(ALEC) Alector - Overview
Stock: Latozinemab, AL101, ADP037-ABC, ADP050-ABC, ADP056
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 88.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -2.72% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.61 |
| Alpha | -15.21 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.528 |
| Beta Downside | 1.531 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 90.81% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.45 |
Description: ALEC Alector January 17, 2026
Alector Inc. (NASDAQ: ALEC) is a late-stage clinical biotech focused on disease-modifying therapies for neurodegenerative disorders, chiefly by elevating progranulin (PGRN) levels to improve lysosomal function, neuronal survival, and neuroinflammation.
Its lead asset, **latozinemab (AL001)**, is a human recombinant monoclon antibody that raises PGRN and is in a pivotal Phase 3 trial for frontotemporal dementia with GRN loss-of-function mutations (FTD-GRN). Interim efficacy read-outs are slated for Q3 2024, and a positive outcome could address an estimated ~ 5,000 U.S. patients with this rare genotype, representing a high-margin niche market.
Additional pipeline programs include **AL101/GSK4527226** (Phase 2 for Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s disease) and a suite of preclinical candidates targeting amyloid-β, GCase, and tau pathology (e.g., ADP037-ABC, ADP050-ABC, ADP056, ADP063-ABC, ADP064-ABC). Alector’s strategic collaboration with GlaxoSmithKline grants GSK co-development and future commercialization rights, providing up-front and milestone payments that currently fund ~ 18 months of runway.
From a financial standpoint, Alector reported **$122 million of cash and equivalents** at the end of 2023, a **market capitalization of roughly $540 million**, and a **research-and-development expense run-rate of $85 million per year**. The broader neuro-degeneration biotech sector is growing at a **CAGR of ~12 %** driven by aging demographics and increasing payer willingness to reimburse disease-modifying therapies, which could amplify Alector’s valuation upside if its Phase 3 read-out is favorable.
For a deeper, data-driven perspective on ALEC’s risk-adjusted upside, you may find it useful to explore the analyst tools on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.5
| Net Income: -107.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.59 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -15.86 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 319.2% < 20% (prev 531.4%; Δ -212.1% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.59 > 3% & CFO -197.4m > Net Income -107.7m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 3.76 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (102.6m) vs 12m ago 6.13% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 28.05% > 18% (prev 0.85%; Δ 2719 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 16.22% > 50% (prev 11.92%; Δ 4.30% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -9.25 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -112.4m / Interest Expense TTM -13.1m) |
Altman Z'' -10.22
| A: 0.66 (Total Current Assets 300.4m - Total Current Liabilities 80.0m) / Total Assets 335.3m |
| B: -2.79 (Retained Earnings -934.8m / Total Assets 335.3m) |
| C: -0.28 (EBIT TTM -120.7m / Avg Total Assets 425.7m) |
| D: -3.37 (Book Value of Equity -934.6m / Total Liabilities 277.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -10.22 = D |
What is the price of ALEC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.70%, over one month by +15.98%, over three months by +50.77% and over the past year by +9.50%.
Is ALEC a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the ALEC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 2.1 | 7.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 2.1 | 7.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 1.6 | -19.4% |
ALEC Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 2.9877
P/B = 3.5935
Revenue TTM = 69.0m USD
EBIT TTM = -120.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = -112.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 9.61m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 8.98m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 37.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -38.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = -46.9m USD (206.3m + Debt 37.9m - CCE 291.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -9.25 (Ebit TTM -120.7m / Interest Expense TTM -13.1m)
EV/FCF = 0.24x (Enterprise Value -46.9m / FCF TTM -197.6m)
FCF Yield = 421.0% (FCF TTM -197.6m / Enterprise Value -46.9m)
FCF Margin = -286.2% (FCF TTM -197.6m / Revenue TTM 69.0m)
Net Margin = -156.0% (Net Income TTM -107.7m / Revenue TTM 69.0m)
Gross Margin = 28.05% ((Revenue TTM 69.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 49.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 59.08%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = -0.14 (set to none) (Enterprise Value -46.9m / Total Assets 335.3m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 13.62% (Interest Expense 5.16m / Debt 37.9m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -95.4m (EBIT -120.7m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.76 (Total Current Assets 300.4m / Total Current Liabilities 80.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.66 (Debt 37.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 57.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.34 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -38.6m / EBITDA -112.4m)
Debt / FCF = 0.20 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -38.6m / FCF TTM -197.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 87.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -25.31% (Net Income -107.7m / Total Assets 335.3m)
RoE = -123.0% (Net Income TTM -107.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 87.6m)
RoCE = -124.2% (out of range, set to none) (EBIT -120.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 87.6m + L.T.Debt 9.61m))
RoIC = -98.27% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -95.4m / Invested Capital 97.1m)
WACC = 11.42% (E(206.3m)/V(244.2m) * Re(11.54%) + D(37.9m)/V(244.2m) * Rd(13.62%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.54% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 10.69%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -197.6m)
EPS Correlation: 24.60 | EPS CAGR: 54.72% | SUE: 2.55 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -56.21 | Revenue CAGR: -32.19% | SUE: -0.02 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.41 | Chg30d=-0.015 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.95 | Chg30d=-0.083 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+33.3% | Growth Revenue=+104.7%