(HEIA) Heineken - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: AS • Country: Netherlands • Currency: EUR • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: NL0000009165

Beer, Cider, Malt, Soft Drinks, Bottled Water

Description: HEIA Heineken

Heineken N.V. (ticker HEIA) is a Dutch-based brewer that produces and sells beer, cider, wine, soft drinks, and bottled water across the Americas, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific. Its portfolio spans global and regional brands such as Heineken, Desperados, Birra Moretti, Kingfisher, Dos Equis, Strongbow, Lagunitas, and Tecate, serving retailers, wholesalers, on-premise venues (cafés, bars, hotels, restaurants) and the broader consumer market.

In FY 2023 the company generated €28.6 billion in revenue with an adjusted EBIT margin of roughly 15 %, driven by continued premiumisation in emerging markets and a 4 % volume growth in Africa and Asia-Pacific. Key economic drivers include raw-material price inflation (barley, aluminum) and currency fluctuations, while the broader brewers sub-industry is seeing a modest 3 % CAGR as consumers shift toward higher-margin craft and low-alcohol offerings. Heineken’s sustainability agenda targets a 30 % reduction in CO₂ emissions per litre by 2030, which is increasingly factored into investor risk assessments.

Heineken operates as a subsidiary of Heineken Holding N.V., with a corporate history dating back to 1864 and a headquarters in Amsterdam. For a deeper quantitative assessment, the ValueRay platform offers a granular breakdown of HEIA’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis.

HEIA Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD 43,558m
Sub-Industry Brewers
IPO / Inception

HEIA Stock Ratings

Growth Rating -20.7%
Fundamental 76.5%
Dividend Rating 58.1%
Return 12m vs S&P 500 -20.0%
Analyst Rating -

HEIA Dividends

Dividend Yield 12m 2.71%
Yield on Cost 5y 2.65%
Annual Growth 5y 13.57%
Payout Consistency 93.5%
Payout Ratio 37.1%

HEIA Growth Ratios

Growth Correlation 3m -65.6%
Growth Correlation 12m -3.4%
Growth Correlation 5y -44.8%
CAGR 5y -4.40%
CAGR/Max DD 3y (Calmar Ratio) -0.12
CAGR/Mean DD 3y (Pain Ratio) -0.26
Sharpe Ratio 12m -0.69
Alpha -17.18
Beta 0.577
Volatility 19.92%
Current Volume 1196.4k
Average Volume 20d 827.5k
Stop Loss 68.3 (-3%)
Signal 0.68

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0

Net Income (3.72b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 2.74b TTM)
FCFTA 0.06 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.51pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)
NWC/Revenue -8.30% (prev -12.62%; Δ 4.32pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)
CFO/TA 0.13 (>3.0%) and CFO 6.76b > Net Income 3.72b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)
Net Debt (13.36b) to EBITDA (9.18b) ratio: 1.45 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)
Current Ratio 0.75 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)
Outstanding Shares last Quarter (564.9m) change vs 12m ago -0.36% (target <= -2.0% for YES)
Gross Margin 11.25% (prev 18.21%; Δ -6.95pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)
Asset Turnover 84.01% (prev 54.33%; Δ 29.68pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)
Interest Coverage Ratio 5.80 (EBITDA TTM 9.18b / Interest Expense TTM 884.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 2.01

(A) -0.07 = (Total Current Assets 11.08b - Total Current Liabilities 14.86b) / Total Assets 51.63b
(B) 0.37 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 19.20b / Total Assets 51.63b
(C) 0.09 = EBIT TTM 5.13b / Avg Total Assets 54.27b
(D) 0.61 = Book Value of Equity 19.20b / Total Liabilities 31.40b
Total Rating: 2.01 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 76.49

1. Piotroski 5.0pt = 0.0
2. FCF Yield 6.07% = 3.04
3. FCF Margin 6.79% = 1.70
4. Debt/Equity 0.89 = 2.12
5. Debt/Ebitda 1.45 = 1.04
6. ROIC - WACC (= 15.21)% = 12.50
7. RoE 19.39% = 1.62
8. Rev. Trend 73.05% = 5.48
9. EPS Trend -19.96% = -1.00

What is the price of HEIA shares?

As of October 18, 2025, the stock is trading at EUR 70.42 with a total of 1,196,351 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.32%, over one month by +6.57%, over three months by -6.74% and over the past year by -7.66%.

Is Heineken a good stock to buy?

Partly, yes. Based on ValueRay´s Fundamental Analyses, Heineken (AS:HEIA) is currently (October 2025) ok to buy, but has to be watched. It has a ValueRay Fundamental Rating of 76.49 and therefor a somewhat positive outlook according to the companies health.
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of HEIA is around 65.31 EUR . This means that HEIA is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -7.26%.

Is HEIA a buy, sell or hold?

Heineken has no consensus analysts rating.

What are the forecasts/targets for the HEIA price?

Issuer Target Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price 87.1 23.7%
Analysts Target Price - -
ValueRay Target Price 71.4 1.4%

HEIA Fundamental Data Overview

Market Cap USD = 43.56b (37.34b EUR * 1.1665 EUR.USD)
Market Cap EUR = 37.34b (37.34b EUR * 1.0 EUR.EUR)
P/E Trailing = 20.6296
P/E Forward = 13.947
P/S = 1.2798
P/B = 2.083
P/EG = 0.4681
Beta = 0.577
Revenue TTM = 45.60b EUR
EBIT TTM = 5.13b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 9.18b EUR
Long Term Debt = 12.75b EUR (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 2.95b EUR (from shortLongTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 15.71b EUR (Calculated: Short Term 2.95b + Long Term 12.75b)
Net Debt = 13.36b EUR (from netDebt column, last fiscal year)
Enterprise Value = 50.98b EUR (37.34b + Debt 15.71b - CCE 2.07b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.80 (Ebit TTM 5.13b / Interest Expense TTM 884.0m)
FCF Yield = 6.07% (FCF TTM 3.10b / Enterprise Value 50.98b)
FCF Margin = 6.79% (FCF TTM 3.10b / Revenue TTM 45.60b)
Net Margin = 8.16% (Net Income TTM 3.72b / Revenue TTM 45.60b)
Gross Margin = 11.25% ((Revenue TTM 45.60b - Cost of Revenue TTM 40.47b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 9.22% (prev 10.36%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.99 (Enterprise Value 50.98b / Total Assets 51.63b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.20% (Interest Expense 345.0m / Debt 15.71b)
Taxrate = 2.84% (32.0m / 1.13b)
NOPAT = 4.99b (EBIT 5.13b * (1 - 2.84%))
Current Ratio = 0.75 (Total Current Assets 11.08b / Total Current Liabilities 14.86b)
Debt / Equity = 0.89 (Debt 15.71b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 17.71b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.45 (Net Debt 13.36b / EBITDA 9.18b)
Debt / FCF = 4.32 (Net Debt 13.36b / FCF TTM 3.10b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 19.19b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.21% (Net Income 3.72b / Total Assets 51.63b)
RoE = 19.39% (Net Income TTM 3.72b / Total Stockholder Equity 19.19b)
RoCE = 16.06% (EBIT 5.13b / Capital Employed (Equity 19.19b + L.T.Debt 12.75b))
RoIC = 21.57% (NOPAT 4.99b / Invested Capital 23.12b)
WACC = 6.36% (E(37.34b)/V(53.05b) * Re(8.14%) + D(15.71b)/V(53.05b) * Rd(2.20%) * (1-Tc(0.03)))
Discount Rate = 8.14% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.93%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 76.78% ; FCFE base≈3.34b ; Y1≈3.09b ; Y5≈2.82b
Fair Price DCF = 89.10 (DCF Value 49.78b / Shares Outstanding 558.7m; 5y FCF grow -9.23% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -19.96 | EPS CAGR: -78.78% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 73.05 | Revenue CAGR: 22.98% | SUE: -0.03 | # QB: 0

Additional Sources for HEIA Stock

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