(AFCG) AFC Gamma - Overview
Stock: Loans, Debt, Securities, Cannabis, REIT
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 11.40% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 6.62% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -20.25% |
| Payout Consistency | 85.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 108.2% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 67.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.52% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.67 |
| Alpha | -91.54 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.369 |
| Beta Downside | 1.421 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 76.86% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.41 |
Description: AFCG AFC Gamma December 22, 2025
Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (NASDAQ:AFCG) is a mortgage REIT that originates, structures, underwrites, invests in, and manages senior secured loans and other debt securities for established companies in the cannabis sector. Its loan portfolio is primarily composed of senior loans secured by real-estate, equipment, cash flows, licenses and other permissible assets.
Founded in 2020 and headquartered in West Palm Palm Beach, Florida, the company rebranded from AFC Gamma, Inc. to Advanced Flower Capital in October 2024. As a REIT, it aims to avoid federal corporate income tax by distributing at least 90 % of its taxable income to shareholders.
Key operating metrics (as of the latest 10-Q) show an asset base of roughly $180 million, a weighted-average loan-to-value (LTV) of 55 %, and a net interest margin near 6.8 %, reflecting the premium rates charged to cannabis borrowers. The portfolio’s average remaining term is about 4.2 years, providing a relatively short-duration exposure.
Sector drivers include the rapid expansion of the legal cannabis market-projected to grow at a CAGR of 18 % through 2028-and the tightening of traditional banking access, which fuels demand for specialty financing. Conversely, the REIT’s performance is sensitive to interest-rate movements; a 100-basis-point rise in the 10-year Treasury could compress its net interest spread by roughly 0.4 percentage points.
For deeper metrics and peer comparisons, see the AFCG profile on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.5
| Net Income: -22.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.12 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 347.6% < 20% (prev 686.2%; Δ -338.6% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 14.0m > Net Income -22.6m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 3.03 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (22.2m) vs 12m ago 6.61% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 94.70% > 18% (prev 0.74%; Δ 9396 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 15.84% > 50% (prev 11.71%; Δ 4.13% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -3.33 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -16.7m / Interest Expense TTM 6.89m) |
Altman Z'' 1.94
| A: 0.62 (Total Current Assets 269.5m - Total Current Liabilities 89.1m) / Total Assets 288.7m |
| B: -0.29 (Retained Earnings -84.3m / Total Assets 288.7m) |
| C: -0.07 (EBIT TTM -23.0m / Avg Total Assets 327.7m) |
| D: -0.70 (Book Value of Equity -84.1m / Total Liabilities 119.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.94 = BBB |
What is the price of AFCG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.65%, over one month by -25.94%, over three months by -29.55% and over the past year by -71.43%.
Is AFCG a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AFCG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 5.3 | 141.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 5.3 | 141.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 2 | -6.9% |
AFCG Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 8.0311
P/B = 0.3096
Revenue TTM = 51.9m USD
EBIT TTM = -23.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = -16.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 89.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 89.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 89.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 43.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 95.9m USD (52.0m + Debt 89.1m - CCE 45.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -3.33 (Ebit TTM -23.0m / Interest Expense TTM 6.89m)
EV/FCF = 6.84x (Enterprise Value 95.9m / FCF TTM 14.0m)
FCF Yield = 14.62% (FCF TTM 14.0m / Enterprise Value 95.9m)
FCF Margin = 27.01% (FCF TTM 14.0m / Revenue TTM 51.9m)
Net Margin = -43.51% (Net Income TTM -22.6m / Revenue TTM 51.9m)
Gross Margin = 94.70% ((Revenue TTM 51.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.75m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.33 (Enterprise Value 95.9m / Total Assets 288.7m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.83% (Interest Expense 1.63m / Debt 89.1m)
Taxrate = 3.13% (447.6k / 14.3m)
NOPAT = -22.3m (EBIT -23.0m * (1 - 3.13%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.03 (Total Current Assets 269.5m / Total Current Liabilities 89.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.53 (Debt 89.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 169.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.62 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 43.9m / EBITDA -16.7m)
Debt / FCF = 3.13 (Net Debt 43.9m / FCF TTM 14.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 189.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -6.89% (Net Income -22.6m / Total Assets 288.7m)
RoE = -11.94% (Net Income TTM -22.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 189.1m)
RoCE = -8.26% (EBIT -23.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 189.1m + L.T.Debt 89.1m))
RoIC = -7.03% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -22.3m / Invested Capital 316.6m)
WACC = 5.16% (E(52.0m)/V(141.0m) * Re(10.96%) + D(89.1m)/V(141.0m) * Rd(1.83%) * (1-Tc(0.03)))
Discount Rate = 10.96% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 4.38%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 85.66% ; FCFF base≈18.6m ; Y1≈17.5m ; Y5≈16.2m
Fair Price DCF = 19.64 (EV 487.6m - Net Debt 43.9m = Equity 443.7m / Shares 22.6m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -8.08% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -86.42 | EPS CAGR: -41.06% | SUE: -0.16 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -67.45 | Revenue CAGR: -19.51% | SUE: -1.01 | # QB: 0