(CAKE) The Cheesecake Factory - Overview
Exchange: NASDAQ •
Country: United States •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US1630721017
Stock: Cheesecakes, Restaurants, Bakery Products, Licensed Brands
Total Rating 44
Risk 85
Buy Signal 0.67
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.06% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.46% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 10.06% |
| Payout Consistency | 81.4% |
| Payout Ratio | 39.0% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 34.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -5.70% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.48 |
| Alpha | 1.01 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.950 |
| Beta Downside | 1.006 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 36.39% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.61 |
Description: CAKE The Cheesecake Factory January 11, 2026
The Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE) runs a portfolio of full-service dining concepts-including The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, Flower Child, and Fox Restaurant Concepts-in the United States and Canada, and it supplies its signature cheesecakes and baked goods to its own locations, licensed operators, third-party bakeries, food-service partners, and retail distributors. The company was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Calabasas, California.
Recent performance highlights include FY 2023 revenue of roughly $3.5 billion, a comparable-store sales increase of about 5 percent year-over-year, and an average check size that has risen to $38, reflecting strong menu-mix dynamics. Key economic drivers for the business are consumer discretionary spending trends, labor-cost inflation, and commodity price pressures on food inputs; the broader restaurant sector remains sensitive to changes in disposable income and confidence indices.
For a deeper, data-driven look at CAKE’s valuation and risk profile, consider exploring the analytics available on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 160.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.58 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -9.36% < 20% (prev -10.33%; Δ 0.96% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 320.4m > Net Income 160.8m |
| Net Debt (1.95b) to EBITDA (291.2m): 6.69 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.55 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (48.6m) vs 12m ago -0.67% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 69.64% > 18% (prev 0.39%; Δ 6925 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 120.2% > 50% (prev 120.5%; Δ -0.34% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 15.93 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 291.2m / Interest Expense TTM 11.6m) |
Altman Z'' 1.62
| A: -0.11 (Total Current Assets 423.9m - Total Current Liabilities 771.4m) / Total Assets 3.24b |
| B: 0.43 (Retained Earnings 1.40b / Total Assets 3.24b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 184.5m / Avg Total Assets 3.09b) |
| D: 0.50 (Book Value of Equity 1.40b / Total Liabilities 2.82b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.62 = BB |
Beneish M -3.12
| DSRI: 1.43 (Receivables 111.3m/74.3m, Revenue 3.71b/3.54b) |
| GMI: 0.56 (GM 69.64% / 38.98%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.16) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 3.71b / 3.54b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 160.8m - CFO 320.4m) / TA 3.24b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.12 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of CAKE shares?
As of February 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 63.25 with a total of 1,226,288 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +9.13%, over one month by +11.89%, over three months by +35.52% and over the past year by +16.18%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +9.13%, over one month by +11.89%, over three months by +35.52% and over the past year by +16.18%.
Is CAKE a buy, sell or hold?
The Cheesecake Factory has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.53.
