(AGIO) Agios Pharm - Overview
Stock: Pyrimidine Kinase Activator, Phenylalanine Hydroxylase Stabilizer, TMPRSS6 siRNA
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 49.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.6% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.02 |
| Alpha | -37.38 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.905 |
| Beta Downside | 0.820 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 63.76% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.04 |
Description: AGIO Agios Pharm January 13, 2026
Agios Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: AGIO) is a Cambridge-based biotech that focuses on targeting cellular metabolism to treat rare hematologic disorders. Its flagship product, PYRUKYND (mitapivat), received FDA approval in 2022 for adults with pyruvate-kinase (PK) deficiency and is now being evaluated in Phase 3 trials for sickle-cell disease and in pediatric PK-deficiency studies, as well as in adult non-transfusion-dependent and transfusion-dependent α- or β-thalassemia.
As of FY 2023, Agios generated approximately $150 million in revenue, driven primarily by PYRUKYND sales of $30 million in Q3 2024, while maintaining a cash runway of roughly $650 million after a net loss of $300 million-typical for a company in heavy R&D expansion. Key pipeline assets include tebapivat (a PK activator in Phase 2/3 for lower-risk myelodysplastic syndrome and additional hemolytic anemias), AG-181 for phenylketonuria, and an Alnylam-in-licensed siRNA (AG-236) targeting TMPRSS6 for polycythemia vera. The broader biotech sector benefits from strong FDA approval pipelines, high-margin specialty drugs, and sustained R&D tax credits, but faces pricing pressure and competitive gene-therapy advances that could impact market share.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of AGIO’s valuation dynamics and how they compare to sector peers, you may find ValueRay’s analytical tools worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.5
| Net Income: -401.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.30 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -11.46 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 2140 % < 20% (prev 2904 %; Δ -764.9% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.30 > 3% & CFO -409.9m > Net Income -401.3m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 13.82 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (58.1m) vs 12m ago -0.50% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 84.41% > 18% (prev 0.76%; Δ 8364 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 2.82% > 50% (prev 1.83%; Δ 0.98% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -12.09 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -441.8m / Interest Expense TTM -37.0m) |
Altman Z'' -3.10
| A: 0.69 (Total Current Assets 1.03b - Total Current Liabilities 74.8m) / Total Assets 1.39b |
| B: -0.33 (Retained Earnings -453.7m / Total Assets 1.39b) |
| C: -0.28 (EBIT TTM -447.1m / Avg Total Assets 1.59b) |
| D: -4.45 (Book Value of Equity -451.5m / Total Liabilities 101.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -3.10 = D |
Beneish M -2.93
| DSRI: 1.18 (Receivables 5.03m/3.12m, Revenue 44.8m/32.9m) |
| GMI: 0.90 (GM 84.41% / 76.16%) |
| AQI: 0.60 (AQ_t 0.22 / AQ_t-1 0.37) |
| SGI: 1.36 (Revenue 44.8m / 32.9m) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI -401.3m - CFO -409.9m) / TA 1.39b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.93 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of AGIO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.32%, over one month by -3.42%, over three months by -34.19% and over the past year by -22.92%.
Is AGIO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AGIO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 36.8 | 38.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 36.8 | 38.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 26.5 | -0.3% |
AGIO Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 35.7244
P/B = 1.2468
Revenue TTM = 44.8m USD
EBIT TTM = -447.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = -441.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 44.5m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 18.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 44.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -48.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 691.8m USD (1.60b + Debt 44.5m - CCE 952.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -12.09 (Ebit TTM -447.1m / Interest Expense TTM -37.0m)
EV/FCF = -1.67x (Enterprise Value 691.8m / FCF TTM -414.1m)
FCF Yield = -59.86% (FCF TTM -414.1m / Enterprise Value 691.8m)
FCF Margin = -924.5% (FCF TTM -414.1m / Revenue TTM 44.8m)
Net Margin = -895.9% (Net Income TTM -401.3m / Revenue TTM 44.8m)
Gross Margin = 84.41% ((Revenue TTM 44.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.99m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 86.96% (prev 76.23%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.50 (Enterprise Value 691.8m / Total Assets 1.39b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 21.55% (Interest Expense 9.60m / Debt 44.5m)
Taxrate = 6.16% (44.2m / 718.0m)
NOPAT = -419.6m (EBIT -447.1m * (1 - 6.16%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 13.82 (Total Current Assets 1.03b / Total Current Liabilities 74.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.03 (Debt 44.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.28b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.11 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -48.2m / EBITDA -441.8m)
Debt / FCF = 0.12 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -48.2m / FCF TTM -414.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.42b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -25.26% (Net Income -401.3m / Total Assets 1.39b)
RoE = -28.35% (Net Income TTM -401.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.42b)
RoCE = -30.63% (EBIT -447.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.42b + L.T.Debt 44.5m))
RoIC = -29.64% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -419.6m / Invested Capital 1.42b)
WACC = 9.55% (E(1.60b)/V(1.64b) * Re(9.25%) + D(44.5m)/V(1.64b) * Rd(21.55%) * (1-Tc(0.06)))
Discount Rate = 9.25% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 1.99%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -414.1m)
EPS Correlation: -0.96 | EPS CAGR: 61.10% | SUE: 0.59 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 56.71 | Revenue CAGR: 2816 % | SUE: 1.68 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-1.83 | Chg30d=+0.052 | Revisions Net=+3 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-6.59 | Chg30d=-0.025 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+6.7% | Growth Revenue=+110.1%