(UMG) Universal Music - Overview
Stock: Recorded Music, Music Publishing, Merchandising
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 29.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.1% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.68 |
| Alpha | -38.13 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | -0.103 |
| Beta Downside | -0.577 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 38.90% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.19 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: UMG Universal Music March 02, 2026
Universal Music Group N.V. (UMG) is a global music conglomerate organized into three core segments: Recorded Music, which signs and promotes artists while handling distribution across physical, digital, and live-event channels; Music Publishing, which develops songwriters and manages composition copyrights for uses ranging from recordings to film and advertising; and Merchandising & Other, which creates and sells artist-branded products and provides brand-rights services. Headquartered in Hilversum, Netherlands, the company was incorporated in 2020 and trades on the Amsterdam exchange under ticker UMG.
Key recent metrics underline UMG’s market strength: FY 2023 revenue reached €10.2 billion, with streaming contributing €5.8 billion-a 12% year-over-year increase driven by higher subscription penetration and premium ad-supported tiers. The Recorded Music segment now commands roughly 31% of global recorded-music market share, the highest among major labels, while the Publishing arm saw a 9% rise in royalty earnings as sync placements in film and advertising accelerated. Macro-level, global music-streaming revenue is projected to grow ~10% annually through 2027, bolstered by expanding broadband access and rising consumer spend on digital entertainment.
For deeper insight, you might explore ValueRay’s detailed analysis of UMG’s valuation and growth outlook.
Headlines to watch out for
- Streaming revenue growth drives recorded music segment expansion
- Music publishing catalog value appreciates with usage
- Live events and merchandise sales rebound post-pandemic
- Regulatory scrutiny on streaming royalty rates increases cost pressure
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income: 4.10b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.67 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -12.64% < 20% (prev -17.74%; Δ 5.10% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 2.83b > Net Income 4.10b |
| Net Debt (3.24b) to EBITDA (5.84b): 0.55 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.63 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.85b) vs 12m ago -0.61% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 40.90% > 18% (prev 0.42%; Δ 4048 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 124.7% > 50% (prev 111.1%; Δ 13.60% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 23.22 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 5.84b / Interest Expense TTM 220.0m) |
Altman Z'' -4.78
| A: -0.14 (Total Current Assets 4.54b - Total Current Liabilities 7.17b) / Total Assets 18.30b |
| B: -1.56 (Retained Earnings -28.55b / Total Assets 18.30b) |
| C: 0.31 (EBIT TTM 5.11b / Avg Total Assets 16.73b) |
| D: -0.76 (Book Value of Equity -10.21b / Total Liabilities 13.39b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -4.78 = D |
Beneish M -2.84
| DSRI: 0.88 (Receivables 2.50b/2.31b, Revenue 20.87b/16.85b) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 40.90% / 41.58%) |
| AQI: 1.06 (AQ_t 0.72 / AQ_t-1 0.68) |
| SGI: 1.24 (Revenue 20.87b / 16.85b) |
| TATA: 0.07 (NI 4.10b - CFO 2.83b) / TA 18.30b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.84 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of UMG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -8.90%, over one month by -12.29%, over three months by -19.17% and over the past year by -34.96%.
Is UMG a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the UMG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 29.4 | 70.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
UMG Fundamental Data Overview March 06, 2026
P/E Trailing = 15.7518
P/E Forward = 16.6667
P/S = 2.8398
P/B = 7.1426
P/EG = 2.7386
Revenue TTM = 20.87b EUR
EBIT TTM = 5.11b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 5.84b EUR
Long Term Debt = 2.18b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.13b EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.73b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.24b EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 45.33b EUR (42.12b + Debt 3.73b - CCE 525.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 23.22 (Ebit TTM 5.11b / Interest Expense TTM 220.0m)
EV/FCF = 18.32x (Enterprise Value 45.33b / FCF TTM 2.47b)
FCF Yield = 5.46% (FCF TTM 2.47b / Enterprise Value 45.33b)
FCF Margin = 11.85% (FCF TTM 2.47b / Revenue TTM 20.87b)
Net Margin = 19.67% (Net Income TTM 4.10b / Revenue TTM 20.87b)
Gross Margin = 40.90% ((Revenue TTM 20.87b - Cost of Revenue TTM 12.33b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 39.45% (prev 39.06%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.48 (Enterprise Value 45.33b / Total Assets 18.30b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.09% (Interest Expense 78.0m / Debt 3.73b)
Taxrate = 26.18% (509.0m / 1.94b)
NOPAT = 3.77b (EBIT 5.11b * (1 - 26.18%))
Current Ratio = 0.63 (Total Current Assets 4.54b / Total Current Liabilities 7.17b)
Debt / Equity = 0.77 (Debt 3.73b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.88b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.55 (Net Debt 3.24b / EBITDA 5.84b)
Debt / FCF = 1.31 (Net Debt 3.24b / FCF TTM 2.47b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.34b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 24.53% (Net Income 4.10b / Total Assets 18.30b)
RoE = 94.57% (Net Income TTM 4.10b / Total Stockholder Equity 4.34b)
RoCE = 78.36% (EBIT 5.11b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.34b + L.T.Debt 2.18b))
RoIC = 68.63% (NOPAT 3.77b / Invested Capital 5.49b)
WACC = 5.21% (E(42.12b)/V(45.86b) * Re(5.54%) + D(3.73b)/V(45.86b) * Rd(2.09%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 5.54% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.19%
[DCF] Terminal Value 87.61% ; FCFF base≈2.41b ; Y1≈2.77b ; Y5≈3.87b
[DCF] Fair Price = 60.27 (EV 113.78b - Net Debt 3.24b = Equity 110.53b / Shares 1.83b; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 17.55% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 48.42 | EPS CAGR: 1.69% | SUE: -0.19 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 40.75 | Revenue CAGR: 12.11% | SUE: 1.46 | # QB: 1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.10 | Chg7d=-0.023 | Chg30d=-0.025 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+11.4% | Growth Revenue=+6.6%