(BMBL) Bumble - Overview
Stock: Dating App, Friendship App, Social Networking, Subscription, In-App Purchases
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 61.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.58% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.92 |
| Alpha | -82.19 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.455 |
| Beta Downside | 1.181 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 87.68% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.56 |
Description: BMBL Bumble January 21, 2026
Bumble Inc. (NASDAQ:BMBL) operates a portfolio of dating and social networking apps-including Bumble, Badoo, Bumble BFF, Bumble Bizz, Bumble for Friends, and the Geneva community platform-targeting users in North America, Europe, and other international markets. The core monetization model combines subscription tiers (e.g., Bumble Boost, Bumble Premium) with in-app purchases and advertising revenue.
Key performance indicators from the most recent fiscal year show $1.86 billion in total revenue, a 23 % year-over-year increase driven primarily by a 31 % rise in paid subscriptions. Monthly active users (MAU) reached 45 million, with an average revenue per user (ARPU) of $41, reflecting strong monetization of the “women-first” engagement model.
The online dating sector remains sensitive to discretionary consumer spending and macro-economic confidence, while competition from TikTok-driven social discovery and niche dating apps pressures user acquisition costs. Advertising spend trends and the rollout of AI-enhanced matching algorithms are emerging levers for future growth.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, consult ValueRay’s detailed valuation model to explore how these drivers translate into forward-looking price targets.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: -198.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.81 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 31.32% < 20% (prev 18.49%; Δ 12.83% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 185.7m > Net Income -198.8m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 3.55 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (105.2m) vs 12m ago -12.43% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 70.61% > 18% (prev 0.70%; Δ 6990 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 41.95% > 50% (prev 41.85%; Δ 0.10% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -4.71 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -173.3m / Interest Expense TTM 45.1m) |
Altman Z'' -1.70
| A: 0.14 (Total Current Assets 437.3m - Total Current Liabilities 123.2m) / Total Assets 2.19b |
| B: -0.41 (Retained Earnings -904.1m / Total Assets 2.19b) |
| C: -0.09 (EBIT TTM -212.3m / Avg Total Assets 2.39b) |
| D: -0.66 (Book Value of Equity -765.6m / Total Liabilities 1.16b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -1.70 = D |
Beneish M -3.32
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 92.5m/102.5m, Revenue 1.00b/1.08b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 70.61% / 70.35%) |
| AQI: 0.94 (AQ_t 0.79 / AQ_t-1 0.84) |
| SGI: 0.93 (Revenue 1.00b / 1.08b) |
| TATA: -0.18 (NI -198.8m - CFO 185.7m) / TA 2.19b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.32 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of BMBL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.59%, over one month by -8.52%, over three months by -21.65% and over the past year by -62.34%.
Is BMBL a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 13
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the BMBL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 4.6 | 41.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 4.6 | 41.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 1.8 | -43.2% |
BMBL Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 0.5308
P/B = 0.5591
Revenue TTM = 1.00b USD
EBIT TTM = -212.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = -173.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 583.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 9.14m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 600.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 292.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 824.7m USD (532.5m + Debt 600.1m - CCE 307.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -4.71 (Ebit TTM -212.3m / Interest Expense TTM 45.1m)
EV/FCF = 4.75x (Enterprise Value 824.7m / FCF TTM 173.6m)
FCF Yield = 21.05% (FCF TTM 173.6m / Enterprise Value 824.7m)
FCF Margin = 17.31% (FCF TTM 173.6m / Revenue TTM 1.00b)
Net Margin = -19.82% (Net Income TTM -198.8m / Revenue TTM 1.00b)
Gross Margin = 70.61% ((Revenue TTM 1.00b - Cost of Revenue TTM 294.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 71.88% (prev 70.05%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.38 (Enterprise Value 824.7m / Total Assets 2.19b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.77% (Interest Expense 10.6m / Debt 600.1m)
Taxrate = 15.54% (9.50m / 61.1m)
NOPAT = -179.3m (EBIT -212.3m * (1 - 15.54%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.55 (Total Current Assets 437.3m / Total Current Liabilities 123.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.89 (Debt 600.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 675.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.69 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 292.2m / EBITDA -173.3m)
Debt / FCF = 1.68 (Net Debt 292.2m / FCF TTM 173.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 723.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -8.31% (Net Income -198.8m / Total Assets 2.19b)
RoE = -27.49% (Net Income TTM -198.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 723.0m)
RoCE = -16.24% (EBIT -212.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 723.0m + L.T.Debt 583.6m))
RoIC = -13.45% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -179.3m / Invested Capital 1.33b)
WACC = 6.10% (E(532.5m)/V(1.13b) * Re(11.28%) + D(600.1m)/V(1.13b) * Rd(1.77%) * (1-Tc(0.16)))
Discount Rate = 11.28% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -10.29%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 86.36% ; FCFF base≈177.7m ; Y1≈193.4m ; Y5≈242.3m
Fair Price DCF = 56.99 (EV 6.72b - Net Debt 292.2m = Equity 6.43b / Shares 112.7m; r=6.10% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 10.01% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 1.51 | EPS CAGR: 23.88% | SUE: -0.04 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 65.23 | Revenue CAGR: 4.56% | SUE: 0.60 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.19 | Chg30d=-0.013 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.93 | Chg30d=-0.660 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-60.4% | Growth Revenue=-11.6%