(CTRN) Citi Trends - Overview
Stock: Apparel, Accessories, Home, Beauty, Seasonal
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 51.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.8% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.23 |
| Alpha | 69.75 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.285 |
| Beta Downside | 1.155 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 56.96% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.23 |
Description: CTRN Citi Trends December 30, 2025
Citi Trends, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTRN) is a value-oriented retailer that sells fashion apparel, accessories, beauty items, and home-goods primarily to African-American and multicultural families across the United States. Its merchandise mix spans men’s, women’s, and children’s clothing-including sportswear, footwear, sleepwear, and uniforms-plus a broad assortment of accessories, cosmetics, household items, and seasonal products.
As of the most recent filing (Q2 2024), CTRN reported comparable-store sales growth of roughly 2.5% year-over-year, driven by a 4% increase in average transaction size and a modest 1.2% rise in foot traffic, reflecting the company’s focus on low-price, high-turn inventory. The retailer’s performance is sensitive to discretionary-spending trends and employment levels in its core demographic, which historically lags the broader consumer index by 3–5 percentage points. Additionally, the broader value-apparel segment is benefiting from inflation-adjusted pricing power, as consumers gravitate toward affordable alternatives when real wages stagnate.
For a deeper, data-rich view of CTRN’s valuation dynamics, you might explore the analytics platform ValueRay to see how these drivers are modeled in real time.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: -16.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.85 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 1.53% < 20% (prev 3.11%; Δ -1.58% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 30.0m > Net Income -16.4m |
| Net Debt (166.9m) to EBITDA (17.8m): 9.37 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.07 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (8.05m) vs 12m ago -3.66% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 37.84% > 18% (prev 0.35%; Δ 3749 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 172.0% > 50% (prev 162.1%; Δ 9.86% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.64 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 17.8m / Interest Expense TTM 336.0k) |
Altman Z'' 2.90
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 192.1m - Total Current Liabilities 179.8m) / Total Assets 464.3m |
| B: 0.59 (Retained Earnings 273.7m / Total Assets 464.3m) |
| C: -0.00 (EBIT TTM -216.0k / Avg Total Assets 465.7m) |
| D: 0.77 (Book Value of Equity 273.9m / Total Liabilities 356.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 2.90 = A |
Beneish M -3.91
| DSRI: 0.72 (Receivables 3.12m/4.12m, Revenue 800.7m/757.1m) |
| GMI: 0.94 (GM 37.84% / 35.39%) |
| AQI: 0.11 (AQ_t 0.00 / AQ_t-1 0.03) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 800.7m / 757.1m) |
| TATA: -0.10 (NI -16.4m - CFO 30.0m) / TA 464.3m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.91 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of CTRN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.94%, over one month by -2.77%, over three months by +14.53% and over the past year by +84.26%.
Is CTRN a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CTRN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 57 | 27.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 57 | 27.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 53.5 | 19.3% |
CTRN Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/S = 0.4497
P/B = 3.3395
P/EG = 1.08
Revenue TTM = 800.7m USD
EBIT TTM = -216.0k USD
EBITDA TTM = 17.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 218.0m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 43.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 218.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 166.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 527.0m USD (360.1m + Debt 218.0m - CCE 51.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.64 (Ebit TTM -216.0k / Interest Expense TTM 336.0k)
EV/FCF = 44.12x (Enterprise Value 527.0m / FCF TTM 11.9m)
FCF Yield = 2.27% (FCF TTM 11.9m / Enterprise Value 527.0m)
FCF Margin = 1.49% (FCF TTM 11.9m / Revenue TTM 800.7m)
Net Margin = -2.05% (Net Income TTM -16.4m / Revenue TTM 800.7m)
Gross Margin = 37.84% ((Revenue TTM 800.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 497.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 36.53% (prev 37.60%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.14 (Enterprise Value 527.0m / Total Assets 464.3m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.04% (Interest Expense 91.0k / Debt 218.0m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -170.6k (EBIT -216.0k * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.07 (Total Current Assets 192.1m / Total Current Liabilities 179.8m)
Debt / Equity = 2.02 (Debt 218.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 107.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 9.37 (Net Debt 166.9m / EBITDA 17.8m)
Debt / FCF = 13.98 (Net Debt 166.9m / FCF TTM 11.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 110.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.52% (Net Income -16.4m / Total Assets 464.3m)
RoE = -14.80% (Net Income TTM -16.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 110.7m)
RoCE = -0.07% (EBIT -216.0k / Capital Employed (Equity 110.7m + L.T.Debt 218.0m))
RoIC = -0.15% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -170.6k / Invested Capital 110.7m)
WACC = 6.65% (E(360.1m)/V(578.1m) * Re(10.65%) + D(218.0m)/V(578.1m) * Rd(0.04%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.65% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -1.15%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 76.83% ; FCFF base≈11.9m ; Y1≈7.84m ; Y5≈3.58m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 92.7m - Net Debt 166.9m = -74.2m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -40.41 | EPS CAGR: -4.96% | SUE: -0.60 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -24.19 | Revenue CAGR: -5.22% | SUE: 2.69 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-04-30): EPS=0.23 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2027-01-31): EPS=0.88 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+213.6% | Growth Revenue=+5.1%