BLMN Stock Analysis: Bloomin Brands | NASDAQ

Restaurants | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 768m USD | 12M Return: -5.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Casual Dining, Fine Dining, Italian Cuisine, Steakhouse
Total Rating 42
Safety 37
Buy Signal 0.51
Restaurants
Industry Rotation: +12.9
Market Cap: 768M
Avg Turnover: 17.8M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility58.8%
VaR 5th Pctl9.68%
VaR vs Median-0.19%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.43
Rel. Str. IBD82.2
Rel. Str. Peer Group84.3
Character TTM
Beta1.427
Beta Downside1.181
Hurst Exponent0.431
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD80.50%
CAGR/Max DD-0.33
CAGR/Mean DD-0.57
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of BLMN over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.81, "2021-09": 0.57, "2021-12": 0.6, "2022-03": 0.8, "2022-06": 0.68, "2022-09": 0.35, "2022-12": 0.68, "2023-03": 0.98, "2023-06": 0.7, "2023-09": 0.44, "2023-12": 0.75, "2024-03": 0.7, "2024-06": 0.51, "2024-09": 0.21, "2024-12": 0.22, "2025-03": 0.58, "2025-06": 0.33, "2025-09": -0.03, "2025-12": 0.26, "2026-03": 0.67,
EPS CAGR: -32.81%
EPS Trend: -95.7%
Last SUE: 1.34
Qual. Beats: 1
Revenue Revenue of BLMN over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 1077.366, 2021-09: 1010.463, 2021-12: 1047.083, 2022-03: 1140.535, 2022-06: 1125.162, 2022-09: 1055.763, 2022-12: 1095.048, 2023-03: 1244.746, 2023-06: 1152.694, 2023-09: 1079.833, 2023-12: 1194.197, 2024-03: 1069.073, 2024-06: 1118.866, 2024-09: 1038.771, 2024-12: 597.511, 2025-03: 1049.594, 2025-06: 1002.366, 2025-09: 928.813, 2025-12: 975.223, 2026-03: 1059.673,
Rev. CAGR: -8.42%
Rev. Trend: -82.4%
Last SUE: 0.11
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

High Debt/EBITDA With Thin Interest Coverage
Interest Coverage Ratio Critical
Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Tailwinds

Idiosyncratic Leader
Tailwind
Pullback 52w

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan +1.1% 36
Feb +3.9% 40
Mar -0.3% 0
Apr +7.4% 16
May -1.6% 35
Jun -0.9% 13
Jul +0.9% 0
Aug -0.4% 0
Sep +0.3% 0
Oct +0.3% 0
Nov +2.0% 0
Dec -5.0% 31

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: under 40 is mostly noise, over 50 gets interesting, and over 70 is strong.

Description: BLMN Bloomin Brands

Bloomin Brands (NASDAQ: BLMN) is a Tampa, Florida-based restaurant company founded in 1988 that owns and operates a portfolio of four dining concepts in the United States and internationally. Its brands include Outback Steakhouse, Carrabbas Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill, and Flemings Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, spanning casual, polished-casual, and fine dining formats.

The company operates through U.S. and International Franchise segments, combining company-owned locations with a franchised distribution model that extends its brands into foreign markets. Bloomin Brands is classified in the GICS Restaurants sub-industry within Consumer Discretionary, a sector whose performance is closely tied to discretionary consumer spending, and trades as a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of roughly $710 million after its August 2012 IPO.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Outback Steakhouse same-store sales drive consolidated revenue growth
  • Beef and commodity cost inflation pressures restaurant-level margins
  • Brazil international segment currency translation and demand volatility
  • Debt reduction and share repurchase program execution returns capital
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 5.0
Net Income: 21.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.43 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -15.25% < 20% (prev -12.08%; Δ -3.17% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 278.5m > Net Income 21.7m
Net Debt (3.13b) to EBITDA (221.9m): 14.12 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.24 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (85.8m) vs 12m ago 0.73% < -2%
Gross Margin: 54.45% > 18% (prev 13.36%; Δ 41.08% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 123.6% > 50% (prev 115.1%; Δ 8.45% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.90 > 6 (EBIT TTM 41.9m / Interest Expense TTM 46.6m)
Altman Z'' -1.94
A: -0.19 (Total Current Assets 195.2m - Total Current Liabilities 799.9m) / Total Assets 3.11b
B: -0.28 (Retained Earnings -861.9m / Total Assets 3.11b)
C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 41.9m / Avg Total Assets 3.21b)
D: 0.15 (Book Value of Equity 395.5m / Total Liabilities 2.72b)
Altman-Z'' = -1.94 = D
Beneish M -4.00
DSRI: 0.23 (Receivables 36.8m/154.3m, Revenue 3.97b/3.80b)
GMI: 0.25 (GM 13.36% / 54.45%)
AQI: 1.10 (AQ_t 0.33 / AQ_t-1 0.30)
SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 3.97b / 3.80b)
TATA: -0.08 (NI 21.7m - CFO 278.5m) / TA 3.11b)
Beneish M = -4.26 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA
What is the price of BLMN shares?

