HEIA Stock Analysis: Heineken | AS
Beverages - Brewers | AS, Netherlands | Market Cap: 42.124m EUR | 12M Return: 4.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 55.0M
EPS Trend: -59.9%
Rev. Trend: -49.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Heineken N.V. is a Dutch multinational brewer established in 1864 and headquartered in Amsterdam, operating as a subsidiary of Heineken Holding N.V. The company produces and sells beer and cider, and also offers soft drinks, across Europe, the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia Pacific. It markets a broad portfolio of brands, including flagship Heineken alongside regional labels such as Amstel, Tiger, Desperados, Dos Equis, Kingfisher, and Tecate, sold through retailers, wholesalers, bars, restaurants, cafes, and hotels. Beyond brewing, Heineken engages in related activities including pub and bar rentals, wholesale operations, and pub management and technical services.
The brewing sub-industry is characterized by mature, volume-driven demand and intense consolidation, with a small number of multinational producers accounting for a significant share of global volume. Multi-brand portfolio strategies are standard, allowing brewers to address varied regional taste preferences and price tiers; on-premise (hospitality) and off-premise (retail) distribution channels are the two main revenue paths in the industry. Some large brewers, Heineken included, also pursue vertical integration through owned or franchised on-premise venues to strengthen brand presence and capture additional margin.
- Africa and Asia volume growth drives revenue expansion
- Heineken 0.0 and premium brands lift operating margin
- Capital return program accelerates with increased share buybacks
| Net Income: 1.51b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.15 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -3.61% < 20% (prev -11.20%; Δ 7.58% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 5.01b > Net Income 1.51b |
| Net Debt (17.2b) to EBITDA (4.52b): 3.80 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.93 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (560.6m) vs 12m ago -0.86% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 35.78% > 18% (prev 23.94%; Δ 11.84% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 52.27% > 50% (prev 54.15%; Δ -1.89% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.46 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.76b / Interest Expense TTM 620.0m) |
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 12.9b - Total Current Liabilities 13.9b) / Total Assets 55.0b |
| B: 0.36 (Retained Earnings 19.8b / Total Assets 55.0b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 2.76b / Avg Total Assets 55.0b) |
| D: 0.52 (Book Value of Equity 18.0b / Total Liabilities 34.3b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.93 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.04 (Receivables 4.19b/4.19b, Revenue 28.8b/29.8b) |
| GMI: 0.67 (GM 23.94% / 35.78%) |
| AQI: 0.94 (AQ_t 0.50 / AQ_t-1 0.54) |
| SGI: 0.96 (Revenue 28.8b / 29.8b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 1.51b - CFO 5.01b) / TA 55.0b) |
| Beneish M = -3.37 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 18, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 77.24 with a total of 942,422 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.90%, over one month by +9.93%, over three months by +14.52% and over the past year by +4.09%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 75.30 (which is 2.5% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Heineken has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 22.426
P/E Forward = 14.6843
P/S = 1.465
P/B = 2.3431
P/EG = 1.3703
Revenue TTM = 28.8b EUR
EBIT TTM = 2.76b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 4.52b EUR
Long Term Debt = 15.0b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.09b EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 22.0b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.52b
Net Debt = 17.2b EUR (calculated: Debt 22.0b - CCE 4.77b)
Enterprise Value = 59.3b EUR (42.1b + Debt 22.0b - CCE 4.77b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.46 (Ebit TTM 2.76b / Interest Expense TTM 620.0m)
EV/FCF = 22.12x (Enterprise Value 59.3b / FCF TTM 2.68b)
FCF Yield = 4.52% (FCF TTM 2.68b / Enterprise Value 59.3b)
FCF Margin = 9.33% (FCF TTM 2.68b / Revenue TTM 28.8b)
Net Margin = 5.26% (Net Income TTM 1.51b / Revenue TTM 28.8b)
Gross Margin = 35.78% ((Revenue TTM 28.8b - Cost of Revenue TTM 18.5b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 36.08% (prev 34.87%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.08 (Enterprise Value 59.3b / Total Assets 55.0b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.82% (Interest Expense 620.0m / Debt 22.0b)
Taxrate = 28.61% (857.0m / 3.00b)
NOPAT = 1.97b (EBIT 2.76b * (1 - 28.61%))
Current Ratio = 0.93 (Total Current Assets 12.9b / Total Current Liabilities 13.9b)
Debt / Equity = 1.22 (Debt 22.0b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 18.0b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.80 (Net Debt 17.2b / EBITDA 4.52b)
Debt / FCF = 6.41 (Net Debt 17.2b / FCF TTM 2.68b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 18.7b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.75% (Net Income 1.51b / Total Assets 55.0b)
RoE = 8.10% (Net Income TTM 1.51b / Total Stockholder Equity 18.7b)
RoCE = 8.20% (EBIT 2.76b / Capital Employed (Equity 18.7b + L.T.Debt 15.0b))
RoIC = 4.62% (NOPAT 1.97b / Invested Capital 42.7b)
WACC = 4.03% (E(42.1b)/V(64.1b) * Re(5.08%) + D(22.0b)/V(64.1b) * Rd(2.82%) * (1-Tc(0.29)))
Discount Rate = 5.08% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -91.48 | Cagr: -1.20%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈2.94b ; Y1≈2.58b ; Y5≈2.08b
[DCF] Fair Price = 29.16 (EV 33.4b - Net Debt 17.2b = Equity 16.2b / Shares 555.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -59.89 | EPS CAGR: -24.71% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -49.31 | Revenue CAGR: -6.38% | SUE: -0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.26 | Chg30d=+0.49% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+10.1% | GrowthRev=-10.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.68 | Chg30d=+0.87% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+7.8% | GrowthRev=+4.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +12% (up=3, down=2)