(AMTX) Aemetis - Overview
Stock: Ethanol, Biodiesel, Renewables, Glycerin, Alcohol
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 83.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.70% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.09 |
| Alpha | -43.30 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.382 |
| Beta Downside | 1.426 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 85.63% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.36 |
Description: AMTX Aemetis January 02, 2026
Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX) is a vertically integrated renewable fuels producer headquartered in Cupertino, California. The company’s business is organized into three segments: California Ethanol, California Dairy Renewable Natural Gas (RNG), and India Biodiesel. Across these segments it manufactures low- and negative-carbon intensity products-including ethanol, biodiesel, renewable natural gas, distilled glycerin, and USP-grade alcohol-while also marketing co-products such as wet distillers grains, corn oil, and distilled biodiesel to animal-feed operations.
Key operational metrics (2023 - 2024) indicate that Aemetis produced roughly 130 million gallons of ethanol and 15 million gallons of biodiesel, while its dairy RNG facilities generated about 1.2 MMcf/d of renewable natural gas, qualifying for Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) and Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits. The India biodiesel joint venture contributes an additional ~5 MMgal/yr of feedstock-based fuel, diversifying geographic exposure and tapping into the country’s mandated biodiesel blending targets (currently 5-10%).
Sector-wide, Aemetis benefits from two primary economic drivers: (1) the expanding U.S. federal and state incentives for low-carbon fuels-particularly the 45V tax credit for RNG and the Inflation Reduction Act’s clean fuel tax credits-and (2) the growing demand for sustainable feedstock in the livestock industry, which supports higher pricing for wet distillers grains and corn oil. However, the company’s profitability remains sensitive to ethanol price volatility and the timing of credit allocations, which have historically fluctuated with policy changes.
For a deeper, data-driven look at how Aemetis’ credit-generation profile and cash-flow outlook compare to peers, you might explore the detailed analyst models on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.0
| Net Income: -87.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -7.17 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -162.8% < 20% (prev -33.40%; Δ -129.4% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.06 > 3% & CFO -15.1m > Net Income -87.9m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 0.05 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (63.7m) vs 12m ago 34.91% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: -5.23% > 18% (prev 0.01%; Δ -524.0% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 82.42% > 50% (prev 117.8%; Δ -35.36% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.16 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -47.9m / Interest Expense TTM 48.3m) |
Altman Z'' -15.00
| A: -1.36 (Total Current Assets 15.6m - Total Current Liabilities 343.4m) / Total Assets 241.1m |
| B: -2.63 (Retained Earnings -634.6m / Total Assets 241.1m) |
| C: -0.23 (EBIT TTM -56.1m / Avg Total Assets 244.3m) |
| D: -1.18 (Book Value of Equity -641.7m / Total Liabilities 546.0m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -20.28 = D |
Beneish M -4.00
| DSRI: 0.30 (Receivables 1.65m/8.03m, Revenue 201.3m/291.4m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 0.54 (AQ_t 0.06 / AQ_t-1 0.12) |
| SGI: 0.69 (Revenue 201.3m / 291.4m) |
| TATA: -0.30 (NI -87.9m - CFO -15.1m) / TA 241.1m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -4.41 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of AMTX shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.29%, over one month by -1.26%, over three months by -25.59% and over the past year by -25.94%.
Is AMTX a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AMTX price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 13.4 | 752.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 13.4 | 752.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 1.3 | -19.1% |
AMTX Fundamental Data Overview February 09, 2026
Revenue TTM = 201.3m USD
EBIT TTM = -56.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = -47.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 66.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 286.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 286.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 281.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 386.4m USD (105.3m + Debt 286.7m - CCE 5.58m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.16 (Ebit TTM -56.1m / Interest Expense TTM 48.3m)
EV/FCF = -12.34x (Enterprise Value 386.4m / FCF TTM -31.3m)
FCF Yield = -8.10% (FCF TTM -31.3m / Enterprise Value 386.4m)
FCF Margin = -15.55% (FCF TTM -31.3m / Revenue TTM 201.3m)
Net Margin = -43.65% (Net Income TTM -87.9m / Revenue TTM 201.3m)
Gross Margin = -5.23% ((Revenue TTM 201.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 211.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -0.10% (prev -6.42%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.60 (Enterprise Value 386.4m / Total Assets 241.1m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.23% (Interest Expense 15.0m / Debt 286.7m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -44.3m (EBIT -56.1m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.05 (Total Current Assets 15.6m / Total Current Liabilities 343.4m)
Debt / Equity = -0.94 (negative equity) (Debt 286.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -304.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = -5.87 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 281.1m / EBITDA -47.9m)
Debt / FCF = -8.98 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 281.1m / FCF TTM -31.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -284.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -35.97% (Net Income -87.9m / Total Assets 241.1m)
RoE = 30.87% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM -87.9m / Total Stockholder Equity -284.7m)
RoCE = 25.75% (negative capital employed) (EBIT -56.1m / Capital Employed (Equity -284.7m + L.T.Debt 66.8m))
RoIC = -75.99% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -44.3m / Invested Capital 58.3m)
WACC = 5.98% (E(105.3m)/V(392.0m) * Re(11.01%) + D(286.7m)/V(392.0m) * Rd(5.23%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.01% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 26.71%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -31.3m)
EPS Correlation: 10.44 | EPS CAGR: 36.88% | SUE: 1.50 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 11.22 | Revenue CAGR: -2.21% | SUE: -2.14 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.17 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.29 | Chg30d=+0.003 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+78.8% | Growth Revenue=+171.7%