HEIA Stock Analysis: Heineken | AS
Beverages - Brewers | AS, Netherlands | Market Cap: 41.050m EUR | 12M Return: 10.1% | NL0000009165 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 68.4M
EPS Trend: -59.9%
Rev. Trend: 14.1%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Heineken N.V. is a Dutch multinational brewer established in 1864 and headquartered in Amsterdam, operating as a subsidiary of Heineken Holding N.V. The company produces and sells beer and cider, and also offers soft drinks, across Europe, the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia Pacific. It markets a broad portfolio of brands, including flagship Heineken alongside regional labels such as Amstel, Tiger, Desperados, Dos Equis, Kingfisher, and Tecate, sold through retailers, wholesalers, bars, restaurants, cafes, and hotels. Beyond brewing, Heineken engages in related activities including pub and bar rentals, wholesale operations, and pub management and technical services.
The brewing sub-industry is characterized by mature, volume-driven demand and intense consolidation, with a small number of multinational producers accounting for a significant share of global volume. Multi-brand portfolio strategies are standard, allowing brewers to address varied regional taste preferences and price tiers; on-premise (hospitality) and off-premise (retail) distribution channels are the two main revenue paths in the industry. Some large brewers, Heineken included, also pursue vertical integration through owned or franchised on-premise venues to strengthen brand presence and capture additional margin.
- Africa and Asia volume growth drives revenue expansion
- Heineken 0.0 and premium brands lift operating margin
- Capital return program accelerates with increased share buybacks
| Net Income: 2.27b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.43 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -11.14% < 20% (prev -17.14%; Δ 6.00% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 5.81b > Net Income 2.27b |
| Net Debt (19.3b) to EBITDA (5.96b): 3.24 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.75 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (548.7m) vs 12m ago -2.06% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 25.83% > 18% (prev 20.20%; Δ 5.63% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 66.57% > 50% (prev 42.78%; Δ 23.79% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.06 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.50b / Interest Expense TTM 691.0m) |
| A: -0.07 (Total Current Assets 12.2b - Total Current Liabilities 16.3b) / Total Assets 58.0b |
| B: 0.34 (Retained Earnings 19.7b / Total Assets 58.0b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 3.50b / Avg Total Assets 54.8b) |
| D: 0.53 (Book Value of Equity 19.1b / Total Liabilities 36.3b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.63 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.64 (Receivables 5.54b/5.21b, Revenue 36.5b/22.1b) |
| GMI: 0.78 (GM 20.20% / 25.83%) |
| AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.52 / AQ_t-1 0.51) |
| SGI: 1.65 (Revenue 36.5b / 22.1b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 2.27b - CFO 5.81b) / TA 58.0b) |
| Beneish M = -3.04 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of August 17, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 73.52 with a total of 1,588,283 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.69%, over one month by -3.13%, over three months by +11.91% and over the past year by +10.07%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 71.60 (which is 2.6% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Heineken has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 18.0341
P/E Forward = 14.8368
P/S = 1.3956
P/B = 2.2238
P/EG = 1.3857
Revenue TTM = 36.5b EUR
EBIT TTM = 3.50b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 5.96b EUR
Long Term Debt = 15.0b EUR (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 4.35b EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 22.2b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.52b
Net Debt = 19.3b EUR (calculated: Debt 22.2b - CCE 2.83b)
Enterprise Value = 60.4b EUR (41.1b + Debt 22.2b - CCE 2.83b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.06 (Ebit TTM 3.50b / Interest Expense TTM 691.0m)
EV/FCF = 15.22x (Enterprise Value 60.4b / FCF TTM 3.97b)
FCF Yield = 6.57% (FCF TTM 3.97b / Enterprise Value 60.4b)
FCF Margin = 10.87% (FCF TTM 3.97b / Revenue TTM 36.5b)
Net Margin = 6.21% (Net Income TTM 2.27b / Revenue TTM 36.5b)
Gross Margin = 25.83% ((Revenue TTM 36.5b - Cost of Revenue TTM 27.1b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 10.88% (prev 36.08%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.04 (Enterprise Value 60.4b / Total Assets 58.0b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.12% (Interest Expense 691.0m / Debt 22.2b)
Taxrate = 27.43% (1.12b / 4.10b)
NOPAT = 2.54b (EBIT 3.50b * (1 - 27.43%))
Current Ratio = 0.75 (Total Current Assets 12.2b / Total Current Liabilities 16.3b)
Debt / Equity = 1.16 (Debt 22.2b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 19.1b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.24 (Net Debt 19.3b / EBITDA 5.96b)
Debt / FCF = 4.87 (Net Debt 19.3b / FCF TTM 3.97b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 18.6b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.13% (Net Income 2.27b / Total Assets 58.0b)
RoE = 12.18% (Net Income TTM 2.27b / Total Stockholder Equity 18.6b)
RoCE = 10.40% (EBIT 3.50b / Capital Employed (Equity 18.6b + L.T.Debt 15.0b))
RoIC = 5.73% (NOPAT 2.54b / Invested Capital 44.3b)
WACC = 3.98% (E(41.1b)/V(63.2b) * Re(4.90%) + D(22.2b)/V(63.2b) * Rd(3.12%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 4.90% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -92.50 | Cagr: -2.12%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈3.50b ; Y1≈4.01b ; Y5≈5.90b
[DCF] Fair Price = 125.2 (EV 88.8b - Net Debt 19.3b = Equity 69.5b / Shares 555.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -59.89 | EPS CAGR: -24.71% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 14.08 | Revenue CAGR: 2.48% | SUE: 0.90 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.27 | Chg30d=+0.15% | Revisions=+53% | GrowthEPS=+10.3% | GrowthRev=-10.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.71 | Chg30d=+0.65% | Revisions=+42% | GrowthEPS=+8.3% | GrowthRev=+3.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +51% (up=25, down=7)