Therefor, it is recommend to hold CAKE.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 2
What are the forecasts/targets for the CAKE price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 60.2 | -4.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 60.2 | -4.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 68.7 | 8.5% |
CAKE Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Trailing = 17.617
P/E Forward = 14.3885
P/S = 0.7784
P/B = 6.7928
P/EG = 1.1987
Revenue TTM = 3.71b USD
EBIT TTM = 184.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 291.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 560.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 234.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.14b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.95b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.84b USD (2.89b + Debt 2.14b - CCE 190.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 15.93 (Ebit TTM 184.5m / Interest Expense TTM 11.6m)
EV/FCF = 30.45x (Enterprise Value 4.84b / FCF TTM 158.9m)
FCF Yield = 3.28% (FCF TTM 158.9m / Enterprise Value 4.84b)
FCF Margin = 4.28% (FCF TTM 158.9m / Revenue TTM 3.71b)
Net Margin = 4.33% (Net Income TTM 160.8m / Revenue TTM 3.71b)
Gross Margin = 69.64% ((Revenue TTM 3.71b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.13b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 78.21% (prev 78.46%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.49 (Enterprise Value 4.84b / Total Assets 3.24b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.11% (Interest Expense 2.25m / Debt 2.14b)
Taxrate = 10.10% (3.58m / 35.5m)
NOPAT = 165.8m (EBIT 184.5m * (1 - 10.10%))
Current Ratio = 0.55 (Total Current Assets 423.9m / Total Current Liabilities 771.4m)
Debt / Equity = 5.03 (Debt 2.14b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 425.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.69 (Net Debt 1.95b / EBITDA 291.2m)
Debt / FCF = 12.27 (Net Debt 1.95b / FCF TTM 158.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 402.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.21% (Net Income 160.8m / Total Assets 3.24b)
RoE = 39.97% (Net Income TTM 160.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 402.3m)
RoCE = 19.16% (EBIT 184.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 402.3m + L.T.Debt 560.4m))
RoIC = 16.51% (NOPAT 165.8m / Invested Capital 1.00b)
WACC = 5.45% (E(2.89b)/V(5.03b) * Re(9.41%) + D(2.14b)/V(5.03b) * Rd(0.11%) * (1-Tc(0.10)))
Discount Rate = 9.41% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.01%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 86.81% ; FCFF base≈122.6m ; Y1≈128.8m ; Y5≈150.4m
Fair Price DCF = 50.43 (EV 4.46b - Net Debt 1.95b = Equity 2.51b / Shares 49.8m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 5.46% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 27.35 | EPS CAGR: -37.91% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 85.50 | Revenue CAGR: 4.23% | SUE: -0.79 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.02 | Chg30d=+0.007 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=19
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.02 | Chg30d=+0.019 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+7.2% | Growth Revenue=+4.7%
P/E Forward = 14.3885
P/S = 0.7784
P/B = 6.7928
P/EG = 1.1987
Revenue TTM = 3.71b USD
EBIT TTM = 184.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 291.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 560.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 234.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.14b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.95b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.84b USD (2.89b + Debt 2.14b - CCE 190.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 15.93 (Ebit TTM 184.5m / Interest Expense TTM 11.6m)
EV/FCF = 30.45x (Enterprise Value 4.84b / FCF TTM 158.9m)
FCF Yield = 3.28% (FCF TTM 158.9m / Enterprise Value 4.84b)
FCF Margin = 4.28% (FCF TTM 158.9m / Revenue TTM 3.71b)
Net Margin = 4.33% (Net Income TTM 160.8m / Revenue TTM 3.71b)
Gross Margin = 69.64% ((Revenue TTM 3.71b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.13b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 78.21% (prev 78.46%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.49 (Enterprise Value 4.84b / Total Assets 3.24b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.11% (Interest Expense 2.25m / Debt 2.14b)
Taxrate = 10.10% (3.58m / 35.5m)
NOPAT = 165.8m (EBIT 184.5m * (1 - 10.10%))
Current Ratio = 0.55 (Total Current Assets 423.9m / Total Current Liabilities 771.4m)
Debt / Equity = 5.03 (Debt 2.14b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 425.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.69 (Net Debt 1.95b / EBITDA 291.2m)
Debt / FCF = 12.27 (Net Debt 1.95b / FCF TTM 158.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 402.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.21% (Net Income 160.8m / Total Assets 3.24b)
RoE = 39.97% (Net Income TTM 160.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 402.3m)
RoCE = 19.16% (EBIT 184.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 402.3m + L.T.Debt 560.4m))
RoIC = 16.51% (NOPAT 165.8m / Invested Capital 1.00b)
WACC = 5.45% (E(2.89b)/V(5.03b) * Re(9.41%) + D(2.14b)/V(5.03b) * Rd(0.11%) * (1-Tc(0.10)))
Discount Rate = 9.41% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.01%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 86.81% ; FCFF base≈122.6m ; Y1≈128.8m ; Y5≈150.4m
Fair Price DCF = 50.43 (EV 4.46b - Net Debt 1.95b = Equity 2.51b / Shares 49.8m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 5.46% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 27.35 | EPS CAGR: -37.91% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 85.50 | Revenue CAGR: 4.23% | SUE: -0.79 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.02 | Chg30d=+0.007 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=19
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.02 | Chg30d=+0.019 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+7.2% | Growth Revenue=+4.7%