(CSTL) Castle Biosciences - Overview
Stock: Melanoma, Squamous, Esophagus, Uveal, Depression
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 59.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.8% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.49 |
| Alpha | 4.77 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.658 |
| Beta Downside | 0.674 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 57.74% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.13 |
Description: CSTL Castle Biosciences December 26, 2025
Castle Biosciences (NASDAQ:CSTL) is a molecular diagnostics firm that commercializes gene-expression and spatial-omics tests for high-risk dermatologic cancers, Barrett’s esophagus, uveal melanoma, and several psychiatric disorders. Its flagship assays include DecisionDx-Melanoma and DecisionDx-UM for metastasis risk stratification, DecisionDx-SCC for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma, MyPath Melanoma for ambiguous melanocytic lesions, TissueCypher for progression risk in Barrett’s esophagus, and IDgenetix for pharmacogenomic guidance in major mental-health conditions.
As of the latest 10-Q (Q4 2023), Castle reported approximately $15 million in total revenue, a 22 % year-over-year increase driven primarily by growth in its dermatology portfolio, and held roughly $70 million in cash and short-term investments, providing runway into 2026 at its current burn rate. The U.S. dermatologic-cancer diagnostics market is projected to expand at a CAGR of ~8 % through 2028, while reimbursement trends for GEP tests are tightening, making payer acceptance a critical economic driver. Recent FDA clearance of DecisionDx-UM (April 2024) and ongoing Phase III validation of TissueCypher could unlock additional revenue streams, but competitive pressure from larger players like Guardant Health and Roche’s companion diagnostics remains a material risk.
For a deeper, data-driven look at Castle’s valuation dynamics and how they compare to sector peers, you may find ValueRay’s analytical platform worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: -12.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.20 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 87.99% < 20% (prev 96.34%; Δ -8.36% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 61.8m > Net Income -12.2m |
| Net Debt (-48.4m) to EBITDA (25.8m): -1.88 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 6.47 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (29.1m) vs 12m ago -1.12% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 79.94% > 18% (prev 0.82%; Δ 7913 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 63.77% > 50% (prev 60.61%; Δ 3.16% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -122.0 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 25.8m / Interest Expense TTM 154.0k) |
Altman Z'' -0.43
| A: 0.54 (Total Current Assets 357.6m - Total Current Liabilities 55.3m) / Total Assets 562.8m |
| B: -0.39 (Retained Earnings -222.0m / Total Assets 562.8m) |
| C: -0.03 (EBIT TTM -18.8m / Avg Total Assets 538.7m) |
| D: -2.32 (Book Value of Equity -221.7m / Total Liabilities 95.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -0.43 = B |
Beneish M -3.24
| DSRI: 0.89 (Receivables 49.5m/50.3m, Revenue 343.5m/311.9m) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 79.94% / 81.90%) |
| AQI: 0.85 (AQ_t 0.19 / AQ_t-1 0.22) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 343.5m / 311.9m) |
| TATA: -0.13 (NI -12.2m - CFO 61.8m) / TA 562.8m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.24 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of CSTL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -16.86%, over one month by -18.27%, over three months by -2.38% and over the past year by +17.68%.
Is CSTL a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CSTL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 46.6 | 42.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 46.6 | 42.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 32.6 | -0.5% |
CSTL Fundamental Data Overview February 01, 2026
P/B = 2.453
Revenue TTM = 343.5m USD
EBIT TTM = -18.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 25.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 10.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.45m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 37.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -48.4m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 899.3m USD (1.15b + Debt 37.1m - CCE 287.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -122.0 (Ebit TTM -18.8m / Interest Expense TTM 154.0k)
EV/FCF = 35.44x (Enterprise Value 899.3m / FCF TTM 25.4m)
FCF Yield = 2.82% (FCF TTM 25.4m / Enterprise Value 899.3m)
FCF Margin = 7.39% (FCF TTM 25.4m / Revenue TTM 343.5m)
Net Margin = -3.56% (Net Income TTM -12.2m / Revenue TTM 343.5m)
Gross Margin = 79.94% ((Revenue TTM 343.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 68.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 77.48% (prev 79.55%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.60 (Enterprise Value 899.3m / Total Assets 562.8m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.06% (Interest Expense 24.0k / Debt 37.1m)
Taxrate = 15.39% (3.32m / 21.6m)
NOPAT = -15.9m (EBIT -18.8m * (1 - 15.39%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 6.47 (Total Current Assets 357.6m / Total Current Liabilities 55.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.08 (Debt 37.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 467.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.88 (Net Debt -48.4m / EBITDA 25.8m)
Debt / FCF = -1.91 (Net Debt -48.4m / FCF TTM 25.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 454.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.27% (Net Income -12.2m / Total Assets 562.8m)
RoE = -2.69% (Net Income TTM -12.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 454.6m)
RoCE = -4.04% (EBIT -18.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 454.6m + L.T.Debt 10.0m))
RoIC = -3.42% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -15.9m / Invested Capital 464.7m)
WACC = 8.08% (E(1.15b)/V(1.19b) * Re(8.34%) + D(37.1m)/V(1.19b) * Rd(0.06%) * (1-Tc(0.15)))
Discount Rate = 8.34% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 5.61%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 69.85% ; FCFF base≈29.0m ; Y1≈19.1m ; Y5≈8.70m
Fair Price DCF = 7.40 (EV 167.7m - Net Debt -48.4m = Equity 216.1m / Shares 29.2m; r=8.08% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 58.14 | EPS CAGR: 68.78% | SUE: 0.74 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.06 | Revenue CAGR: 37.67% | SUE: 1.95 | # QB: 3
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.37 | Chg30d=+0.057 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.15 | Chg30d=+0.271 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-40.6% | Growth Revenue=-2.5%