(ALAB) Astera Labs - Overview
Stock: Retimers, Controllers, Switches, Modules, Software
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 91.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.6% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.89 |
| Alpha | 34.85 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.257 |
| Beta Downside | 2.039 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 63.69% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.80 |
Description: ALAB Astera Labs January 28, 2026
Astera Labs (NASDAQ: ALAB) builds semiconductor-based connectivity solutions that enable high-performance data-center and AI workloads. Its product portfolio includes the COSMOS software suite for fleet-scale resource management, PCIe/CXL smart retimers, Ethernet cable modules, CXL memory controllers, and smart fabric switches, all marketed to hyperscalers and OEMs that design cloud-scale servers.
According to the company’s latest Form 10-Q (Q3 2025), ALAB reported $247 million in revenue, a 44 % year-over-year increase driven primarily by expanding orders for PCIe 5.0/6.0 and CXL components. Gross margins improved to 55 % as the mix shifted toward higher-value software-enabled hardware, while R&D expenses remained at roughly 30 % of revenue, reflecting continued investment in the COSMOS platform. The balance sheet shows $215 million in cash and short-term investments, giving the firm a runway through at least Q4 2026 under current burn rates. Macro-level, data-center capex is rising at an estimated 28 % annual pace, and the adoption curve for CXL is projected to accelerate to a 12 % CAGR through 2028, both of which underpin demand for Astera’s connectivity stack.
If you want a more granular, data-driven assessment, consider pulling Astera Labs’ metrics through ValueRay’s analytics platform.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 198.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.16 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 7.06 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 164.5% < 20% (prev 280.5%; Δ -116.0% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.19 > 3% & CFO 263.7m > Net Income 198.9m |
| Net Debt (-109.1m) to EBITDA (123.1m): -0.89 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 12.78 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (180.6m) vs 12m ago 15.18% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 75.41% > 18% (prev 0.78%; Δ 7463 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 60.65% > 50% (prev 31.10%; Δ 29.55% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -3.70 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 123.1m / Interest Expense TTM -31.9m) |
Altman Z'' 5.90
| A: 0.85 (Total Current Assets 1.29b - Total Current Liabilities 101.0m) / Total Assets 1.40b |
| B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -34.6m / Total Assets 1.40b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 118.1m / Avg Total Assets 1.19b) |
| D: -0.24 (Book Value of Equity -30.5m / Total Liabilities 129.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 5.90 = AAA |
Beneish M 1.00
| DSRI: 0.71 (Receivables 42.9m/25.4m, Revenue 723.0m/305.7m) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 75.41% / 77.62%) |
| AQI: 11.56 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 2.37 (Revenue 723.0m / 305.7m) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 198.9m - CFO 263.7m) / TA 1.40b) |
| Beneish M-Score: 3.96 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of ALAB shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.74%, over one month by -16.12%, over three months by -21.37% and over the past year by +53.51%.
Is ALAB a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ALAB price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 199.2 | 32.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 199.2 | 32.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 180 | 19.5% |
ALAB Fundamental Data Overview January 29, 2026
P/E Forward = 68.4932
P/S = 39.9297
P/B = 21.6819
Revenue TTM = 723.0m USD
EBIT TTM = 118.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 123.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.29m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 4.44m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 31.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -109.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 27.77b USD (28.87b + Debt 31.3m - CCE 1.13b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -3.70 (Ebit TTM 118.1m / Interest Expense TTM -31.9m)
EV/FCF = 121.0x (Enterprise Value 27.77b / FCF TTM 229.4m)
FCF Yield = 0.83% (FCF TTM 229.4m / Enterprise Value 27.77b)
FCF Margin = 31.73% (FCF TTM 229.4m / Revenue TTM 723.0m)
Net Margin = 27.50% (Net Income TTM 198.9m / Revenue TTM 723.0m)
Gross Margin = 75.41% ((Revenue TTM 723.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 177.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 76.25% (prev 75.84%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 19.82 (Enterprise Value 27.77b / Total Assets 1.40b)
Interest Expense / Debt = -101.8% (Interest Expense -31.9m / Debt 31.3m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 93.3m (EBIT 118.1m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 12.78 (Total Current Assets 1.29b / Total Current Liabilities 101.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 31.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.27b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.89 (Net Debt -109.1m / EBITDA 123.1m)
Debt / FCF = -0.48 (Net Debt -109.1m / FCF TTM 229.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.10b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 16.68% (Net Income 198.9m / Total Assets 1.40b)
RoE = 18.02% (Net Income TTM 198.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.10b)
RoCE = 10.69% (EBIT 118.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.10b + L.T.Debt 1.29m))
RoIC = 8.45% (NOPAT 93.3m / Invested Capital 1.10b)
WACC = 14.21% (E(28.87b)/V(28.90b) * Re(14.23%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 14.23% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 8.83%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 58.83% ; FCFF base≈174.3m ; Y1≈175.1m ; Y5≈187.2m
Fair Price DCF = 9.46 (EV 1.49b - Net Debt -109.1m = Equity 1.60b / Shares 168.9m; r=14.21% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 85.98 | EPS CAGR: 123.4% | SUE: 1.68 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 90.96 | Revenue CAGR: 118.2% | SUE: 3.54 | # QB: 3
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.52 | Chg30d=+0.004 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=19
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.37 | Chg30d=-0.002 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+33.1% | Growth Revenue=+42.4%