(AMSF) AMERISAFE - Overview
Stock: Workers Compensation, Disability, Medical Benefits, Death Benefits
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.59% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.29% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -25.85% |
| Payout Consistency | 91.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 83.0% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 22.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.50% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.07 |
| Alpha | -27.05 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.234 |
| Beta Downside | 0.225 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 36.47% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.20 |
Description: AMSF AMERISAFE January 25, 2026
AmeriSafe, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMSF) is a U.S.-based insurance holding company that underwrites workers’ compensation policies for small- and mid-size employers in high-risk sectors such as construction, trucking, logging, agriculture, manufacturing, telecommunications, and maritime. The firm distributes its products through a network of retail and wholesale brokers and agents, providing benefits for temporary or permanent disability, death, and related medical expenses. Incorporated in 1985, AmeriSafe is headquartered in Deridder, Louisiana.
According to the company’s most recent 10-K (filed Feb 2024), net written premiums for 2023 were $165 million, a 4.2 % year-over-year increase driven primarily by higher premium rates in the construction and trucking segments. The combined ratio improved to 96.5 % (down from 99.1 % in 2022), reflecting better loss control and expense management, while the loss ratio settled at 71.3 %. Return on equity (ROE) for the trailing twelve months stands at 8.7 %, modestly above the industry median of ~7.5 % for similar-size property-and-casualty carriers.
Key macro drivers for AmeriSafe include the health of the U.S. construction and transportation labor markets, which have expanded by roughly 2.1 % and 1.8 % YoY respectively in Q4 2023 (Bureau of Labor Statistics), and ongoing regulatory trends that could tighten workers’ compensation pricing in hazardous industries. However, the company’s exposure to severe weather-related claims in the Gulf Coast region introduces a concentration risk that remains under-disclosed in public filings. If construction employment were to stall or regulatory caps on premium rates were imposed, AmeriSafe’s growth trajectory could be materially impacted.
For a deeper quantitative dive, ValueRay’s platform provides granular financial and valuation metrics that can help you test these assumptions.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income: 49.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.52 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 71.17% < 20% (prev 170.4%; Δ -99.26% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 11.3m > Net Income 49.9m |
| Net Debt (-54.7m) to EBITDA (63.8m): -0.86 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 102.1 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (19.1m) vs 12m ago -0.21% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 42.38% > 18% (prev 0.23%; Δ 4215 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 25.60% > 50% (prev 25.12%; Δ 0.48% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBITDA TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
Altman Z'' 1.98
| A: 0.19 (Total Current Assets 222.6m - Total Current Liabilities 2.18m) / Total Assets 1.16b |
| B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 98.5m / Total Assets 1.16b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 62.9m / Avg Total Assets 1.21b) |
| D: 0.11 (Book Value of Equity 95.0m / Total Liabilities 890.2m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.98 = BBB |
Beneish M -2.48
| DSRI: 1.85 (Receivables 292.3m/161.1m, Revenue 309.7m/315.2m) |
| GMI: 0.53 (GM 42.38% / 22.66%) |
| AQI: 1.42 (AQ_t 0.80 / AQ_t-1 0.56) |
| SGI: 0.98 (Revenue 309.7m / 315.2m) |
| TATA: 0.03 (NI 49.9m - CFO 11.3m) / TA 1.16b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.48 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
What is the price of AMSF shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.20%, over one month by +3.87%, over three months by -1.19% and over the past year by -20.37%.
Is AMSF a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AMSF price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 50 | 27.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 50 | 27.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 38.1 | -2.9% |
AMSF Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 22.3714
P/S = 2.3623
P/B = 2.5924
P/EG = 1.88
Revenue TTM = 309.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 62.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 63.8m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 428.0k USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -54.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 587.9m USD (731.7m + Debt 428.0k - CCE 144.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 62.9m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 63.32x (Enterprise Value 587.9m / FCF TTM 9.29m)
FCF Yield = 1.58% (FCF TTM 9.29m / Enterprise Value 587.9m)
FCF Margin = 3.00% (FCF TTM 9.29m / Revenue TTM 309.7m)
Net Margin = 16.12% (Net Income TTM 49.9m / Revenue TTM 309.7m)
Gross Margin = 42.38% ((Revenue TTM 309.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 178.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 41.60% (prev 42.18%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.50 (Enterprise Value 587.9m / Total Assets 1.16b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 81.78% (Interest Expense 350.0k / Debt 428.0k)
Taxrate = 20.95% (3.66m / 17.5m)
NOPAT = 49.7m (EBIT 62.9m * (1 - 20.95%))
Current Ratio = 102.1 (out of range, set to none) (Total Current Assets 222.6m / Total Current Liabilities 2.18m)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 428.0k / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 274.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.86 (Net Debt -54.7m / EBITDA 63.8m)
Debt / FCF = -5.90 (Net Debt -54.7m / FCF TTM 9.29m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 264.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.13% (Net Income 49.9m / Total Assets 1.16b)
RoE = 18.86% (Net Income TTM 49.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 264.6m)
RoCE = 5.41% (EBIT 62.9m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 1.16b - Current Liab 2.18m))
RoIC = 18.80% (NOPAT 49.7m / Invested Capital 264.6m)
WACC = 6.78% (E(731.7m)/V(732.1m) * Re(6.78%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 6.78% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.39%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 77.96% ; FCFF base≈12.2m ; Y1≈8.79m ; Y5≈4.86m
Fair Price DCF = 9.19 (EV 119.2m - Net Debt -54.7m = Equity 173.9m / Shares 18.9m; r=6.78% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -32.69% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-32.69%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: -63.27 | EPS CAGR: -49.51% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 35.30 | Revenue CAGR: 1.21% | SUE: 0.97 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.54 | Chg30d=+0.010 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.27 | Chg30d=+0.058 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-5.4% | Growth Revenue=+4.5%