(BLMN) Bloomin Brands - Ratings and Ratios
Casual, Polished Casual, Fine Dining, Steakhouse, Italian
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 65.8% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 99.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.53% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.47 |
| Alpha | -62.52 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.402 |
| Beta | 1.447 |
| Beta Downside | 1.362 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 78.05% |
| Mean DD | 33.61% |
| Median DD | 27.78% |
Description: BLMN Bloomin Brands October 22, 2025
Bloomin’ Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ:BLMN) operates a portfolio of four restaurant concepts-Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba’s Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill, and Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar-through both U.S. and International Franchise segments. Founded in 1988 and headquartered in Tampa, Florida, the company runs casual to fine-dining venues across the United States and select overseas markets.
Recent performance highlights include FY 2023 comparable-store sales declining roughly 2% year-over-year, while franchise revenue now represents about 45% of total revenue, reflecting a strategic shift toward higher-margin franchising. The sector remains sensitive to consumer discretionary spending and input-cost inflation, with labor and food cost pressures compressing operating margins across the casual dining industry.
For a deeper, data-driven view of Bloomin’ Brands’ valuation dynamics, you might find the analytical tools on ValueRay useful for extending this initial assessment.
BLMN Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 539m |
| Sub-Industry | Restaurants |
| IPO / Inception | 2012-08-08 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -52.4% |
| Analyst Rating | 3.0 of 5 |
BLMN Dividends
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.87% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 4.70% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 48.02% |
| Payout Consistency | 77.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 63.3% |
BLMN Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | -31.40% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | -0.40 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | -0.93 |
| Current Volume | 2652.4k |
| Average Volume | 2352.8k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income (-57.7m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 214.7m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.04 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 4.82pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -12.14% (prev -13.30%; Δ 1.16pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 277.3m > Net Income -57.7m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (2.14b) to EBITDA (214.7m) ratio: 9.98 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.44 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (85.1m) change vs 12m ago -1.24% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 44.75% (prev 14.90%; Δ 29.85pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 106.6% (prev 128.8%; Δ -22.16pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 1.07 (EBITDA TTM 214.7m / Interest Expense TTM 51.2m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -1.98
| (A) -0.13 = (Total Current Assets 340.0m - Total Current Liabilities 774.4m) / Total Assets 3.28b |
| (B) -0.28 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -904.1m / Total Assets 3.28b |
| (C) 0.02 = EBIT TTM 54.6m / Avg Total Assets 3.36b |
| (D) -0.31 = Book Value of Equity -895.6m / Total Liabilities 2.93b |
| Total Rating: -1.98 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 38.95
| 1. Piotroski 3.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 4.88% |
| 3. FCF Margin 3.65% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 6.42 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 9.98 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 1.89)% |
| 7. RoE -18.37% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -51.68% |
| 9. EPS Trend -77.83% |
What is the price of BLMN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.20%, over one month by -17.53%, over three months by -8.76% and over the past year by -46.56%.
Is BLMN a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 2
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the BLMN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 7.5 | 17.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 7.5 | 17.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 6.2 | -2.8% |
BLMN Fundamental Data Overview November 20, 2025
P/E Trailing = 18.0571
P/E Forward = 7.4184
P/S = 0.1363
P/B = 1.6494
P/EG = 1.07
Beta = 1.136
Revenue TTM = 3.58b USD
EBIT TTM = 54.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 214.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 962.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 179.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.21b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.14b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.68b USD (538.6m + Debt 2.21b - CCE 66.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.07 (Ebit TTM 54.6m / Interest Expense TTM 51.2m)
FCF Yield = 4.88% (FCF TTM 130.8m / Enterprise Value 2.68b)
FCF Margin = 3.65% (FCF TTM 130.8m / Revenue TTM 3.58b)
Net Margin = -1.61% (Net Income TTM -57.7m / Revenue TTM 3.58b)
Gross Margin = 44.75% ((Revenue TTM 3.58b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.98b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 70.38% (prev 70.24%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.82 (Enterprise Value 2.68b / Total Assets 3.28b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.50% (Interest Expense 11.1m / Debt 2.21b)
Taxrate = -5.63% (negative due to tax credits) (2.40m / -42.7m)
NOPAT = 57.7m (EBIT 54.6m * (1 - -5.63%)) [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 0.44 (Total Current Assets 340.0m / Total Current Liabilities 774.4m)
Debt / Equity = 6.42 (Debt 2.21b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 344.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 9.98 (Net Debt 2.14b / EBITDA 214.7m)
Debt / FCF = 16.39 (Net Debt 2.14b / FCF TTM 130.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 314.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.76% (Net Income -57.7m / Total Assets 3.28b)
RoE = -18.37% (Net Income TTM -57.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 314.4m)
RoCE = 4.28% (EBIT 54.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 314.4m + L.T.Debt 962.2m))
RoIC = 4.54% (NOPAT 57.7m / Invested Capital 1.27b)
WACC = 2.65% (E(538.6m)/V(2.75b) * Re(11.35%) + D(2.21b)/V(2.75b) * Rd(0.50%) * (1-Tc(-0.06)))
Discount Rate = 11.35% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -5.96%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 57.16% ; FCFE base≈130.8m ; Y1≈85.9m ; Y5≈39.3m
Fair Price DCF = 5.81 (DCF Value 495.0m / Shares Outstanding 85.2m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -77.83 | EPS CAGR: -61.72% | SUE: 1.32 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -51.68 | Revenue CAGR: -5.81% | SUE: 0.10 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for BLMN Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle