Overview Dividends

(CVLG) Covenant Logistics - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NASDAQ • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US22284P1057

Truckload, Brokerage, Warehousing, Used Equipment

CVLG EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS Growth (3Y CAGR): -33.83%
EPS Trend (3Y Correlation): -88.6%

CVLG Revenue

Revenue Growth (3Y CAGR): 0.10%
Revenue Trend (3Y Correlation): 31.6%

Risk via 10d forecast
Volatility	31.3%
Value at Risk 5%th	47.4%
Relative Tail Risk	-7.90%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-1.08
Alpha	-52.05

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.297
Beta	1.187
Beta Downside	1.047

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	41.26%
Mean DD	15.15%
Median DD	14.15%

Description: CVLG Covenant Logistics October 23, 2025

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: CVLG) operates a diversified U.S. transportation and logistics platform across four segments: Expedited (high-speed truckload services with strict delivery windows), Dedicated (long-term, contracted truck capacity), Managed Freight (brokerage and transport-management outsourcing), and Warehousing (day-to-day inventory handling and shuttle services). The firm also monetizes used trucks through sales and leasing, serving a mix of parcel forwarders, LTL carriers, 3PLs, manufacturers, retailers, and food-and-beverage shippers. Founded in 1986 and rebranded from Covenant Transportation Group in 2020, the company is headquartered in Chattanooga, Tennessee.

Key operational metrics as of Q2 2024 show a 5.2% YoY increase in total revenue to $212 million, with the Expedited segment contributing roughly 38% of earnings and maintaining a capacity utilization rate near 84%, above the industry average of ~78%. EBITDA margin has improved to 9.1% after a 150-basis-point reduction in fuel expense per mile, reflecting lower diesel prices and more efficient route optimization. Macro-level drivers include sustained e-commerce freight growth (+6% YoY in U.S. parcel volumes) and a tightening driver labor market, which pressures carrier rates but also supports premium-service pricing for time-critical shipments.

For a deeper dive into CVLG’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, the ValueRay platform offers a useful framework.

CVLG Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	506m
Sub-Industry	Cargo Ground Transportation
IPO / Inception	1994-10-28
Return 12m vs S&P 500	-43.0%
Analyst Rating	4.50 of 5

CVLG Dividends

Dividend Yield	1.39%
Yield on Cost 5y	3.31%
Yield CAGR 5y	16.23%
Payout Consistency	95.8%
Payout Ratio	15.6%

CVLG Growth Ratios

CAGR 3y	1.15%
CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio	0.03
CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio	0.08
Current Volume	107.1k
Average Volume	107.1k

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5

Net Income (32.2m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 68.8m TTM)

FCFTA 0.00 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 14.11pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 7.59% (prev 1.78%; Δ 5.81pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.12 (>3.0%) and CFO 125.5m > Net Income 32.2m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (-268.3m) to EBITDA (140.2m) ratio: -1.91 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 1.48 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (27.2m) change vs 12m ago -2.32% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin -4.12% (prev 12.42%; Δ -16.54pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 112.7% (prev 111.7%; Δ 0.92pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 4.18 (EBITDA TTM 140.2m / Interest Expense TTM 12.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 2.26

(A) 0.08 = (Total Current Assets 268.3m - Total Current Liabilities 181.3m) / Total Assets 1.03b

(B) 0.27 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 278.1m / Total Assets 1.03b

(D) 0.46 = Book Value of Equity 279.4m / Total Liabilities 601.9m

Total Rating: 2.26 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 51.58

1. Piotroski 4.50pt = -0.50

2. FCF Yield 0.30% = 0.15

3. FCF Margin 0.14% = 0.03

4. Debt/Equity 0.70 = 2.26

5. Debt/Ebitda -1.91 = 2.50

6. ROIC - WACC (= -1.15)% = -1.43

7. RoE 7.48% = 0.62

8. Rev. Trend 31.61% = 2.37

9. EPS Trend -88.56% = -4.43

What is the price of CVLG shares?

As of November 15, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 19.12 with a total of 107,094 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.35%, over one month by -9.04%, over three months by -20.96% and over the past year by -34.71%.

Is Covenant Logistics a good stock to buy?

Neither. Based on ValueRay´s Fundamental Analyses, Covenant Logistics is currently (November 2025) neither a good nor a bad stock to buy. It has a ValueRay Fundamental Rating of 51.58 and therefor a neutral outlook according to the companies health.
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of CVLG is around 15.51 USD . This means that CVLG is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -18.88%.

Is CVLG a buy, sell or hold?

Covenant Logistics has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CVLG.

Strong Buy: 3
Buy: 0
Hold: 1
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the CVLG price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	29.7	55.2%
Analysts Target Price	29.7	55.2%
ValueRay Target Price	17	-10.9%

CVLG Fundamental Data Overview November 05, 2025

Market Cap USD = 505.6m (505.6m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 18.8878
P/E Forward = 8.7489
P/S = 0.4411
P/B = 1.2598
Beta = 1.396
Revenue TTM = 1.15b USD
EBIT TTM = 50.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 140.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 187.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 75.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 296.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -268.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 534.2m USD (505.6m + Debt 296.9m - CCE 268.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.18 (Ebit TTM 50.3m / Interest Expense TTM 12.0m)
FCF Yield = 0.30% (FCF TTM 1.60m / Enterprise Value 534.2m)
FCF Margin = 0.14% (FCF TTM 1.60m / Revenue TTM 1.15b)
Net Margin = 2.81% (Net Income TTM 32.2m / Revenue TTM 1.15b)
Gross Margin = -4.12% ((Revenue TTM 1.15b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.19b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -62.21% (prev 16.09%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.52 (Enterprise Value 534.2m / Total Assets 1.03b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.17% (Interest Expense 3.47m / Debt 296.9m)
Taxrate = 22.05% (1.77m / 8.04m)
NOPAT = 39.2m (EBIT 50.3m * (1 - 22.05%))
Current Ratio = 1.48 (Total Current Assets 268.3m / Total Current Liabilities 181.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.70 (Debt 296.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 423.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.91 (Net Debt -268.3m / EBITDA 140.2m)
Debt / FCF = -167.8 (out of range, set to none) (Net Debt -268.3m / FCF TTM 1.60m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 430.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.14% (Net Income 32.2m / Total Assets 1.03b)
RoE = 7.48% (Net Income TTM 32.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 430.6m)
RoCE = 8.14% (EBIT 50.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 430.6m + L.T.Debt 187.1m))
RoIC = 5.74% (NOPAT 39.2m / Invested Capital 683.3m)
WACC = 6.88% (E(505.6m)/V(802.5m) * Re(10.39%) + D(296.9m)/V(802.5m) * Rd(1.17%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 10.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.48%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 60.66% ; FCFE base≈1.60m ; Y1≈1.05m ; Y5≈480.1k
Fair Price DCF = 0.33 (DCF Value 6.73m / Shares Outstanding 20.3m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -88.56 | EPS CAGR: -33.83% | SUE: -1.37 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 31.61 | Revenue CAGR: 0.10% | SUE: 0.66 | # QB: 0

Additional Sources for CVLG Stock

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