(HEIA) Heineken - Ratings and Ratios
Beer, Cider, Malt, Soft Drinks, Bottled Water
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 19.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 29.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.67% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.08 |
| Alpha | -3.86 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.574 |
| Beta | -0.094 |
| Beta Downside | 0.048 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 37.50% |
| Mean DD | 18.05% |
| Median DD | 19.11% |
Description: HEIA Heineken September 29, 2025
Heineken N.V. (ticker HEIA) is a Dutch-based brewer that produces and sells beer, cider, wine, soft drinks, and bottled water across the Americas, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific. Its portfolio spans global and regional brands such as Heineken, Desperados, Birra Moretti, Kingfisher, Dos Equis, Strongbow, Lagunitas, and Tecate, serving retailers, wholesalers, on-premise venues (cafés, bars, hotels, restaurants) and the broader consumer market.
In FY 2023 the company generated €28.6 billion in revenue with an adjusted EBIT margin of roughly 15 %, driven by continued premiumisation in emerging markets and a 4 % volume growth in Africa and Asia-Pacific. Key economic drivers include raw-material price inflation (barley, aluminum) and currency fluctuations, while the broader brewers sub-industry is seeing a modest 3 % CAGR as consumers shift toward higher-margin craft and low-alcohol offerings. Heineken’s sustainability agenda targets a 30 % reduction in CO₂ emissions per litre by 2030, which is increasingly factored into investor risk assessments.
Heineken operates as a subsidiary of Heineken Holding N.V., with a corporate history dating back to 1864 and a headquarters in Amsterdam. For a deeper quantitative assessment, the ValueRay platform offers a granular breakdown of HEIA’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis.
HEIA Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 45,860m |
| Sub-Industry | Brewers |
| IPO / Inception | |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -13.2% |
| Analyst Rating | - |
HEIA Dividends
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.79% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.34% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 13.57% |
| Payout Consistency | 93.5% |
| Payout Ratio | 37.1% |
HEIA Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | -6.57% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | -0.18 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | -0.36 |
| Current Volume | 599.9k |
| Average Volume | 697.9k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income (3.72b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 2.74b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.06 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.51pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -8.30% (prev -12.62%; Δ 4.32pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 (>3.0%) and CFO 6.76b > Net Income 3.72b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (13.36b) to EBITDA (9.18b) ratio: 1.45 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.75 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (564.9m) change vs 12m ago -0.36% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 11.25% (prev 18.21%; Δ -6.95pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 84.01% (prev 54.33%; Δ 29.68pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 5.80 (EBITDA TTM 9.18b / Interest Expense TTM 884.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.01
| (A) -0.07 = (Total Current Assets 11.08b - Total Current Liabilities 14.86b) / Total Assets 51.63b |
| (B) 0.37 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 19.20b / Total Assets 51.63b |
| (C) 0.09 = EBIT TTM 5.13b / Avg Total Assets 54.27b |
| (D) 0.61 = Book Value of Equity 19.20b / Total Liabilities 31.40b |
| Total Rating: 2.01 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 76.37
| 1. Piotroski 5.0pt = 0.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield 5.82% = 2.91 |
| 3. FCF Margin 6.79% = 1.70 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.89 = 2.12 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.45 = 1.04 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 16.90)% = 12.50 |
| 7. RoE 19.39% = 1.62 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 73.05% = 5.48 |
| 9. EPS Trend -19.96% = -1.00 |
What is the price of HEIA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.93%, over one month by -3.44%, over three months by -1.33% and over the past year by -1.41%.
Is HEIA a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the HEIA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 86.3 | 26.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 68.7 | 0.4% |
HEIA Fundamental Data Overview November 18, 2025
Market Cap EUR = 39.51b (39.51b EUR * 1.0 EUR.EUR)
P/E Trailing = 21.8704
P/E Forward = 15.2672
P/S = 1.354
P/B = 2.209
P/EG = 0.5939
Beta = 0.478
Revenue TTM = 45.60b EUR
EBIT TTM = 5.13b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 9.18b EUR
Long Term Debt = 12.75b EUR (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 2.95b EUR (from shortLongTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 15.71b EUR (Calculated: Short Term 2.95b + Long Term 12.75b)
Net Debt = 13.36b EUR (from netDebt column, last fiscal year)
Enterprise Value = 53.15b EUR (39.51b + Debt 15.71b - CCE 2.07b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.80 (Ebit TTM 5.13b / Interest Expense TTM 884.0m)
FCF Yield = 5.82% (FCF TTM 3.10b / Enterprise Value 53.15b)
FCF Margin = 6.79% (FCF TTM 3.10b / Revenue TTM 45.60b)
Net Margin = 8.16% (Net Income TTM 3.72b / Revenue TTM 45.60b)
Gross Margin = 11.25% ((Revenue TTM 45.60b - Cost of Revenue TTM 40.47b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 9.22% (prev 10.36%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.03 (Enterprise Value 53.15b / Total Assets 51.63b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.20% (Interest Expense 345.0m / Debt 15.71b)
Taxrate = 2.84% (32.0m / 1.13b)
NOPAT = 4.99b (EBIT 5.13b * (1 - 2.84%))
Current Ratio = 0.75 (Total Current Assets 11.08b / Total Current Liabilities 14.86b)
Debt / Equity = 0.89 (Debt 15.71b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 17.71b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.45 (Net Debt 13.36b / EBITDA 9.18b)
Debt / FCF = 4.32 (Net Debt 13.36b / FCF TTM 3.10b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 19.19b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.21% (Net Income 3.72b / Total Assets 51.63b)
RoE = 19.39% (Net Income TTM 3.72b / Total Stockholder Equity 19.19b)
RoCE = 16.06% (EBIT 5.13b / Capital Employed (Equity 19.19b + L.T.Debt 12.75b))
RoIC = 21.57% (NOPAT 4.99b / Invested Capital 23.12b)
WACC = 4.66% (E(39.51b)/V(55.21b) * Re(5.67%) + D(15.71b)/V(55.21b) * Rd(2.20%) * (1-Tc(0.03)))
Discount Rate = 5.67% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.93%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 77.13% ; FCFE base≈3.34b ; Y1≈3.09b ; Y5≈2.82b
Fair Price DCF = 90.84 (DCF Value 50.65b / Shares Outstanding 557.5m; 5y FCF grow -9.23% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -19.96 | EPS CAGR: -78.78% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 73.05 | Revenue CAGR: 22.98% | SUE: -0.03 | # QB: 0