(AVDL) Avadel Pharmaceuticals - Overview
Exchange: NASDAQ •
Country: Ireland •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: IE00BDGMC594
Stock: Sodium Oxybate, Narcolepsy Treatment, Daytime Sleepiness, Cataplexy
Total Rating 58
Risk 40
Buy Signal 0.80
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 21.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -21.7% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.19 |
| Alpha | 148.45 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.679 |
| Beta Downside | 0.933 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 64.98% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.64 |
Description: AVDL Avadel Pharmaceuticals January 20, 2026
Avadel Pharmaceuticals plc (NASDAQ:AVDL) is a Dublin-based biopharma focused on developing and commercializing treatments for central nervous system disorders in the United States. Its lead asset, LUMRYZ-a sodium oxybate formulation-is currently in a Phase 3 trial targeting cataplexy and excessive daytime sleepiness in narcolepsy patients aged seven and older.
Key industry context: the global narcolepsy market is projected to grow at a CAGR of roughly 6% through 2028, driven by increasing diagnostic rates and unmet patient needs. Sodium oxybate already commands a premium price point (≈ $30,000 / patient / year) in its approved indications, suggesting strong revenue upside if LUMRYZ secures FDA approval. Avadel’s latest 10-Q (Q3 2024) reported a cash runway of about 18 months and a research-and-development spend of $22 million, underscoring the importance of a successful Phase 3 readout.
Investors should monitor the trial’s primary endpoint timing (expected Q4 2024) and any competitive developments from larger players such as Jazz Pharmaceuticals, which recently expanded its sodium oxybate portfolio. For a deeper dive into AVDL’s valuation and risk profile, check out the analysis on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: -278.0k TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.18 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 70.08 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 44.16% < 20% (prev 61.14%; Δ -16.99% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 35.6m > Net Income -278.0k |
| Net Debt (-42.4m) to EBITDA (10.1m): -4.19 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.76 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (101.3m) vs 12m ago 5.17% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 94.47% > 18% (prev 0.92%; Δ 9355 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 139.0% > 50% (prev 87.30%; Δ 51.65% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.66 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 10.1m / Interest Expense TTM 9.71m) |
Altman Z'' -15.00
| A: 0.55 (Total Current Assets 172.2m - Total Current Liabilities 62.5m) / Total Assets 199.4m |
| B: -3.96 (Retained Earnings -789.6m / Total Assets 199.4m) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 6.45m / Avg Total Assets 178.9m) |
| D: -8.02 (Book Value of Equity -812.2m / Total Liabilities 101.2m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -17.48 = D |
Beneish M -2.89
| DSRI: 0.64 (Receivables 42.4m/37.1m, Revenue 248.5m/138.2m) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 94.47% / 91.92%) |
| AQI: 1.11 (AQ_t 0.12 / AQ_t-1 0.11) |
| SGI: 1.80 (Revenue 248.5m / 138.2m) |
| TATA: -0.18 (NI -278.0k - CFO 35.6m) / TA 199.4m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.89 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of AVDL shares?
As of February 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 21.69 with a total of 1,077,043 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.65%, over one month by +0.88%, over three months by +15.93% and over the past year by +171.13%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.65%, over one month by +0.88%, over three months by +15.93% and over the past year by +171.13%.
Is AVDL a buy, sell or hold?
Avadel Pharmaceuticals has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.75.
