HEIA Stock Analysis: Heineken | AS
Beverages - Brewers | AS, Netherlands | Market Cap: 39.986m EUR | 12M Return: 13.1% | NL0000009165 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 38.4M
EPS Trend: -59.9%
Rev. Trend: 14.1%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Heineken N.V. is a Netherlands-based global brewer headquartered in Amsterdam, operating across Europe, the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific. The company produces and sells beer, cider, and soft drinks under a broad portfolio of brands, including its flagship Heineken label as well as Amstel, Birra Moretti, Tiger, Desperados, Lagunitas, Strongbow, Kingfisher, Dos Equis, and Tecate, among many others. Beyond manufacturing, Heineken engages in pub and bar rentals, wholesale activities, and pub management and technical services, distributing its products to retailers, wholesalers, bars, restaurants, cafes, clubs, and hotels. Founded in 1864, the company is a subsidiary of Heineken Holding N.V.
The global brewing industry is a mature consumer staples segment characterized by high brand loyalty, significant scale advantages, and reliance on both off-premise retail channels and on-premise hospitality venues. Large brewers like Heineken typically derive value from premiumization, emerging-market expansion, and an increasingly important non-alcoholic and low-alcohol product range to address changing consumer preferences.
- Emerging market beer volume growth drives revenue expansion
- Aluminum and barley cost inflation pressures gross margins
- Premium portfolio and Heineken 0.0 accelerate revenue mix shift
| Net Income: 2.27b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.43 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -11.14% < 20% (prev -17.14%; Δ 6.00% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 5.81b > Net Income 2.27b |
| Net Debt (19.3b) to EBITDA (5.96b): 3.24 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.75 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (548.7m) vs 12m ago -2.06% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 25.83% > 18% (prev 20.20%; Δ 5.63% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 66.57% > 50% (prev 42.78%; Δ 23.79% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.06 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.50b / Interest Expense TTM 691.0m) |
| A: -0.07 (Total Current Assets 12.2b - Total Current Liabilities 16.3b) / Total Assets 58.0b |
| B: 0.34 (Retained Earnings 19.7b / Total Assets 58.0b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 3.50b / Avg Total Assets 54.8b) |
| D: 0.53 (Book Value of Equity 19.1b / Total Liabilities 36.3b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.63 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.64 (Receivables 5.54b/5.21b, Revenue 36.5b/22.1b) |
| GMI: 0.78 (GM 20.20% / 25.83%) |
| AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.52 / AQ_t-1 0.51) |
| SGI: 1.65 (Revenue 36.5b / 22.1b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 2.27b - CFO 5.81b) / TA 58.0b) |
| Beneish M = -3.04 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 16, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 74.78 with a total of 676,711 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.65%, over one month by +4.03%, over three months by -0.67% and over the past year by +13.14%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 72.50 (which is 3% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Heineken has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 17.8812
P/E Forward = 12.987
P/S = 1.3594
P/B = 2.0541
P/EG = 1.2128
Revenue TTM = 36.5b EUR
EBIT TTM = 3.50b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 5.96b EUR
Long Term Debt = 15.0b EUR (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 4.35b EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 22.2b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.52b
Net Debt = 19.3b EUR (calculated: Debt 22.2b - CCE 2.83b)
Enterprise Value = 59.3b EUR (40.0b + Debt 22.2b - CCE 2.83b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.06 (Ebit TTM 3.50b / Interest Expense TTM 691.0m)
EV/FCF = 14.95x (Enterprise Value 59.3b / FCF TTM 3.97b)
FCF Yield = 6.69% (FCF TTM 3.97b / Enterprise Value 59.3b)
FCF Margin = 10.87% (FCF TTM 3.97b / Revenue TTM 36.5b)
Net Margin = 6.21% (Net Income TTM 2.27b / Revenue TTM 36.5b)
Gross Margin = 25.83% ((Revenue TTM 36.5b - Cost of Revenue TTM 27.1b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 10.88% (prev 36.08%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.02 (Enterprise Value 59.3b / Total Assets 58.0b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.12% (Interest Expense 691.0m / Debt 22.2b)
Taxrate = 27.43% (1.12b / 4.10b)
NOPAT = 2.54b (EBIT 3.50b * (1 - 27.43%))
Current Ratio = 0.75 (Total Current Assets 12.2b / Total Current Liabilities 16.3b)
Debt / Equity = 1.16 (Debt 22.2b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 19.1b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.24 (Net Debt 19.3b / EBITDA 5.96b)
Debt / FCF = 4.87 (Net Debt 19.3b / FCF TTM 3.97b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 18.6b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.13% (Net Income 2.27b / Total Assets 58.0b)
RoE = 12.18% (Net Income TTM 2.27b / Total Stockholder Equity 18.6b)
RoCE = 10.40% (EBIT 3.50b / Capital Employed (Equity 18.6b + L.T.Debt 15.0b))
RoIC = 5.73% (NOPAT 2.54b / Invested Capital 44.3b)
WACC = 4.03% (E(40.0b)/V(62.1b) * Re(5.01%) + D(22.2b)/V(62.1b) * Rd(3.12%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 5.01% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -92.50 | Cagr: -2.12%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈3.50b ; Y1≈4.01b ; Y5≈5.90b
[DCF] Fair Price = 125.5 (EV 88.8b - Net Debt 19.3b = Equity 69.5b / Shares 553.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -59.89 | EPS CAGR: -24.71% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 14.08 | Revenue CAGR: 2.48% | SUE: 0.90 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.25 | Chg30d=-0.49% | Revisions=-44% | GrowthEPS=+9.8% | GrowthRev=-10.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.69 | Chg30d=-0.45% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+8.4% | GrowthRev=+3.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -30% (up=2, down=5)