BLMN Stock Analysis: Bloomin Brands | NASDAQ

Restaurants | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 931m USD | 12M Return: 74.1% | US0942351083 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Casual Dining, Fine Dining, Italian Cuisine, Steakhouse
Total Rating 54
Safety 37
Buy Signal 0.69
Restaurants
Industry Rotation: -2.8
Market Cap: 931M
Avg Turnover: 17.0M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility63.5%
VaR 5th Pctl10.2%
VaR vs Median-2.70%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.02
Rel. Str. IBD93.7
Rel. Str. Peer Group87.1
Character TTM
Beta1.835
Beta Downside0.659
Hurst Exponent0.427
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD80.50%
CAGR/Max DD-0.27
CAGR/Mean DD-0.44
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of BLMN over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.81, "2021-09": 0.57, "2021-12": 0.6, "2022-03": 0.8, "2022-06": 0.68, "2022-09": 0.35, "2022-12": 0.68, "2023-03": 0.98, "2023-06": 0.7, "2023-09": 0.44, "2023-12": 0.75, "2024-03": 0.7, "2024-06": 0.51, "2024-09": 0.21, "2024-12": 0.22, "2025-03": 0.58, "2025-06": 0.33, "2025-09": -0.03, "2025-12": 0.26, "2026-03": 0.67, "2026-06": 0.39,
EPS CAGR: -31.76%
EPS Trend: -94.0%
Last SUE: 1.33
Qual. Beats: 2
Revenue Revenue of BLMN over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 1077.366, 2021-09: 1010.463, 2021-12: 1047.083, 2022-03: 1140.535, 2022-06: 1125.162, 2022-09: 1055.763, 2022-12: 1095.048, 2023-03: 1244.746, 2023-06: 1152.694, 2023-09: 1079.833, 2023-12: 1194.197, 2024-03: 1069.073, 2024-06: 1118.866, 2024-09: 1038.771, 2024-12: 597.511, 2025-03: 1049.594, 2025-06: 1002.366, 2025-09: 928.813, 2025-12: 975.223, 2026-03: 1059.673, 2026-06: 1015.809,
Rev. CAGR: -7.47%
Rev. Trend: -75.8%
Last SUE: 0.08
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

High Debt/EBITDA With Thin Interest Coverage
Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone
Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

Rs Leader
Idiosyncratic Leader

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan +1.1% 28
Feb +3.0% 31
Mar +0.0% 10
Apr +7.5% 20
May -1.6% 15
Jun -1.0% 15
Jul +0.9% 10
Aug +1.4% 0
Sep +0.0% 0
Oct +0.1% 0
Nov +4.4% 12
Dec -4.2% 28

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: BLMN Bloomin Brands

Bloomin Brands (NASDAQ: BLMN) is a Tampa, Florida-based restaurant company founded in 1988 that owns and operates a portfolio of four dining concepts in the United States and internationally. Its brands include Outback Steakhouse, Carrabbas Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill, and Flemings Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, spanning casual, polished-casual, and fine dining formats.

The company operates through U.S. and International Franchise segments, combining company-owned locations with a franchised distribution model that extends its brands into foreign markets. Bloomin Brands is classified in the GICS Restaurants sub-industry within Consumer Discretionary, a sector whose performance is closely tied to discretionary consumer spending, and trades as a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of roughly $710 million after its August 2012 IPO.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Outback Steakhouse same-store sales drive consolidated revenue growth
  • Beef and commodity cost inflation pressures restaurant-level margins
  • Brazil international segment currency translation and demand volatility
  • Debt reduction and share repurchase program execution returns capital
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 5.0
Net Income: 27.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.43 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -15.44% < 20% (prev -12.07%; Δ -3.37% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 278.5m > Net Income 27.7m
Net Debt (3.07b) to EBITDA (233.7m): 13.12 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.25 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (86.2m) vs 12m ago 1.27% < -2%
Gross Margin: 40.14% > 18% (prev 29.52%; Δ 10.61% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 123.9% > 50% (prev 111.5%; Δ 12.35% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.11 > 6 (EBIT TTM 52.3m / Interest Expense TTM 47.0m)
Altman Z'' -1.88
A: -0.20 (Total Current Assets 209.6m - Total Current Liabilities 824.0m) / Total Assets 3.12b
B: -0.27 (Retained Earnings -830.6m / Total Assets 3.12b)
C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 52.3m / Avg Total Assets 3.21b)
D: 0.16 (Book Value of Equity 431.8m / Total Liabilities 2.68b)
Altman-Z'' = -1.88 = D
Beneish M -3.81
DSRI: 0.22 (Receivables 42.0m/179.6m, Revenue 3.98b/3.69b)
GMI: 0.74 (GM 29.52% / 40.14%)
AQI: 1.09 (AQ_t 0.33 / AQ_t-1 0.31)
SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 3.98b / 3.69b)
TATA: -0.08 (NI 27.7m - CFO 278.5m) / TA 3.12b)
Beneish M = -3.81 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA
What is the price of BLMN shares?

