(ADV) Advantage Solutions - Overview
Stock: Brokerage, Analytics, Merchandising, Logistics, Retail Media
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 128% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.24% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.97 |
| Alpha | -95.82 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.686 |
| Beta Downside | 1.587 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 84.34% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.41 |
Description: ADV Advantage Solutions December 26, 2025
Advantage Solutions Inc. (NASDAQ: ADV) delivers integrated business-to-consumer services for consumer packaged goods (CPG) manufacturers and retailers across North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. The firm operates three core segments-Branded Services, Experiential Services, and Retailer Services-covering everything from brokerage and shopper-research analytics to in-store merchandising, omni-channel marketing, and end-to-end retail-media solutions. Founded in 1987 and headquartered in Clayton, Missouri, the company rebranded from Karman Holding Corp. in 2016.
Key operating metrics (FY 2023) show revenue of roughly $2.0 billion, up about 8 % YoY, with an adjusted EBITDA margin near 6 %. The business benefits from two macro-drivers: (1) sustained growth in CPG advertising spend, which has risen ~5 % CAGR as brands shift toward data-rich, retail-media programs; and (2) accelerating omni-channel penetration, with retailers allocating increasing budgets to shelf-optimization and shopper-insight services. The company’s exposure to retail-media aligns with the broader sector trend where retail-media networks now capture > 10 % of total CPG ad spend.
For a deeper quantitative breakdown, you might explore ValueRay’s analyst toolkit.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0
| Net Income: -243.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.51 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 14.70% < 20% (prev 12.31%; Δ 2.39% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 24.6m > Net Income -243.9m |
| Net Debt (-187.9m) to EBITDA (68.7m): -2.74 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.20 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (339.8m) vs 12m ago 5.84% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 14.15% > 18% (prev 0.14%; Δ 1401 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 109.7% > 50% (prev 110.7%; Δ -0.97% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.98 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 68.7m / Interest Expense TTM 137.4m) |
Altman Z'' -3.35
| A: 0.17 (Total Current Assets 943.9m - Total Current Liabilities 428.9m) / Total Assets 2.99b |
| B: -0.90 (Retained Earnings -2.71b / Total Assets 2.99b) |
| C: -0.04 (EBIT TTM -134.7m / Avg Total Assets 3.19b) |
| D: -1.19 (Book Value of Equity -2.71b / Total Liabilities 2.29b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -3.35 = D |
Beneish M -3.17
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 635.4m/667.4m, Revenue 3.50b/3.75b) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 14.15% / 14.27%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.65 / AQ_t-1 0.69) |
| SGI: 0.93 (Revenue 3.50b / 3.75b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI -243.9m - CFO 24.6m) / TA 2.99b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.17 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of ADV shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -29.62%, over one month by -16.97%, over three months by -36.66% and over the past year by -72.26%.
Is ADV a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ADV price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 2.7 | 251.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 2.7 | 251.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 0.5 | -30.3% |
ADV Fundamental Data Overview February 05, 2026
P/B = 0.4521
Revenue TTM = 3.50b USD
EBIT TTM = -134.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 68.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.66b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 13.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 13.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -187.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 131.0m USD (318.9m + Debt 13.2m - CCE 201.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.98 (Ebit TTM -134.7m / Interest Expense TTM 137.4m)
EV/FCF = -14.41x (Enterprise Value 131.0m / FCF TTM -9.09m)
FCF Yield = -6.94% (FCF TTM -9.09m / Enterprise Value 131.0m)
FCF Margin = -0.26% (FCF TTM -9.09m / Revenue TTM 3.50b)
Net Margin = -6.96% (Net Income TTM -243.9m / Revenue TTM 3.50b)
Gross Margin = 14.15% ((Revenue TTM 3.50b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.01b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 15.15% (prev 14.51%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.04 (Enterprise Value 131.0m / Total Assets 2.99b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 263.8% (Interest Expense 35.0m / Debt 13.2m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -106.4m (EBIT -134.7m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.20 (Total Current Assets 943.9m / Total Current Liabilities 428.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 13.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 708.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.74 (Net Debt -187.9m / EBITDA 68.7m)
Debt / FCF = 20.67 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -187.9m / FCF TTM -9.09m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 709.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -7.64% (Net Income -243.9m / Total Assets 2.99b)
RoE = -34.39% (Net Income TTM -243.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 709.1m)
RoCE = -5.68% (EBIT -134.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 709.1m + L.T.Debt 1.66b))
RoIC = -4.45% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -106.4m / Invested Capital 2.39b)
WACC = 11.65% (E(318.9m)/V(332.2m) * Re(12.13%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 12.13% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.07%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -9.09m)
EPS Correlation: -37.20 | EPS CAGR: -11.33% | SUE: -0.66 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -61.46 | Revenue CAGR: -3.17% | SUE: -0.11 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.02 | Chg30d=+0.021 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.30 | Chg30d=+0.015 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+7.0% | Growth Revenue=+1.0%