Therefore, it is recommended to buy AVDL.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AVDL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 20.9 | -3.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 20.9 | -3.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 28.3 | 30.7% |
AVDL Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/E Forward = 16.7785
P/S = 8.5111
P/B = 21.5339
P/EG = 0.07
Revenue TTM = 248.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 6.45m USD
EBITDA TTM = 10.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.55m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 740.0k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 37.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -42.4m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.06b USD (2.12b + Debt 37.4m - CCE 91.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.66 (Ebit TTM 6.45m / Interest Expense TTM 9.71m)
EV/FCF = 58.21x (Enterprise Value 2.06b / FCF TTM 35.4m)
FCF Yield = 1.72% (FCF TTM 35.4m / Enterprise Value 2.06b)
FCF Margin = 14.25% (FCF TTM 35.4m / Revenue TTM 248.5m)
Net Margin = -0.11% (Net Income TTM -278.0k / Revenue TTM 248.5m)
Gross Margin = 94.47% ((Revenue TTM 248.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 13.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 90.66%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 10.33 (Enterprise Value 2.06b / Total Assets 199.4m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.46% (Interest Expense 2.42m / Debt 37.4m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 5.10m (EBIT 6.45m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 2.76 (Total Current Assets 172.2m / Total Current Liabilities 62.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.38 (Debt 37.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 98.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = -4.19 (Net Debt -42.4m / EBITDA 10.1m)
Debt / FCF = -1.20 (Net Debt -42.4m / FCF TTM 35.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 84.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.16% (Net Income -278.0k / Total Assets 199.4m)
RoE = -0.33% (Net Income TTM -278.0k / Total Stockholder Equity 84.2m)
RoCE = 7.44% (EBIT 6.45m / Capital Employed (Equity 84.2m + L.T.Debt 2.55m))
RoIC = 6.05% (NOPAT 5.10m / Invested Capital 84.2m)
WACC = 8.36% (E(2.12b)/V(2.15b) * Re(8.42%) + D(37.4m)/V(2.15b) * Rd(6.46%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.42% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 8.56%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 74.60% ; FCFF base≈35.4m ; Y1≈31.1m ; Y5≈25.3m
Fair Price DCF = 4.79 (EV 428.1m - Net Debt -42.4m = Equity 470.5m / Shares 98.2m; r=8.36% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.00% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 83.61 | EPS CAGR: 16.33% | SUE: -1.76 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 94.38 | Revenue CAGR: 197.4% | SUE: 1.12 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.11 | Chg30d=-0.015 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.78 | Chg30d=-0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+182.6% | Growth Revenue=+29.3%
P/S = 8.5111
P/B = 21.5339
P/EG = 0.07
Revenue TTM = 248.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 6.45m USD
EBITDA TTM = 10.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.55m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 740.0k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 37.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -42.4m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.06b USD (2.12b + Debt 37.4m - CCE 91.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.66 (Ebit TTM 6.45m / Interest Expense TTM 9.71m)
EV/FCF = 58.21x (Enterprise Value 2.06b / FCF TTM 35.4m)
FCF Yield = 1.72% (FCF TTM 35.4m / Enterprise Value 2.06b)
FCF Margin = 14.25% (FCF TTM 35.4m / Revenue TTM 248.5m)
Net Margin = -0.11% (Net Income TTM -278.0k / Revenue TTM 248.5m)
Gross Margin = 94.47% ((Revenue TTM 248.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 13.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 90.66%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 10.33 (Enterprise Value 2.06b / Total Assets 199.4m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.46% (Interest Expense 2.42m / Debt 37.4m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 5.10m (EBIT 6.45m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 2.76 (Total Current Assets 172.2m / Total Current Liabilities 62.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.38 (Debt 37.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 98.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = -4.19 (Net Debt -42.4m / EBITDA 10.1m)
Debt / FCF = -1.20 (Net Debt -42.4m / FCF TTM 35.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 84.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.16% (Net Income -278.0k / Total Assets 199.4m)
RoE = -0.33% (Net Income TTM -278.0k / Total Stockholder Equity 84.2m)
RoCE = 7.44% (EBIT 6.45m / Capital Employed (Equity 84.2m + L.T.Debt 2.55m))
RoIC = 6.05% (NOPAT 5.10m / Invested Capital 84.2m)
WACC = 8.36% (E(2.12b)/V(2.15b) * Re(8.42%) + D(37.4m)/V(2.15b) * Rd(6.46%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.42% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 8.56%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 74.60% ; FCFF base≈35.4m ; Y1≈31.1m ; Y5≈25.3m
Fair Price DCF = 4.79 (EV 428.1m - Net Debt -42.4m = Equity 470.5m / Shares 98.2m; r=8.36% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.00% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 83.61 | EPS CAGR: 16.33% | SUE: -1.76 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 94.38 | Revenue CAGR: 197.4% | SUE: 1.12 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.11 | Chg30d=-0.015 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.78 | Chg30d=-0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+182.6% | Growth Revenue=+29.3%