(ALVO) Alvotech - Overview
Stock: Biosimilar, Autoimmune, Oncology, Ophthalmology, Osteology
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 58.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -26.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.10 |
| Alpha | -73.61 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.896 |
| Beta Downside | 0.778 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 73.48% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.38 |
Description: ALVO Alvotech January 12, 2026
Alvotech (NASDAQ:ALVO) is a Luxembourg-based biotech that develops and manufactures biosimilar medicines across autoimmune, ophthalmology, bone health, and oncology indications. Its pipeline centers on high-concentration biosimilars such as AVT02 (Humira), AVT04 (Stelara), AVT06 (Eylea), and AVT03 (Xgeva/Prolia), with additional candidates targeting Simponi, Entyvio, Xolair, and an early-stage Keytruda biosimilar (AVT33).
Key metrics and sector dynamics to watch: • As of Q4 2024, Alvotech reported a cash runway of ~ $200 million, sufficient for at least 18 months of R&D spend (~ $50 million per year). • The global biosimilar market is projected to reach $78 billion by 2028, driven by patent expirations of blockbuster biologics and cost-containment pressures in Europe and the U.S. • Regulatory milestones are critical-AVT02 is slated for FDA submission in H2 2025, and AVT04 has received a positive CHMP opinion in the EU, which could unlock €1 billion in sales potential if commercialized.
For a deeper quantitative assessment of Alvotech’s valuation assumptions, you may find the ValueRay platform’s analysis useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income: 69.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 16.34 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 22.40% < 20% (prev 69.09%; Δ -46.69% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.02 > 3% & CFO -26.5m > Net Income 69.5m |
| Net Debt (1.24b) to EBITDA (72.7m): 17.06 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.42 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (300.2m) vs 12m ago 7.13% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 55.42% > 18% (prev 0.59%; Δ 5483 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 43.24% > 50% (prev 31.94%; Δ 11.30% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.89 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 72.7m / Interest Expense TTM -50.7m) |
Altman Z'' -6.14
| A: 0.09 (Total Current Assets 432.0m - Total Current Liabilities 304.1m) / Total Assets 1.41b |
| B: -1.63 (Retained Earnings -2.30b / Total Assets 1.41b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 45.0m / Avg Total Assets 1.32b) |
| D: -1.56 (Book Value of Equity -2.48b / Total Liabilities 1.59b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -6.14 = D |
Beneish M -2.88
| DSRI: 0.57 (Receivables 121.4m/145.6m, Revenue 571.2m/393.8m) |
| GMI: 1.06 (GM 55.42% / 59.01%) |
| AQI: 1.08 (AQ_t 0.34 / AQ_t-1 0.32) |
| SGI: 1.45 (Revenue 571.2m / 393.8m) |
| TATA: 0.07 (NI 69.5m - CFO -26.5m) / TA 1.41b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.88 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of ALVO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.66%, over one month by +11.79%, over three months by +1.19% and over the past year by -60.16%.
Is ALVO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ALVO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 22.2 | 333% |
| Analysts Target Price | 22.2 | 333% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 4.6 | -11.1% |
ALVO Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/E Forward = 11.2233
P/S = 2.9185
Revenue TTM = 571.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 45.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 72.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.08b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 56.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.28b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.24b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.91b USD (1.67b + Debt 1.28b - CCE 42.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.89 (Ebit TTM 45.0m / Interest Expense TTM -50.7m)
EV/FCF = -25.67x (Enterprise Value 2.91b / FCF TTM -113.5m)
FCF Yield = -3.90% (FCF TTM -113.5m / Enterprise Value 2.91b)
FCF Margin = -19.86% (FCF TTM -113.5m / Revenue TTM 571.2m)
Net Margin = 12.17% (Net Income TTM 69.5m / Revenue TTM 571.2m)
Gross Margin = 55.42% ((Revenue TTM 571.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 254.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 69.26% (prev 57.39%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.07 (Enterprise Value 2.91b / Total Assets 1.41b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.83% (Interest Expense 36.3m / Debt 1.28b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 35.6m (EBIT 45.0m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.42 (Total Current Assets 432.0m / Total Current Liabilities 304.1m)
Debt / Equity = -7.25 (negative equity) (Debt 1.28b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -176.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 17.06 (Net Debt 1.24b / EBITDA 72.7m)
Debt / FCF = -10.92 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 1.24b / FCF TTM -113.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -266.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.26% (Net Income 69.5m / Total Assets 1.41b)
RoE = -26.11% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 69.5m / Total Stockholder Equity -266.3m)
RoCE = 5.52% (EBIT 45.0m / Capital Employed (Equity -266.3m + L.T.Debt 1.08b))
RoIC = 4.26% (NOPAT 35.6m / Invested Capital 835.7m)
WACC = 6.19% (E(1.67b)/V(2.96b) * Re(9.22%) + D(1.28b)/V(2.96b) * Rd(2.83%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.22% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 6.08%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -113.5m)
EPS Correlation: 67.13 | EPS CAGR: 221.0% | SUE: 0.15 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 70.11 | Revenue CAGR: 37.24% | SUE: -0.19 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.03 | Chg30d=-0.070 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.34 | Chg30d=-0.177 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+544.7% | Growth Revenue=+44.5%