As of July 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 9.14 with a total of 2,219,088 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.21%, over one month by +9.46%, over three months by +62.59% and over the past year by -5.90%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 8.00 (which is 12.5% or 2.3 ATR below the current price).

Is BLMN a buy, sell or hold?

Bloomin Brands has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold BLMN.

  • StrongBuy: 1
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 10
  • Sell: 2
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the BLMN price?
Analysts Target Price 8.6 -5.5%
Bloomin Brands (BLMN) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 28 June 2026
Market Cap USD = 768.0m (768.0m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 37.375
P/E Forward = 6.2461
P/S = 0.1936
P/B = 1.8723
P/EG = 1.07
Revenue TTM = 3.97b USD
EBIT TTM = 41.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 221.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 752.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 180.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.20b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.22b
Net Debt = 3.13b USD (calculated: Debt 3.20b - CCE 71.3m)
Enterprise Value = 3.90b USD (768.0m + Debt 3.20b - CCE 71.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.90 (Ebit TTM 41.9m / Interest Expense TTM 46.6m)
EV/FCF = 32.72x (Enterprise Value 3.90b / FCF TTM 119.2m)
FCF Yield = 3.06% (FCF TTM 119.2m / Enterprise Value 3.90b)
FCF Margin = 3.01% (FCF TTM 119.2m / Revenue TTM 3.97b)
Net Margin = 0.55% (Net Income TTM 21.7m / Revenue TTM 3.97b)
Gross Margin = 54.45% ((Revenue TTM 3.97b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.81b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.04% (prev 70.20%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.25 (Enterprise Value 3.90b / Total Assets 3.11b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.45% (Interest Expense 46.6m / Debt 3.20b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 33.1m (EBIT 41.9m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.24 (Total Current Assets 195.2m / Total Current Liabilities 799.9m)
Debt / Equity = 8.10 (Debt 3.20b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 395.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 14.12 (Net Debt 3.13b / EBITDA 221.9m)
Debt / FCF = 26.28 (Net Debt 3.13b / FCF TTM 119.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 367.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.68% (Net Income 21.7m / Total Assets 3.11b)
RoE = 5.91% (Net Income TTM 21.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 367.6m)
RoCE = 3.74% (EBIT 41.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 367.6m + L.T.Debt 752.6m))
RoIC = 1.36% (NOPAT 33.1m / Invested Capital 2.42b)
WACC = 3.05% (E(768.0m)/V(3.97b) * Re(11.0%) + D(3.20b)/V(3.97b) * Rd(1.45%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.0% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -51.13 | Cagr: -4.77%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈89.9m ; Y1≈103.1m ; Y5≈151.7m
 [DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 2.28b - Net Debt 3.13b = -849.0m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
 EPS Correlation: -95.66 | EPS CAGR: -32.81% | SUE: 1.34 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -82.37 | Revenue CAGR: -8.42% | SUE: 0.11 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.19 | Chg30d=-61.97% | Revisions=-75% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.88 | Chg30d=+2.83% | Revisions=+43% | GrowthEPS=-22.8% | GrowthRev=+0.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.97 | Chg30d=+0.55% | Revisions=+12% | GrowthEPS=+10.7% | GrowthRev=+1.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -75%