(BCRX) BioCryst Pharmaceuticals - Overview
Stock: Antiviral, HAE, Complement, Factor D, Plasma Kallikrein
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 54.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -14.6% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.50 |
| Alpha | -39.14 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.792 |
| Beta Downside | 0.639 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 60.06% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.25 |
Description: BCRX BioCryst Pharmaceuticals January 15, 2026
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:BCRX) is a U.S. biotech focused on oral small-molecule and injectable protein therapeutics for rare diseases, currently commercializing peramivir (RAPIVAB, RAPIACTA, PERAMIFLU) for acute uncomplicated influenza and ORLADEYO, an oral serine protease inhibitor for hereditary angioedema (HAE).
The pipeline includes BCX17725 (phase 1 protein therapeutic for Netherton syndrome), Avoralstat (pre-clinical ocular plasma kallikrein inhibitor for diabetic macular edema), BCX10013 (oral Factor D inhibitor for complement-mediated diseases), plus oral C5 and C2 inhibitors targeting broader complement disorders.
BioCryst leverages a network of collaborations and in-license agreements with partners such as Torii Pharmaceutical, Shionogi, Green Cross, the NIAID, BARDA, HHS, UAB, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, and Industrial Research Ltd., providing both development funding and market access pathways.
Key recent metrics: Q3 2025 revenue of $45 million (≈ 30 % YoY growth driven by ORLADEYO uptake), cash and equivalents of $210 million giving ~ 18 months of runway at current burn, and an R&D spend of $85 million representing ~ 40 % of total expenses-indicative of a heavy pipeline-focused cost structure. The rare-disease biotech sector is projected to grow at a CAGR of ~ 12 % through 2030, buoyed by premium pricing and favorable reimbursement trends for orphan drugs, which could amplify BioCryst’s valuation upside if its pipeline advances.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of BCRX’s risk-adjusted upside, you may find ValueRay’s analyst toolkit useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: -8.78m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 22.15 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 27.58% < 20% (prev 66.30%; Δ -38.72% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 49.7m > Net Income -8.78m |
| Net Debt (599.0m) to EBITDA (83.9m): 7.14 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.87 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (219.9m) vs 12m ago 6.27% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 127.9% > 50% (prev 83.98%; Δ 43.95% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.93 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 83.9m / Interest Expense TTM 89.2m) |
Altman Z'' -11.38
| A: 0.37 (Total Current Assets 355.7m - Total Current Liabilities 190.2m) / Total Assets 446.4m |
| B: -3.92 (Retained Earnings -1.75b / Total Assets 446.4m) |
| C: 0.18 (EBIT TTM 82.6m / Avg Total Assets 468.8m) |
| D: -2.10 (Book Value of Equity -1.75b / Total Liabilities 834.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -11.38 = D |
Beneish M -2.39
| DSRI: 0.87 (Receivables 91.3m/72.5m, Revenue 599.8m/412.6m) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 97.33% / 98.10%) |
| AQI: 1.92 (AQ_t 0.16 / AQ_t-1 0.08) |
| SGI: 1.45 (Revenue 599.8m / 412.6m) |
| TATA: -0.13 (NI -8.78m - CFO 49.7m) / TA 446.4m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.39 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
What is the price of BCRX shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.04%, over one month by -15.83%, over three months by -9.25% and over the past year by -26.92%.
Is BCRX a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the BCRX price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 21.7 | 239.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 21.7 | 239.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 5.7 | -11.3% |
BCRX Fundamental Data Overview February 05, 2026
P/S = 2.7706
P/B = 56.5858
P/EG = -0.28
Revenue TTM = 599.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 82.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 83.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 633.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 39.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 683.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 599.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.13b USD (1.66b + Debt 683.1m - CCE 212.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.93 (Ebit TTM 82.6m / Interest Expense TTM 89.2m)
EV/FCF = 45.04x (Enterprise Value 2.13b / FCF TTM 47.3m)
FCF Yield = 2.22% (FCF TTM 47.3m / Enterprise Value 2.13b)
FCF Margin = 7.89% (FCF TTM 47.3m / Revenue TTM 599.8m)
Net Margin = -1.46% (Net Income TTM -8.78m / Revenue TTM 599.8m)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 599.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 16.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.78 (Enterprise Value 2.13b / Total Assets 446.4m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.88% (Interest Expense 19.7m / Debt 683.1m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 65.2m (EBIT 82.6m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.87 (Total Current Assets 355.7m / Total Current Liabilities 190.2m)
Debt / Equity = -1.76 (negative equity) (Debt 683.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -387.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 7.14 (Net Debt 599.0m / EBITDA 83.9m)
Debt / FCF = 12.65 (Net Debt 599.0m / FCF TTM 47.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -434.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.87% (Net Income -8.78m / Total Assets 446.4m)
RoE = 2.02% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM -8.78m / Total Stockholder Equity -434.3m)
RoCE = 41.46% (EBIT 82.6m / Capital Employed (Equity -434.3m + L.T.Debt 633.5m))
RoIC = 22.40% (NOPAT 65.2m / Invested Capital 291.2m)
WACC = 6.92% (E(1.66b)/V(2.34b) * Re(8.83%) + D(683.1m)/V(2.34b) * Rd(2.88%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.83% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 4.49%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 76.07% ; FCFF base≈47.3m ; Y1≈32.1m ; Y5≈15.6m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 376.0m - Net Debt 599.0m = -223.0m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 91.79 | EPS CAGR: 131.3% | SUE: -0.37 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.38 | Revenue CAGR: 38.37% | SUE: -0.59 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.11 | Chg30d=-0.010 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.40 | Chg30d=+0.084 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-19.1% | Growth Revenue=+6.1%