(ALRM) Alarm.com Holdings - Overview
Stock: Security, Cameras, Thermostats, Locks, Analytics
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 34.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.8% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.95 |
| Alpha | -37.40 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.890 |
| Beta Downside | 0.706 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 39.75% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.09 |
Description: ALRM Alarm.com Holdings January 12, 2026
Alarm.com Holdings (NASDAQ: ALRM) delivers a cloud-based platform that connects and manages IoT devices across residential, multi-family, small-business, and enterprise markets. Its portfolio spans security and video monitoring, smart locks, garage-door and thermostat control, AI-driven video analytics, demand-response energy programs, and a suite of SaaS tools for installers, utilities, and property managers. The company also offers a permission-based portal for account, sales, and support functions, plus professional monitoring services that leverage AI to reduce false alarms.
Key operating metrics show the business scaling: FY 2023 revenue reached roughly $1.2 billion, up about 12 % year-over-year, while subscription-based annual recurring revenue (ARR) surpassed $800 million with a churn rate near 5 %. Gross margins consistently hover around 80 %, reflecting the high-margin nature of its software and cloud services. The broader IoT security market is projected to grow at a CAGR of ~12 % through 2029, driven by increasing consumer adoption of smart home devices and utility-led demand-response incentives.
For a deeper, data-driven look at ALRM’s valuation and risk profile, the ValueRay platform provides a concise, analytics-focused overview you may find useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income: 128.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.80 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 69.74% < 20% (prev 135.3%; Δ -65.55% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 173.7m > Net Income 128.2m |
| Net Debt (674.0k) to EBITDA (222.6m): 0.00 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.06 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (58.5m) vs 12m ago -2.21% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 72.42% > 18% (prev 0.65%; Δ 7177 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 48.44% > 50% (prev 46.87%; Δ 1.57% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 10.46 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 222.6m / Interest Expense TTM 17.3m) |
Altman Z'' 3.90
| A: 0.33 (Total Current Assets 1.35b - Total Current Liabilities 654.0m) / Total Assets 2.12b |
| B: 0.23 (Retained Earnings 488.1m / Total Assets 2.12b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 181.1m / Avg Total Assets 2.05b) |
| D: 0.40 (Book Value of Equity 491.2m / Total Liabilities 1.24b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.90 = AA |
Beneish M -2.98
| DSRI: 0.86 (Receivables 111.8m/121.0m, Revenue 991.8m/923.8m) |
| GMI: 0.90 (GM 72.42% / 64.95%) |
| AQI: 1.38 (AQ_t 0.31 / AQ_t-1 0.22) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 991.8m / 923.8m) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 128.2m - CFO 173.7m) / TA 2.12b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.98 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of ALRM shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.15%, over one month by -6.00%, over three months by +2.31% and over the past year by -23.92%.
Is ALRM a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ALRM price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 66.3 | 37.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 66.3 | 37.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 45.8 | -5.1% |
ALRM Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 26.2467
P/S = 2.4546
P/B = 2.9469
P/EG = 1.5425
Revenue TTM = 991.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 181.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 222.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 488.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 509.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.07b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 674.0k USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.44b USD (2.43b + Debt 1.07b - CCE 1.07b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 10.46 (Ebit TTM 181.1m / Interest Expense TTM 17.3m)
EV/FCF = 15.72x (Enterprise Value 2.44b / FCF TTM 154.9m)
FCF Yield = 6.36% (FCF TTM 154.9m / Enterprise Value 2.44b)
FCF Margin = 15.62% (FCF TTM 154.9m / Revenue TTM 991.8m)
Net Margin = 12.92% (Net Income TTM 128.2m / Revenue TTM 991.8m)
Gross Margin = 72.42% ((Revenue TTM 991.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 273.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 90.55% (prev 65.61%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.15 (Enterprise Value 2.44b / Total Assets 2.12b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.41% (Interest Expense 4.33m / Debt 1.07b)
Taxrate = 30.22% (15.2m / 50.3m)
NOPAT = 126.3m (EBIT 181.1m * (1 - 30.22%))
Current Ratio = 2.06 (Total Current Assets 1.35b / Total Current Liabilities 654.0m)
Debt / Equity = 1.29 (Debt 1.07b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 827.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.00 (Net Debt 674.0k / EBITDA 222.6m)
Debt / FCF = 0.00 (Net Debt 674.0k / FCF TTM 154.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 777.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.26% (Net Income 128.2m / Total Assets 2.12b)
RoE = 16.48% (Net Income TTM 128.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 777.7m)
RoCE = 14.30% (EBIT 181.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 777.7m + L.T.Debt 488.9m))
RoIC = 7.17% (NOPAT 126.3m / Invested Capital 1.76b)
WACC = 6.48% (E(2.43b)/V(3.50b) * Re(9.19%) + D(1.07b)/V(3.50b) * Rd(0.41%) * (1-Tc(0.30)))
Discount Rate = 9.19% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 3.45%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 86.40% ; FCFF base≈164.7m ; Y1≈203.1m ; Y5≈346.0m
Fair Price DCF = 168.8 (EV 8.42b - Net Debt 674.0k = Equity 8.42b / Shares 49.9m; r=6.48% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -2.77 | EPS CAGR: -42.86% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.16 | Revenue CAGR: 7.53% | SUE: 1.32 | # QB: 7
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.61 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+7 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.68 | Chg30d=-0.008 | Revisions Net=+8 | Growth EPS=+6.7% | Growth Revenue=+4.1%