As of August 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 11.39 with a total of 1,537,418 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.88%, over one month by +34.95%, over three months by +36.90% and over the past year by +74.14%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 10.50 (which is 7.8% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is BLMN a buy, sell or hold?

Bloomin Brands has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold BLMN.

  • StrongBuy: 1
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 10
  • Sell: 2
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the BLMN price?
Analysts Target Price 8.7 -23.6%
Bloomin Brands (BLMN) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 08 August 2026
Market Cap USD = 931.5m (931.5m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 37.5172
P/E Forward = 6.2461
P/S = 0.2341
P/B = 1.8745
P/EG = 1.07
Revenue TTM = 3.98b USD
EBIT TTM = 52.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 233.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 787.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 176.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.13b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.22b
Net Debt = 3.07b USD (calculated: Debt 3.13b - CCE 66.6m)
Enterprise Value = 4.00b USD (931.5m + Debt 3.13b - CCE 66.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.11 (Ebit TTM 52.3m / Interest Expense TTM 47.0m)
EV/FCF = 33.54x (Enterprise Value 4.00b / FCF TTM 119.2m)
FCF Yield = 2.98% (FCF TTM 119.2m / Enterprise Value 4.00b)
FCF Margin = 3.00% (FCF TTM 119.2m / Revenue TTM 3.98b)
Net Margin = 0.70% (Net Income TTM 27.7m / Revenue TTM 3.98b)
Gross Margin = 40.14% ((Revenue TTM 3.98b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.38b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 13.97% (prev 11.04%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.28 (Enterprise Value 4.00b / Total Assets 3.12b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.50% (Interest Expense 47.0m / Debt 3.13b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 41.3m (EBIT 52.3m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.25 (Total Current Assets 209.6m / Total Current Liabilities 824.0m)
Debt / Equity = 7.25 (Debt 3.13b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 431.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 13.12 (Net Debt 3.07b / EBITDA 233.7m)
Debt / FCF = 25.72 (Net Debt 3.07b / FCF TTM 119.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 376.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.86% (Net Income 27.7m / Total Assets 3.12b)
RoE = 7.35% (Net Income TTM 27.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 376.3m)
RoCE = 4.49% (EBIT 52.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 376.3m + L.T.Debt 787.4m))
RoIC = 1.72% (NOPAT 41.3m / Invested Capital 2.40b)
WACC = 3.77% (E(931.5m)/V(4.06b) * Re(12.44%) + D(3.13b)/V(4.06b) * Rd(1.50%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 12.44% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -49.19 | Cagr: -0.41%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈89.9m ; Y1≈103.1m ; Y5≈151.7m
 [DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 2.28b - Net Debt 3.07b = -783.1m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
 EPS Correlation: -94.02 | EPS CAGR: -31.76% | SUE: 1.33 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: -75.80 | Revenue CAGR: -7.47% | SUE: 0.08 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.19 | Chg30d=-0.47% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.87 | Chg30d=-1.38% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=-23.9% | GrowthRev=+0.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.95 | Chg30d=-2.34% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+9.7% | GrowthRev=+1.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -75% (up=0, down=9)