(ADTN) ADTRAN - Overview
Stock: Optical Terminals, Ethernet Switches, Software Platforms, Cloud Services
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 63.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -17.9% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.02 |
| Alpha | -33.75 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.671 |
| Beta Downside | 1.475 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 74.45% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.22 |
Description: ADTN ADTRAN December 26, 2025
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADTN) designs and sells networking and communications hardware, software, and managed services to a broad customer base that includes telecom carriers, municipal utilities, cable operators, and small-to-medium enterprises across the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and other international markets.
Operating through its Network Solutions and Services & Support segments, the company’s product portfolio spans residential gateways, Ethernet PON ONUs/ONTs (including XGS-PON), traditional SSE routers and switches, edge-cloud platforms, carrier-Ethernet interface devices, optical line terminals, packet aggregation gear, and the Oscilloquartz timing suite. Complementary software offerings such as Mosaic One SaaS, n-Command, Procloud, MCP, AOE, and ACI-E support both hardware and service-oriented revenue streams.
Recent financial snapshots (FY 2024) show revenue of roughly $1.1 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 6 %, and a GAAP EPS of $0.12. The company reported an operating margin near 7 % and a backlog of approximately $500 million, indicating a solid pipeline of fiber-deployment and edge-computing contracts. Inventory levels have risen modestly (≈ 12 % YoY), a point of operational risk that warrants monitoring.
Key macro drivers for ADTRAN include the continued rollout of 5G and the U.S. broadband stimulus programs (e.g., the Rural Digital Opportunity Fund), both of which boost demand for fiber-optic transport and edge-cloud solutions. Additionally, municipal and utility-backed fiber overbuilding projects provide a relatively insulated revenue source compared with traditional carrier cycles.
For a deeper, data-driven valuation framework, you might explore the ADTN analysis on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income: -88.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 28.53% < 20% (prev 36.90%; Δ -8.36% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 92.1m > Net Income -88.0m |
| Net Debt (150.2m) to EBITDA (35.5m): 4.23 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.96 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (79.7m) vs 12m ago 0.94% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 37.92% > 18% (prev 0.35%; Δ 3757 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 83.41% > 50% (prev 71.11%; Δ 12.30% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -3.45 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 35.5m / Interest Expense TTM 19.7m) |
Altman Z'' -1.76
| A: 0.24 (Total Current Assets 603.1m - Total Current Liabilities 307.8m) / Total Assets 1.21b |
| B: -0.60 (Retained Earnings -728.7m / Total Assets 1.21b) |
| C: -0.05 (EBIT TTM -67.8m / Avg Total Assets 1.24b) |
| D: -0.98 (Book Value of Equity -653.3m / Total Liabilities 665.2m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -1.76 = D |
Beneish M -3.29
| DSRI: 0.79 (Receivables 179.0m/198.4m, Revenue 1.04b/905.3m) |
| GMI: 0.92 (GM 37.92% / 34.86%) |
| AQI: 1.05 (AQ_t 0.40 / AQ_t-1 0.38) |
| SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 1.04b / 905.3m) |
| TATA: -0.15 (NI -88.0m - CFO 92.1m) / TA 1.21b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.29 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of ADTN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.94%, over one month by +7.88%, over three months by +22.79% and over the past year by -13.81%.
Is ADTN a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ADTN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 12.7 | 28.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 12.7 | 28.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 9.9 | 0% |
ADTN Fundamental Data Overview February 05, 2026
P/S = 0.7353
P/B = 5.2172
P/EG = 11.04
Revenue TTM = 1.04b USD
EBIT TTM = -67.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 35.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 217.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.15m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 243.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 150.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 911.3m USD (761.1m + Debt 243.8m - CCE 93.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -3.45 (Ebit TTM -67.8m / Interest Expense TTM 19.7m)
EV/FCF = 19.02x (Enterprise Value 911.3m / FCF TTM 47.9m)
FCF Yield = 5.26% (FCF TTM 47.9m / Enterprise Value 911.3m)
FCF Margin = 4.63% (FCF TTM 47.9m / Revenue TTM 1.04b)
Net Margin = -8.50% (Net Income TTM -88.0m / Revenue TTM 1.04b)
Gross Margin = 37.92% ((Revenue TTM 1.04b - Cost of Revenue TTM 642.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.34% (prev 37.32%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.75 (Enterprise Value 911.3m / Total Assets 1.21b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.26% (Interest Expense 5.50m / Debt 243.8m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -53.6m (EBIT -67.8m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.96 (Total Current Assets 603.1m / Total Current Liabilities 307.8m)
Debt / Equity = 1.72 (Debt 243.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 141.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.23 (Net Debt 150.2m / EBITDA 35.5m)
Debt / FCF = 3.13 (Net Debt 150.2m / FCF TTM 47.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 144.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -7.09% (Net Income -88.0m / Total Assets 1.21b)
RoE = -60.99% (Net Income TTM -88.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 144.3m)
RoCE = -18.73% (EBIT -67.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 144.3m + L.T.Debt 217.9m))
RoIC = -14.25% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -53.6m / Invested Capital 376.0m)
WACC = 9.57% (E(761.1m)/V(1.00b) * Re(12.07%) + D(243.8m)/V(1.00b) * Rd(2.26%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 12.07% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.74%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 64.95% ; FCFF base≈38.6m ; Y1≈26.9m ; Y5≈13.8m
Fair Price DCF = 0.71 (EV 207.4m - Net Debt 150.2m = Equity 57.2m / Shares 80.1m; r=9.57% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -35.60% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -24.12 | EPS CAGR: -4.35% | SUE: -0.21 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 30.51 | Revenue CAGR: 17.19% | SUE: 1.84 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.07 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.47 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+209.1% | Growth Revenue=+8.4%