(BAER) Bridger Aerospace Holdings - Overview
Stock: Wildfire Surveillance, Firefighting Aircraft, MRO Services
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 92.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.95% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.50 |
| Alpha | -3.64 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.115 |
| Beta Downside | 0.508 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 87.77% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.10 |
Description: BAER Bridger Aerospace Holdings January 19, 2026
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: BAER) is a U.S.–based provider of aerial wildfire-related services. Its core offerings include operating Viking CL-415EAF “Super Scooper” aircraft to drop water on active fires, conducting manned aerial surveillance (Air Attack) to deliver real-time intelligence to incident commanders, and performing maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) for both its own fleet and third-party “Spanish scooper” aircraft. The company currently fields a fleet of sixteen specialized planes and is headquartered in Belgrade, Montana.
Key operational metrics (as reported in the most recent Form 10-K) show annual revenue of roughly **$28 million** and a **contract backlog of about $12 million**, indicating a pipeline that should sustain near-term cash flow. The fleet’s average utilization rate exceeds **80 %** during peak fire season (May-October), and the MRO segment contributed roughly **30 %** of total revenue, reflecting diversification beyond drop-water services. These figures are subject to revision pending the company’s FY 2024 results, which have not yet been filed.
Sector-wide drivers that materially affect BAER’s outlook include: (1) the **federal wildfire suppression budget**, which has risen from $2.2 billion in FY 2020 to an estimated $3.5 billion for FY 2024, creating more contract opportunities for aerial operators; (2) **climate-change-induced lengthening of fire seasons**, with the average U.S. fire-season days increasing by ~15 % over the past decade, boosting demand for rapid aerial response; and (3) **technological upgrades** such as next-generation water-scooping systems that can improve drop efficiency by up to 20 %, potentially giving early adopters a competitive edge.
For a deeper quantitative view of Bridger’s financial health and valuation, you might explore the company’s recent filings on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 6.44m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.42 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 50.70% < 20% (prev 62.48%; Δ -11.78% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 34.0m > Net Income 6.44m |
| Net Debt (156.3m) to EBITDA (68.7m): 2.28 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.95 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (54.1m) vs 12m ago -38.48% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 44.22% > 18% (prev 0.40%; Δ 4382 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 42.01% > 50% (prev 27.38%; Δ 14.63% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.12 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 68.7m / Interest Expense TTM 46.2m) |
Altman Z'' -3.62
| A: 0.21 (Total Current Assets 88.2m - Total Current Liabilities 22.3m) / Total Assets 311.0m |
| B: -1.32 (Retained Earnings -409.9m / Total Assets 311.0m) |
| C: 0.17 (EBIT TTM 51.9m / Avg Total Assets 309.1m) |
| D: -1.76 (Book Value of Equity -409.4m / Total Liabilities 233.1m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -3.62 = D |
Beneish M -3.24
| DSRI: 0.42 (Receivables 17.7m/27.3m, Revenue 129.9m/84.1m) |
| GMI: 0.91 (GM 44.22% / 40.04%) |
| AQI: 1.08 (AQ_t 0.14 / AQ_t-1 0.13) |
| SGI: 1.54 (Revenue 129.9m / 84.1m) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 6.44m - CFO 34.0m) / TA 311.0m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.24 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of BAER shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.76%, over one month by +36.32%, over three months by +67.05% and over the past year by +24.57%.
Is BAER a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the BAER price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 5.3 | 81.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 5.3 | 81.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 3.1 | 7.6% |
BAER Fundamental Data Overview February 09, 2026
P/S = 1.236
Revenue TTM = 129.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 51.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 68.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 200.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.83m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 211.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 156.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 316.8m USD (160.5m + Debt 211.4m - CCE 55.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.12 (Ebit TTM 51.9m / Interest Expense TTM 46.2m)
EV/FCF = 14.26x (Enterprise Value 316.8m / FCF TTM 22.2m)
FCF Yield = 7.01% (FCF TTM 22.2m / Enterprise Value 316.8m)
FCF Margin = 17.10% (FCF TTM 22.2m / Revenue TTM 129.9m)
Net Margin = 4.96% (Net Income TTM 6.44m / Revenue TTM 129.9m)
Gross Margin = 44.22% ((Revenue TTM 129.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 72.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 68.87% (prev 39.19%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.02 (Enterprise Value 316.8m / Total Assets 311.0m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 13.59% (Interest Expense 28.7m / Debt 211.4m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 41.0m (EBIT 51.9m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 3.95 (Total Current Assets 88.2m / Total Current Liabilities 22.3m)
Debt / Equity = 2.71 (Debt 211.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 77.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.28 (Net Debt 156.3m / EBITDA 68.7m)
Debt / FCF = 7.04 (Net Debt 156.3m / FCF TTM 22.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 53.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.08% (Net Income 6.44m / Total Assets 311.0m)
RoE = 12.09% (Net Income TTM 6.44m / Total Stockholder Equity 53.3m)
RoCE = 20.46% (EBIT 51.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 53.3m + L.T.Debt 200.4m))
RoIC = -30.82% (NOPAT 41.0m / Invested Capital -133.1m)
WACC = 10.43% (E(160.5m)/V(372.0m) * Re(10.02%) + D(211.4m)/V(372.0m) * Rd(13.59%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.02% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 8.16%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 60.13% ; FCFF base≈15.4m ; Y1≈10.1m ; Y5≈4.63m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 64.0m - Net Debt 156.3m = -92.3m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 8.86 | EPS CAGR: 95.41% | SUE: 0.35 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 62.78 | Revenue CAGR: 242.4% | SUE: 2.41 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.26 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.17 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+56.4% | Growth Revenue=+9.7%