(MT) ArcelorMittal - Ratings and Ratios
Steel, Slabs, Coils, Plates, Pipes
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 31.6% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 45.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.26% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.14 |
| Alpha | 42.31 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.416 |
| Beta | 0.407 |
| Beta Downside | 0.616 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 35.54% |
| Mean DD | 16.77% |
| Median DD | 17.53% |
Description: MT ArcelorMittal October 14, 2025
ArcelorMittal S.A. (ticker MT) is a globally integrated steel and mining group headquartered in Luxembourg, operating across the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Africa. Its product portfolio spans semi-finished flat and long steel (slabs, coils, plates, bars, wire-rods, rails, etc.), specialty coated steel (hot-dipped, electro-galvanized, tinplate, color-coated), and seamless or welded pipes, as well as mining outputs such as iron-ore lumps, fines, pellets, and coking coal. Sales are channeled through a centralized marketing organization to end-users in automotive, appliance, engineering, construction, energy, and machinery sectors, supported by a network of distributors.
Key quantitative signals (as of FY 2023) include: • Total steel production of roughly 71 million tonnes, making the company the world’s largest steelmaker by volume; • EBITDA margin of ≈ 13 % (down ~ 2 pp from 2022, reflecting higher energy and raw-material costs); • Exposure to the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which could add ~ €0.8 billion to annual operating costs if carbon pricing remains near €80 per tonne CO₂e. Macro drivers that dominate the business are global steel demand growth (≈ 3 % YoY in 2023, led by construction and automotive recovery) and the price trajectory of iron-ore and coking coal, which together account for ≈ 55 % of total input costs.
For a deeper quantitative breakdown of ArcelorMittal’s exposure to carbon pricing and its impact on margins, the ValueRay platform offers a granular model worth reviewing.
MT Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 30,449m |
| Sub-Industry | Steel |
| IPO / Inception | 1997-08-08 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | 28.4% |
| Analyst Rating | - |
MT Dividends
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.30% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.32% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 30.55% |
| Payout Consistency | 63.9% |
| Payout Ratio | 9.0% |
MT Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | 14.33% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 0.40 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 0.85 |
| Current Volume | 2409.8k |
| Average Volume | 1576.9k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (2.58b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 3.67b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.00 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -1.00pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 14.82% (prev 15.70%; Δ -0.88pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 (>3.0%) and CFO 4.28b > Net Income 2.58b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (9.13b) to EBITDA (3.99b) ratio: 2.29 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.39 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (760.5m) change vs 12m ago -2.23% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 7.27% (prev 1.14%; Δ 6.13pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 63.66% (prev 66.85%; Δ -3.18pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 2.17 (EBITDA TTM 3.99b / Interest Expense TTM 564.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.43
| (A) 0.09 = (Total Current Assets 32.53b - Total Current Liabilities 23.48b) / Total Assets 98.77b |
| (B) 0.48 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 47.25b / Total Assets 98.77b |
| (C) 0.01 = EBIT TTM 1.23b / Avg Total Assets 95.97b |
| (D) 1.12 = Book Value of Equity 47.25b / Total Liabilities 42.09b |
| Total Rating: 3.43 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 39.94
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 0.15% |
| 3. FCF Margin 0.09% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.27 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 2.29 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -3.70)% |
| 7. RoE 4.94% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -65.83% |
| 9. EPS Trend -38.02% |
What is the price of MT shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.84%, over one month by +4.30%, over three months by +20.06% and over the past year by +44.32%.
Is MT a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the MT price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 36.5 | 7.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 38 | 11.6% |
MT Fundamental Data Overview November 16, 2025
Market Cap USD = 30.45b (26.28b EUR * 1.1586 EUR.USD)
P/E Trailing = 11.7201
P/E Forward = 9.3809
P/S = 0.4302
P/B = 0.5607
P/EG = 0.6568
Beta = 1.684
Revenue TTM = 61.09b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.23b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.99b USD
Long Term Debt = 10.49b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.38b USD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 14.87b USD (Calculated: Short Term 4.38b + Long Term 10.49b)
Net Debt = 9.13b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 39.58b USD (30.45b + Debt 14.87b - CCE 5.73b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.17 (Ebit TTM 1.23b / Interest Expense TTM 564.0m)
FCF Yield = 0.15% (FCF TTM 58.0m / Enterprise Value 39.58b)
FCF Margin = 0.09% (FCF TTM 58.0m / Revenue TTM 61.09b)
Net Margin = 4.23% (Net Income TTM 2.58b / Revenue TTM 61.09b)
Gross Margin = 7.27% ((Revenue TTM 61.09b - Cost of Revenue TTM 56.65b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 100.0% (prev 100.0%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.40 (Enterprise Value 39.58b / Total Assets 98.77b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.56% (Interest Expense 84.0m / Debt 14.87b)
Taxrate = 20.99% (106.0m / 505.0m)
NOPAT = 968.7m (EBIT 1.23b * (1 - 20.99%))
Current Ratio = 1.39 (Total Current Assets 32.53b / Total Current Liabilities 23.48b)
Debt / Equity = 0.27 (Debt 14.87b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 54.60b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.29 (Net Debt 9.13b / EBITDA 3.99b)
Debt / FCF = 157.5 (Net Debt 9.13b / FCF TTM 58.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 52.35b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.62% (Net Income 2.58b / Total Assets 98.77b)
RoE = 4.94% (Net Income TTM 2.58b / Total Stockholder Equity 52.35b)
RoCE = 1.95% (EBIT 1.23b / Capital Employed (Equity 52.35b + L.T.Debt 10.49b))
RoIC = 1.49% (NOPAT 968.7m / Invested Capital 64.85b)
WACC = 5.19% (E(30.45b)/V(45.32b) * Re(7.51%) + D(14.87b)/V(45.32b) * Rd(0.56%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.51% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -10.36%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 70.46% ; FCFE base≈430.8m ; Y1≈282.8m ; Y5≈129.3m
Fair Price DCF = 3.34 (DCF Value 2.54b / Shares Outstanding 760.5m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -38.02 | EPS CAGR: -25.05% | SUE: -0.07 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -65.83 | Revenue CAGR: -2.72% | SUE: 0.18 | # QB: 0