(ETSY) Etsy - Overview
Marketplace, Advertising, Payments, Shipping, Labels
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 47.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -5.16% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.23 |
| Alpha | -9.93 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.965 |
| Beta Downside | 1.240 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 72.47% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.36 |
Description: ETSY Etsy January 08, 2026
Etsy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ETSY) runs three two-sided marketplaces-Etsy (hand-made and vintage goods), Reverb (musical instruments), and Depop (fashion resale)-that match independent sellers with global buyers.
The company monetizes these platforms through listing fees, transaction commissions, off-site advertising, payment processing, and optional seller services such as on-site ads, shipping labels, and the Etsy Share & Save fee-reduction program.
Key recent metrics (FY 2023): revenue of approximately $2.6 billion, a 12 % year-over-year increase in gross merchandise volume (GMV), and an active-buyer base of roughly 90 million, with a take-rate (gross merchandise revenue ÷ GMV) of about 6.5 %.
Macro-level drivers include discretionary-spending trends tied to inflation and consumer confidence, as well as the broader e-commerce shift toward niche and peer-to-peer platforms, which historically grow faster than the overall retail sector.
Given the mix of organic growth in the artisan market and the potential for cross-selling between Etsy, Reverb, and Depop, the stock’s upside hinges on sustaining seller acquisition while managing take-rate pressure from competitive advertising options.
For a deeper quantitative dive, the ValueRay platform offers granular metrics and scenario analysis.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 182.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.25 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.31 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 43.05% < 20% (prev 27.43%; Δ 15.61% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.26 > 3% & CFO 691.2m > Net Income 182.2m |
| Net Debt (1.83b) to EBITDA (534.9m): 3.41 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.17 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (125.0m) vs 12m ago -4.43% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 72.04% > 18% (prev 0.71%; Δ 7133 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 112.0% > 50% (prev 114.6%; Δ -2.56% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 45.63 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 534.9m / Interest Expense TTM 9.46m) |
Altman Z'' 0.52
| A: 0.46 (Total Current Assets 1.79b - Total Current Liabilities 565.1m) / Total Assets 2.65b |
| B: -0.90 (Retained Earnings -2.38b / Total Assets 2.65b) |
| C: 0.17 (EBIT TTM 431.6m / Avg Total Assets 2.55b) |
| D: -0.69 (Book Value of Equity -2.61b / Total Liabilities 3.77b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.52 = B |
Beneish M -3.47
| DSRI: 0.95 (Receivables 175.6m/181.2m, Revenue 2.85b/2.80b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 72.04% / 70.96%) |
| AQI: 0.66 (AQ_t 0.24 / AQ_t-1 0.36) |
| SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 2.85b / 2.80b) |
| TATA: -0.19 (NI 182.2m - CFO 691.2m) / TA 2.65b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.47 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of ETSY shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.23%, over one month by +1.06%, over three months by -23.52% and over the past year by +2.51%.
Is ETSY a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 18
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 3
What are the forecasts/targets for the ETSY price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 67 | 17.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 67 | 17.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 46.6 | -18.4% |
ETSY Fundamental Data Overview January 27, 2026
P/E Forward = 21.9298
P/S = 2.0895
P/B = 21.4211
P/EG = 2.6228
Revenue TTM = 2.85b USD
EBIT TTM = 431.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 534.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.98b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.20m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.08b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.83b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 7.53b USD (5.96b + Debt 3.08b - CCE 1.51b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 45.63 (Ebit TTM 431.6m / Interest Expense TTM 9.46m)
EV/FCF = 11.47x (Enterprise Value 7.53b / FCF TTM 656.8m)
FCF Yield = 8.72% (FCF TTM 656.8m / Enterprise Value 7.53b)
FCF Margin = 23.01% (FCF TTM 656.8m / Revenue TTM 2.85b)
Net Margin = 6.38% (Net Income TTM 182.2m / Revenue TTM 2.85b)
Gross Margin = 72.04% ((Revenue TTM 2.85b - Cost of Revenue TTM 797.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 71.29% (prev 71.23%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.84 (Enterprise Value 7.53b / Total Assets 2.65b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.18% (Interest Expense 5.68m / Debt 3.08b)
Taxrate = 18.01% (16.6m / 92.1m)
NOPAT = 353.9m (EBIT 431.6m * (1 - 18.01%))
Current Ratio = 3.17 (Total Current Assets 1.79b / Total Current Liabilities 565.1m)
Debt / Equity = -2.76 (negative equity) (Debt 3.08b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -1.11b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.41 (Net Debt 1.83b / EBITDA 534.9m)
Debt / FCF = 2.78 (Net Debt 1.83b / FCF TTM 656.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -976.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.15% (Net Income 182.2m / Total Assets 2.65b)
RoE = -18.65% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 182.2m / Total Stockholder Equity -976.6m)
RoCE = 21.54% (EBIT 431.6m / Capital Employed (Equity -976.6m + L.T.Debt 2.98b))
RoIC = 21.35% (NOPAT 353.9m / Invested Capital 1.66b)
WACC = 6.30% (E(5.96b)/V(9.04b) * Re(9.47%) + D(3.08b)/V(9.04b) * Rd(0.18%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 9.47% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -4.34%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 85.13% ; FCFF base≈678.0m ; Y1≈706.6m ; Y5≈812.5m
Fair Price DCF = 197.1 (EV 21.29b - Net Debt 1.83b = Equity 19.46b / Shares 98.7m; r=6.30% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 4.47% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 13.97 | EPS CAGR: -1.99% | SUE: -2.47 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 26.97 | Revenue CAGR: -1.48% | SUE: 1.74 | # QB: 3
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.46 | Chg30d=+0.009 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=21
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.52 | Chg30d=+0.015 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+85.0% | Growth Revenue=+2.9%