(ARVN) Arvinas - Overview
Stock: Protac, Degrader, Breast, Prostate, Neurodegenerative
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 63.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.42% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.06 |
| Alpha | -46.32 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.956 |
| Beta Downside | 0.840 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 88.40% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.30 |
Description: ARVN Arvinas December 26, 2025
Arvinas, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARVN) is a clinical-stage biotech focused on engineered proteolysis targeting chimeras (PROTACs) that co-opt the body’s ubiquitin-proteasome system to eliminate disease-causing proteins. The firm’s lead assets are Bavdegalutamide and ARV-766 for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer, and ARV-471 for estrogen-receptor-positive/HER2-negative breast cancer, all currently in Phase 3 trials.
Early-stage programs include ARV-393 (BCL6 degrader) and ARV-102 (neurodegeneration) in Phase 1, plus a pre-clinical KRAS G12D degrader for pancreatic and colorectal cancers. Arvinas leverages a network of collaborations with Pfizer, Genentech, Roche, Carrick Therapeutics, and Bayer, which collectively provide up-front payments and milestone potential estimated at $200-$300 million under current agreements.
As of the latest quarterly filing (Q3 2024), Arvinas reported a cash runway of roughly $210 million and an R&D spend of $71 million, reflecting a burn rate of about $24 million per quarter. The PROTAC modality is projected by industry analysts to grow at a CAGR of ~30 % through 2030, driven by unmet oncology needs and the ability to target “undruggable” proteins-key macro-drivers for the company’s valuation.
For a deeper quantitative assessment of ARVN’s valuation assumptions, the ValueRay platform offers a concise, data-driven dashboard worth a look.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.0
| Net Income: -58.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.39 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -16.76 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 218.2% < 20% (prev 542.3%; Δ -324.1% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.39 > 3% & CFO -327.5m > Net Income -58.5m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 5.70 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (72.9m) vs 12m ago 1.11% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 99.49% > 18% (prev 0.97%; Δ 9852 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 31.05% > 50% (prev 13.80%; Δ 17.25% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -2.71 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -88.0m / Interest Expense TTM -34.4m) |
Altman Z'' -7.08
| A: 0.81 (Total Current Assets 826.3m - Total Current Liabilities 144.9m) / Total Assets 844.3m |
| B: -1.83 (Retained Earnings -1.54b / Total Assets 844.3m) |
| C: -0.09 (EBIT TTM -93.1m / Avg Total Assets 1.01b) |
| D: -5.51 (Book Value of Equity -1.54b / Total Liabilities 279.9m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -7.08 = D |
Beneish M -2.37
| DSRI: 0.93 (Receivables 26.8m/14.8m, Revenue 312.3m/161.1m) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 99.49% / 96.83%) |
| AQI: 0.55 (AQ_t 0.00 / AQ_t-1 0.01) |
| SGI: 1.94 (Revenue 312.3m / 161.1m) |
| TATA: 0.32 (NI -58.5m - CFO -327.5m) / TA 844.3m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.37 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
What is the price of ARVN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.75%, over one month by +13.95%, over three months by +34.80% and over the past year by -29.42%.
Is ARVN a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ARVN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 12.8 | -5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 12.8 | -5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 12 | -10.9% |
ARVN Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/S = 3.1455
P/B = 1.5225
Revenue TTM = 312.3m USD
EBIT TTM = -93.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = -88.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 400.0k USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.90m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 9.50m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -92.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 204.2m USD (982.3m + Debt 9.50m - CCE 787.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -2.71 (Ebit TTM -93.1m / Interest Expense TTM -34.4m)
EV/FCF = -0.62x (Enterprise Value 204.2m / FCF TTM -329.5m)
FCF Yield = -161.3% (FCF TTM -329.5m / Enterprise Value 204.2m)
FCF Margin = -105.5% (FCF TTM -329.5m / Revenue TTM 312.3m)
Net Margin = -18.73% (Net Income TTM -58.5m / Revenue TTM 312.3m)
Gross Margin = 99.49% ((Revenue TTM 312.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.60m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 100.0% (prev 100.0%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.24 (Enterprise Value 204.2m / Total Assets 844.3m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 74.74% (Interest Expense 7.10m / Debt 9.50m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -73.5m (EBIT -93.1m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 5.70 (Total Current Assets 826.3m / Total Current Liabilities 144.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 9.50m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 564.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.05 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -92.0m / EBITDA -88.0m)
Debt / FCF = 0.28 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -92.0m / FCF TTM -329.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 598.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -5.82% (Net Income -58.5m / Total Assets 844.3m)
RoE = -9.77% (Net Income TTM -58.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 598.9m)
RoCE = -15.54% (EBIT -93.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 598.9m + L.T.Debt 400.0k))
RoIC = -12.27% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -73.5m / Invested Capital 599.4m)
WACC = 9.35% (E(982.3m)/V(991.8m) * Re(9.44%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 9.44% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 9.23%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -329.5m)
EPS Correlation: 64.01 | EPS CAGR: 17.48% | SUE: 0.54 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 8.86 | Revenue CAGR: 13.22% | SUE: 0.22 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.80 | Chg30d=-0.014 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-2.94 | Chg30d=+0.032 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=-306.4% | Growth Revenue=-67.0%