(AVAV) AeroVironment - Overview
Stock: UAS, Counter-UAS, Loitering Munitions, Space Hardware, Cyber
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 101% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -25.3% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.81 |
| Alpha | 19.78 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.250 |
| Beta Downside | 1.030 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 52.52% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.82 |
Description: AVAV AeroVironment December 19, 2025
AeroVironment, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVAV) designs, develops, manufactures and supports a portfolio of robotic and autonomous systems for U.S. government agencies and commercial customers, operating through two primary segments: Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber & Directed Energy.
Its Autonomous Systems business delivers small- and medium-size uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS), command-and-control software, counter-UAS solutions, loitering-munition strike platforms, and emerging unmanned maritime and ground vehicles. The Space, Cyber & Directed Energy segment provides digital beam-forming antenna tiles, laser-communications hardware, space-qualified stabilization electronics, phased-array telemetry for hypersonic testing, directed-energy weapons, and AI-driven OSINT tools such as HaloCortex.
Key financial indicators as of the latest filing show FY 2024 revenue of roughly $1.1 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase driven largely by rising defense UAS spend, and an order backlog exceeding $1.4 billion, indicating strong forward-contract visibility. The U.S defense budget is projected to grow at ~3% annually through 2028, and the global military UAV market is expected to expand at a CAGR of ~9%, both of which underpin AVAV’s growth outlook.
For a deeper quantitative view, you may want to explore the AVAV profile on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.0
| Net Income: -69.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -8.84 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 97.70% < 20% (prev 52.95%; Δ 44.75% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.03 > 3% & CFO -194.8m > Net Income -69.6m |
| Net Debt (466.5m) to EBITDA (114.9m): 4.06 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 5.08 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (28.2m) vs 12m ago 0.10% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 25.18% > 18% (prev 0.39%; Δ 2479 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 41.15% > 50% (prev 74.72%; Δ -33.57% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.16 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 114.9m / Interest Expense TTM 48.8m) |
Altman Z'' 1.71
| A: 0.24 (Total Current Assets 1.67b - Total Current Liabilities 328.0m) / Total Assets 5.64b |
| B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 189.8m / Total Assets 5.64b) |
| C: -0.02 (EBIT TTM -56.5m / Avg Total Assets 3.33b) |
| D: 0.15 (Book Value of Equity 183.6m / Total Liabilities 1.22b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.71 = BBB |
Beneish M -1.17
| DSRI: 1.49 (Receivables 772.3m/287.7m, Revenue 1.37b/761.5m) |
| GMI: 1.55 (GM 25.18% / 39.14%) |
| AQI: 1.59 (AQ_t 0.66 / AQ_t-1 0.41) |
| SGI: 1.80 (Revenue 1.37b / 761.5m) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI -69.6m - CFO -194.8m) / TA 5.64b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -1.17 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of AVAV shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.61%, over one month by -18.87%, over three months by -21.64% and over the past year by +43.63%.
Is AVAV a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AVAV price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 391.4 | 52.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 391.4 | 52.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 345.9 | 34.5% |
AVAV Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/S = 9.8412
P/B = 3.1459
P/EG = 1.7155
Revenue TTM = 1.37b USD
EBIT TTM = -56.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 114.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 726.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 14.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 825.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 466.5m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 13.95b USD (13.48b + Debt 825.9m - CCE 359.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.16 (Ebit TTM -56.5m / Interest Expense TTM 48.8m)
EV/FCF = -67.31x (Enterprise Value 13.95b / FCF TTM -207.2m)
FCF Yield = -1.49% (FCF TTM -207.2m / Enterprise Value 13.95b)
FCF Margin = -15.13% (FCF TTM -207.2m / Revenue TTM 1.37b)
Net Margin = -5.08% (Net Income TTM -69.6m / Revenue TTM 1.37b)
Gross Margin = 25.18% ((Revenue TTM 1.37b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.02b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 17.36% (prev 20.92%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.47 (Enterprise Value 13.95b / Total Assets 5.64b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.65% (Interest Expense 30.2m / Debt 825.9m)
Taxrate = 1.98% (882.0k / 44.5m)
NOPAT = -55.4m (EBIT -56.5m * (1 - 1.98%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 5.08 (Total Current Assets 1.67b / Total Current Liabilities 328.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.19 (Debt 825.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.42b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.06 (Net Debt 466.5m / EBITDA 114.9m)
Debt / FCF = -2.25 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 466.5m / FCF TTM -207.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.65b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.09% (Net Income -69.6m / Total Assets 5.64b)
RoE = -2.63% (Net Income TTM -69.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.65b)
RoCE = -1.67% (EBIT -56.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.65b + L.T.Debt 726.8m))
RoIC = -1.83% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -55.4m / Invested Capital 3.03b)
WACC = 10.12% (E(13.48b)/V(14.31b) * Re(10.52%) + D(825.9m)/V(14.31b) * Rd(3.65%) * (1-Tc(0.02)))
Discount Rate = 10.52% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 2.23%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -207.2m)
EPS Correlation: 18.50 | EPS CAGR: -16.47% | SUE: -2.49 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 89.46 | Revenue CAGR: 55.57% | SUE: 0.33 | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-04-30): EPS=3.45 | Chg30d=-0.012 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+5.3% | Growth Revenue=+142.2%
EPS next Year (2027-04-30): EPS=4.61 | Chg30d=-0.005 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+33.4% | Growth Revenue=+17.4%