ARCC Stock Analysis: Ares Capital | NASDAQ
Asset Management | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 13.061m USD | 12M Return: -7.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 100M
EPS Trend: -84.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 65.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Ares Capital Corporation is a publicly traded business development company (BDC) that provides debt and equity financing to middle-market companies in the United States. Its offerings include growth capital, acquisition and recapitalization financing, mezzanine debt, restructurings, rescue financing, and leveraged buyout transactions, executed through structures such as first and second lien loans, unitranche debt, subordinated debt, and equity securities. The firm invests across a broad range of sectors, including business services, software and technology, specialty healthcare, consumer products, energy, and financial services.
ARCC targets companies with EBITDA between $10 million and $250 million, typically deploying $30 million to $500 million per transaction and $10 million to $100 million in debt investments. The firm operates regional offices in New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles, covering the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Southwest, Midwest, and Western regions. As a BDC regulated under the Investment Company Act of 1940, Ares Capital is structured to provide capital to middle-market businesses that often have limited access to public capital markets, and it generally seeks board representation in its portfolio companies.
- Fed rate cuts compress BDC net interest margins
- Middle market defaults rise as non-accruals pressure earnings
- Private credit competition pressures origination spreads
| Net Income: 1.15b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.89 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -2.85% < 20% (prev 36.10%; Δ -38.95% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 1.07b > Net Income 1.15b |
| Net Debt (15.3b) to EBITDA (1.78b): 8.64 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.87 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (718.0m) vs 12m ago 6.21% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 70.82% > 18% (prev 68.16%; Δ 2.66% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 8.92% > 50% (prev 7.62%; Δ 1.30% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.54 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.74b / Interest Expense TTM 686.2m) |
| A: -0.00 (Total Current Assets 505.0m - Total Current Liabilities 580.0m) / Total Assets 30.7b |
| B: 0.02 (Retained Earnings 705.0m / Total Assets 30.7b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 1.74b / Avg Total Assets 29.5b) |
| D: 0.85 (Book Value of Equity 14.1b / Total Liabilities 16.6b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.34 = BB |
As of July 04, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 18.73 with a total of 3,515,600 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.11%, over one month by +2.83%, over three months by +4.97% and over the past year by -7.89%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 18.20 (which is 2.8% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
Ares Capital has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.38. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ARCC.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 20.8 | 10.9% |
P/E Trailing = 11.1595
P/E Forward = 9.1324
P/S = 4.2364
P/B = 0.9184
P/EG = 3.7176
Revenue TTM = 2.63b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.74b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.78b USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 15.8b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 15.3b USD (calculated: Debt 15.8b - CCE 505.0m)
Enterprise Value = 28.4b USD (13.1b + Debt 15.8b - CCE 505.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.54 (Ebit TTM 1.74b / Interest Expense TTM 686.2m)
EV/FCF = 26.45x (Enterprise Value 28.4b / FCF TTM 1.07b)
FCF Yield = 3.78% (FCF TTM 1.07b / Enterprise Value 28.4b)
FCF Margin = 40.81% (FCF TTM 1.07b / Revenue TTM 2.63b)
Net Margin = 43.69% (Net Income TTM 1.15b / Revenue TTM 2.63b)
Gross Margin = 70.82% ((Revenue TTM 2.63b - Cost of Revenue TTM 768.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 72.08% (prev 70.39%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.93 (Enterprise Value 28.4b / Total Assets 30.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.33% (Interest Expense 686.2m / Debt 15.8b)
Taxrate = 6.20% (76.0m / 1.23b)
NOPAT = 1.63b (EBIT 1.74b * (1 - 6.20%))
Current Ratio = 0.87 (Total Current Assets 505.0m / Total Current Liabilities 580.0m)
Debt / Equity = 1.13 (Debt 15.8b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 14.1b)
Debt / EBITDA = 8.64 (Net Debt 15.3b / EBITDA 1.78b)
Debt / FCF = 14.29 (Net Debt 15.3b / FCF TTM 1.07b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 14.2b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.90% (Net Income 1.15b / Total Assets 30.7b)
RoE = 8.11% (Net Income TTM 1.15b / Total Stockholder Equity 14.2b)
RoCE = 5.79% (EBIT 1.74b / Capital Employed (Total Assets 30.7b - Current Liab 580.0m))
RoIC = 5.45% (NOPAT 1.63b / Invested Capital 30.0b)
WACC = 5.95% (E(13.1b)/V(28.9b) * Re(8.25%) + D(15.8b)/V(28.9b) * Rd(4.33%) * (1-Tc(0.06)))
Discount Rate = 8.25% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 91.11 | Cagr: 8.87%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.35% ; FCFF base≈1.14b ; Y1≈1.01b ; Y5≈842.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 13.5b - Net Debt 15.3b = -1.86b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -84.00 | EPS CAGR: -6.92% | SUE: -0.47 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 65.17 | Revenue CAGR: 10.80% | SUE: -0.06 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.48 | Chg30d=-0.02% | Revisions=+12% | Analysts=14
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.93 | Chg30d=+0.11% | Revisions=-12% | GrowthEPS=-3.9% | GrowthRev=+2.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.93 | Chg30d=+0.04% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=-0.2% | GrowthRev=+3.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +29%