(AVAH) Aveanna Healthcare Holdings - Overview
Stock: Nursing, Therapy, Hospice, Nutrition, Personal Care
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 69.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -16.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.90 |
| Alpha | 44.61 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.856 |
| Beta Downside | 1.154 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 41.40% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 2.12 |
Description: AVAH Aveanna Healthcare Holdings January 16, 2026
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:AVAH) is a diversified home-care platform that delivers pediatric and adult services across three segments: Private Duty Services (in-home skilled nursing, school-based care, day-center programs, and therapy), Home Health & Hospice (skilled nursing, therapy, social and aide services, plus hospice), and Medical Solutions (enteral nutrition formulas, supplies, and pumps). By keeping patients at home, the firm aims to reduce reliance on costly hospital and skilled-nursing-facility utilization.
Key operating metrics (FY 2023): revenue of approximately $1.2 billion, up ~7 % YoY, with an adjusted EBITDA margin near 6 %. The home-health sector is benefitting from two macro trends-an aging U.S. population that prefers home-based care and a post-pandemic shift toward cost-effective outpatient services, both of which support demand for AVAH’s private-duty and hospice offerings. Additionally, Medicare’s ongoing reimbursement reforms for home health services create a pricing environment that can enhance cash-flow stability for firms with a strong payer mix.
For a deeper, data-driven look at AVAH’s valuation and peer benchmarks, the ValueRay platform provides a concise analyst toolkit to extend your research.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 75.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.96 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 4.06% < 20% (prev -1.24%; Δ 5.30% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 89.5m > Net Income 75.5m |
| Net Debt (1.20b) to EBITDA (265.1m): 4.52 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.23 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (222.2m) vs 12m ago 14.93% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 33.45% > 18% (prev 0.31%; Δ 3315 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 132.6% > 50% (prev 120.6%; Δ 11.97% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.63 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 265.1m / Interest Expense TTM 145.6m) |
Altman Z'' -1.93
| A: 0.05 (Total Current Assets 502.6m - Total Current Liabilities 409.7m) / Total Assets 1.81b |
| B: -0.74 (Retained Earnings -1.34b / Total Assets 1.81b) |
| C: 0.14 (EBIT TTM 236.9m / Avg Total Assets 1.73b) |
| D: -0.74 (Book Value of Equity -1.33b / Total Liabilities 1.80b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -1.93 = D |
Beneish M -3.03
| DSRI: 0.99 (Receivables 317.5m/278.3m, Revenue 2.29b/1.98b) |
| GMI: 0.92 (GM 33.45% / 30.87%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.69 / AQ_t-1 0.73) |
| SGI: 1.15 (Revenue 2.29b / 1.98b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 75.5m - CFO 89.5m) / TA 1.81b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.03 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of AVAH shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.55%, over one month by -6.44%, over three months by -9.04% and over the past year by +62.19%.
Is AVAH a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the AVAH price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 11 | 40.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 11 | 40.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 9 | 14.5% |
AVAH Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 14.2857
P/S = 0.7661
P/B = 177.1132
Revenue TTM = 2.29b USD
EBIT TTM = 236.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 265.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.29b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 29.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.35b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.20b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.95b USD (1.75b + Debt 1.35b - CCE 145.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.63 (Ebit TTM 236.9m / Interest Expense TTM 145.6m)
EV/FCF = 35.80x (Enterprise Value 2.95b / FCF TTM 82.5m)
FCF Yield = 2.79% (FCF TTM 82.5m / Enterprise Value 2.95b)
FCF Margin = 3.60% (FCF TTM 82.5m / Revenue TTM 2.29b)
Net Margin = 3.29% (Net Income TTM 75.5m / Revenue TTM 2.29b)
Gross Margin = 33.45% ((Revenue TTM 2.29b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.52b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 32.19% (prev 35.76%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.63 (Enterprise Value 2.95b / Total Assets 1.81b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.61% (Interest Expense 35.1m / Debt 1.35b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 187.1m (EBIT 236.9m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.23 (Total Current Assets 502.6m / Total Current Liabilities 409.7m)
Debt / Equity = 135.7 (Debt 1.35b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 9.91m)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.52 (Net Debt 1.20b / EBITDA 265.1m)
Debt / FCF = 14.53 (Net Debt 1.20b / FCF TTM 82.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -55.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.37% (Net Income 75.5m / Total Assets 1.81b)
RoE = -135.9% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 75.5m / Total Stockholder Equity -55.5m)
RoCE = 19.20% (EBIT 236.9m / Capital Employed (Equity -55.5m + L.T.Debt 1.29b))
RoIC = 15.20% (NOPAT 187.1m / Invested Capital 1.23b)
WACC = 6.03% (E(1.75b)/V(3.10b) * Re(9.07%) + D(1.35b)/V(3.10b) * Rd(2.61%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.07% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 7.89%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.11% ; FCFF base≈53.5m ; Y1≈35.1m ; Y5≈16.0m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 490.4m - Net Debt 1.20b = -708.8m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 56.43 | EPS CAGR: -13.92% | SUE: -2.62 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.32 | Revenue CAGR: 11.46% | SUE: 1.78 | # QB: 6
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.12 | Chg30d=-0.016 | Revisions Net=-4 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.62 | Chg30d=+0.027 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+3.4% | Growth Revenue=+5.5%