(ALAB) Astera Labs - Overview
Stock: Retimers, Controllers, Switches, Modules, Software
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 117% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -15.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.83 |
| Alpha | 19.56 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.361 |
| Beta Downside | 1.913 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 63.69% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.49 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: ALAB Astera Labs January 28, 2026
Astera Labs (NASDAQ: ALAB) builds semiconductor-based connectivity solutions that enable high-performance data-center and AI workloads. Its product portfolio includes the COSMOS software suite for fleet-scale resource management, PCIe/CXL smart retimers, Ethernet cable modules, CXL memory controllers, and smart fabric switches, all marketed to hyperscalers and OEMs that design cloud-scale servers.
According to the company’s latest Form 10-Q (Q3 2025), ALAB reported $247 million in revenue, a 44 % year-over-year increase driven primarily by expanding orders for PCIe 5.0/6.0 and CXL components. Gross margins improved to 55 % as the mix shifted toward higher-value software-enabled hardware, while R&D expenses remained at roughly 30 % of revenue, reflecting continued investment in the COSMOS platform. The balance sheet shows $215 million in cash and short-term investments, giving the firm a runway through at least Q4 2026 under current burn rates. Macro-level, data-center capex is rising at an estimated 28 % annual pace, and the adoption curve for CXL is projected to accelerate to a 12 % CAGR through 2028, both of which underpin demand for Astera’s connectivity stack.
If you want a more granular, data-driven assessment, consider pulling Astera Labs’ metrics through ValueRay’s analytics platform.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 219.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.18 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 8.68 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 144.2% < 20% (prev 233.8%; Δ -89.62% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.21 > 3% & CFO 319.3m > Net Income 219.1m |
| Net Debt (-167.6m) to EBITDA (200.9m): -0.83 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 10.24 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (181.2m) vs 12m ago 2.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 75.69% > 18% (prev 0.76%; Δ 7492 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 65.93% > 50% (prev 37.58%; Δ 28.34% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.18 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 200.9m / Interest Expense TTM -100.2m) |
Altman Z'' 5.99
| A: 0.80 (Total Current Assets 1.36b - Total Current Liabilities 133.0m) / Total Assets 1.53b |
| B: 0.01 (Retained Earnings 10.3m / Total Assets 1.53b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 117.9m / Avg Total Assets 1.29b) |
| D: 0.09 (Book Value of Equity 14.7m / Total Liabilities 168.2m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 5.99 = AAA |
Beneish M 1.00
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 83.2m/38.8m, Revenue 852.5m/396.3m) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 75.69% / 76.38%) |
| AQI: 9.11 (AQ_t 0.05 / AQ_t-1 0.01) |
| SGI: 2.15 (Revenue 852.5m / 396.3m) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 219.1m - CFO 319.3m) / TA 1.53b) |
| Beneish M-Score: 2.54 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of ALAB shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -31.09%, over one month by -25.87%, over three months by -8.54% and over the past year by +38.65%.
Is ALAB a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ALAB price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 204.5 | 58.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 204.5 | 58.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 165.8 | 28.2% |
ALAB Fundamental Data Overview February 14, 2026
P/E Forward = 61.3497
P/S = 25.2729
P/B = 17.9385
Revenue TTM = 852.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 117.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 200.9m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = 4.44m USD (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 31.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, two quarters ago)
Net Debt = -167.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 20.39b USD (21.55b + Debt 31.3m - CCE 1.19b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.18 (Ebit TTM 117.9m / Interest Expense TTM -100.2m)
EV/FCF = 72.36x (Enterprise Value 20.39b / FCF TTM 281.8m)
FCF Yield = 1.38% (FCF TTM 281.8m / Enterprise Value 20.39b)
FCF Margin = 33.05% (FCF TTM 281.8m / Revenue TTM 852.5m)
Net Margin = 25.70% (Net Income TTM 219.1m / Revenue TTM 852.5m)
Gross Margin = 75.69% ((Revenue TTM 852.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 207.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 75.57% (prev 76.25%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 13.31 (Enterprise Value 20.39b / Total Assets 1.53b)
Interest Expense / Debt = -320.0% (Interest Expense -100.2m / Debt 31.3m)
Taxrate = 43.00% (33.9m / 78.9m)
NOPAT = 67.2m (EBIT 117.9m * (1 - 43.00%))
Current Ratio = 10.24 (Total Current Assets 1.36b / Total Current Liabilities 133.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 31.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.36b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.83 (Net Debt -167.6m / EBITDA 200.9m)
Debt / FCF = -0.59 (Net Debt -167.6m / FCF TTM 281.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.20b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 16.95% (Net Income 219.1m / Total Assets 1.53b)
RoE = 18.21% (Net Income TTM 219.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.20b)
RoCE = 8.43% (EBIT 117.9m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 1.53b - Current Liab 133.0m))
RoIC = 5.85% (NOPAT 67.2m / Invested Capital 1.15b)
WACC = 14.59% (E(21.55b)/V(21.58b) * Re(14.61%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 14.61% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 9.00%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 62.77% ; FCFF base≈210.0m ; Y1≈259.1m ; Y5≈441.2m
Fair Price DCF = 19.39 (EV 3.13b - Net Debt -167.6m = Equity 3.30b / Shares 170.2m; r=14.59% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 89.15 | EPS CAGR: 119.8% | SUE: 1.27 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: 92.05 | Revenue CAGR: 116.2% | SUE: 3.44 | # QB: 4
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.54 | Chg30d=+0.020 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=21
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.46 | Chg30d=+0.095 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+34.0% | Growth Revenue=+58.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.52 | Chg30d=+0.272 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+43.0% | Growth Revenue=+39.7%