA = 6.92% (Net Income 3.72b, Total Assets 53.77b )
RoE = 18.97% (Net Income TTM 3.72b / Total Stockholder Equity 19.61b)
RoCE = 13.96% (Ebit 5.13b / (Equity 19.61b + L.T.Debt 17.13b))
RoIC = 25.42% (NOPAT 4.99b / Invested Capital 19.61b)
WACC = 4.79% (E(37.25b)/V(68.62b) * Re(7.92%)) + (D(31.37b)/V(68.62b) * Rd(1.10%) * (1-Tc(0.03)))
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 0.0 | Cagr: -0.16%
Discount Rate = 7.92% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + ERP 8.05%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 77.13% ; FCFE base≈3.34b ; Y1≈3.09b ; Y5≈2.82b
Fair Price DCF = 90.42 (DCF Value 50.65b / Shares Outstanding 560.1m; 5y FCF grow -9.23% → 3.0% )
Revenue Correlation: 79.64 | Revenue CAGR: 68.00%
Rev Growth-of-Growth: 8.66
EPS Correlation: 5.26 | EPS CAGR: 0.0%
EPS Growth-of-Growth: 335.3