(CVCO) Cavco Industries - Overview
Stock: Modular Homes, Park Models, Commercial Structures, Mortgages, Insurance
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 40.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.1% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.14 |
| Alpha | -12.48 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.806 |
| Beta Downside | 0.563 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 33.24% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.72 |
Description: CVCO Cavco Industries January 11, 2026
Cavco Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:CVCO) designs, manufactures and sells factory-built homes and related structures across the United States, operating through a Factory-Built Housing segment and a Financial Services segment. Its product line spans park-model RVs, vacation cabins, modular single-family homes, multi-family units, and specialty commercial projects such as workforce housing, schools and military accommodations. The Financial Services arm offers conforming and non-conforming mortgages, home-only loans, and property-casualty insurance to buyers of its own and partner-distributed homes.
Key recent metrics (Q4 2023) show revenue of roughly $1.1 billion, a net income of $140 million and an operating margin near 12 %, with a backlog of about $2.5 billion-indicating strong order flow despite a tightening credit environment. The segment’s performance is closely tied to macro drivers: the U.S. housing-starts index (up 3 % YoY in Q4 2023), persistent labor-shortages that favor modular construction’s speed advantage, and mortgage-rate volatility that can shift demand toward more affordable, factory-built options.
For a deeper, data-driven view of how Cavco’s valuation stacks up against peers and macro trends, you may find ValueRay’s analyst dashboards worth a look.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.5
| Net Income: 268.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.56 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 22.16% < 20% (prev 30.76%; Δ -8.60% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 210.4m > Net Income 268.5m |
| Net Debt (-190.6m) to EBITDA (239.1m): -0.80 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.49 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (7.98m) vs 12m ago -2.51% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 23.42% > 18% (prev 0.23%; Δ 2319 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 154.1% > 50% (prev 139.1%; Δ 15.08% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 211.7 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 239.1m / Interest Expense TTM 1.11m) |
Altman Z'' 9.95
| A: 0.33 (Total Current Assets 816.8m - Total Current Liabilities 328.7m) / Total Assets 1.47b |
| B: 0.91 (Retained Earnings 1.35b / Total Assets 1.47b) |
| C: 0.16 (EBIT TTM 234.2m / Avg Total Assets 1.43b) |
| D: 3.52 (Book Value of Equity 1.35b / Total Liabilities 383.0m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 9.95 = AAA |
Beneish M -2.68
| DSRI: 1.04 (Receivables 192.3m/161.3m, Revenue 2.20b/1.93b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 23.42% / 23.27%) |
| AQI: 1.30 (AQ_t 0.23 / AQ_t-1 0.18) |
| SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 2.20b / 1.93b) |
| TATA: 0.04 (NI 268.5m - CFO 210.4m) / TA 1.47b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.68 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of CVCO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +9.49%, over one month by -10.45%, over three months by -6.12% and over the past year by +0.28%.
Is CVCO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CVCO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 605 | 12.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 605 | 12.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 630.7 | 17.1% |
CVCO Fundamental Data Overview February 01, 2026
P/S = 1.7871
P/B = 3.5126
P/EG = 2.24
Revenue TTM = 2.20b USD
EBIT TTM = 234.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 239.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 31.5m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 6.25m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 34.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -190.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.62b USD (3.83b + Debt 34.1m - CCE 241.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 211.7 (Ebit TTM 234.2m / Interest Expense TTM 1.11m)
EV/FCF = 20.13x (Enterprise Value 3.62b / FCF TTM 180.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.97% (FCF TTM 180.0m / Enterprise Value 3.62b)
FCF Margin = 8.17% (FCF TTM 180.0m / Revenue TTM 2.20b)
Net Margin = 12.19% (Net Income TTM 268.5m / Revenue TTM 2.20b)
Gross Margin = 23.42% ((Revenue TTM 2.20b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.69b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 23.39% (prev 24.15%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.46 (Enterprise Value 3.62b / Total Assets 1.47b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.00% (Interest Expense 683.0k / Debt 34.1m)
Taxrate = 18.97% (40.0m / 211.1m)
NOPAT = 189.8m (EBIT 234.2m * (1 - 18.97%))
Current Ratio = 2.49 (Total Current Assets 816.8m / Total Current Liabilities 328.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.03 (Debt 34.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.09b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.80 (Net Debt -190.6m / EBITDA 239.1m)
Debt / FCF = -1.06 (Net Debt -190.6m / FCF TTM 180.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.08b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 18.79% (Net Income 268.5m / Total Assets 1.47b)
RoE = 24.95% (Net Income TTM 268.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.08b)
RoCE = 21.14% (EBIT 234.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.08b + L.T.Debt 31.5m))
RoIC = 17.70% (NOPAT 189.8m / Invested Capital 1.07b)
WACC = 8.82% (E(3.83b)/V(3.87b) * Re(8.88%) + D(34.1m)/V(3.87b) * Rd(2.00%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 8.88% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -81.65 | Cagr: -5.72%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 74.18% ; FCFF base≈167.1m ; Y1≈157.6m ; Y5≈148.5m
Fair Price DCF = 317.6 (EV 2.28b - Net Debt -190.6m = Equity 2.47b / Shares 7.79m; r=8.82% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -7.30% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -13.25 | EPS CAGR: -1.03% | SUE: -0.59 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 15.11 | Revenue CAGR: 3.78% | SUE: -0.58 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=6.89 | Chg30d=-0.035 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2027-03-31): EPS=29.00 | Chg30d=+0.790 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+18.4% | Growth Revenue=+9.2%