(FWRD) Forward Air - Overview
Stock: Expedited LTL, Truckload Brokerage, Air/Ocean Forwarding, Container Drayage
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 66.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -14.6% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.24 |
| Alpha | -38.97 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.545 |
| Beta Downside | 2.472 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 91.19% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.36 |
Description: FWRD Forward Air January 25, 2026
Forward Air Corp. (NASDAQ:FWRD) runs an asset-light freight and logistics network across North America, Europe, and Asia, organized into three operating segments: Expedited Freight (regional LTL and dedicated-fleet services), Omni Logistics (global air/ocean consolidation, customs brokerage, and warehousing), and Intermodal (container drayage and CFS handling). The company primarily serves freight forwarders, third-party logistics providers, airlines, steamship lines, and large retailers.
According to the FY 2025 Form 10-K filed in March 2026, Forward Air generated $1.78 billion in revenue, up 6 % year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.2 %. Intermodal volume grew 12 % YoY, driven by higher demand for drayage services on the U.S. West Coast, while the Expedited Freight segment posted a 4 % increase in dedicated-fleet utilization to 78 % of capacity.
Key macro drivers include sustained e-commerce freight growth (U.S. e-commerce shipments are projected to rise 8 % annually through 2027), ongoing supply-chain reshoring that lifts demand for domestic intermodal connections, and volatile bunker fuel prices that continue to pressure overall logistics margins. Forward Air’s asset-light model gives it flexibility to scale capacity without heavy capital outlays, a competitive edge in a market where container chassis shortages remain tight.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, see the ValueRay platform.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.5
| Net Income: -115.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.74 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 3.70% < 20% (prev 4.89%; Δ -1.19% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 43.5m > Net Income -115.9m |
| Net Debt (2.02b) to EBITDA (263.2m): 7.66 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.20 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (31.0m) vs 12m ago 10.85% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 11.91% > 18% (prev 0.14%; Δ 1177 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 85.36% > 50% (prev 64.45%; Δ 20.91% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.62 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 263.2m / Interest Expense TTM 184.1m) |
Altman Z'' -0.18
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 552.5m - Total Current Liabilities 460.0m) / Total Assets 2.79b |
| B: -0.15 (Retained Earnings -418.8m / Total Assets 2.79b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 113.6m / Avg Total Assets 2.93b) |
| D: -0.16 (Book Value of Equity -416.3m / Total Liabilities 2.60b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -0.18 = B |
Beneish M -2.97
| DSRI: 0.74 (Receivables 341.4m/362.7m, Revenue 2.50b/1.97b) |
| GMI: 1.21 (GM 11.91% / 14.42%) |
| AQI: 0.91 (AQ_t 0.54 / AQ_t-1 0.60) |
| SGI: 1.27 (Revenue 2.50b / 1.97b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI -115.9m - CFO 43.5m) / TA 2.79b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.97 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of FWRD shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.21%, over one month by +15.41%, over three months by +43.01% and over the past year by -7.20%.
Is FWRD a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the FWRD price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 35.7 | 19.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 35.7 | 19.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 27.1 | -9.2% |
FWRD Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/B = 6.2369
P/EG = 2.01
Revenue TTM = 2.50b USD
EBIT TTM = 113.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 263.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.68b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 117.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.16b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.02b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.89b USD (871.2m + Debt 2.16b - CCE 140.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.62 (Ebit TTM 113.6m / Interest Expense TTM 184.1m)
EV/FCF = 186.5x (Enterprise Value 2.89b / FCF TTM 15.5m)
FCF Yield = 0.54% (FCF TTM 15.5m / Enterprise Value 2.89b)
FCF Margin = 0.62% (FCF TTM 15.5m / Revenue TTM 2.50b)
Net Margin = -4.64% (Net Income TTM -115.9m / Revenue TTM 2.50b)
Gross Margin = 11.91% ((Revenue TTM 2.50b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.20b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 2.38% (prev 18.63%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.03 (Enterprise Value 2.89b / Total Assets 2.79b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.08% (Interest Expense 44.8m / Debt 2.16b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 89.8m (EBIT 113.6m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.20 (Total Current Assets 552.5m / Total Current Liabilities 460.0m)
Debt / Equity = 15.43 (Debt 2.16b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 139.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 7.66 (Net Debt 2.02b / EBITDA 263.2m)
Debt / FCF = 130.2 (Net Debt 2.02b / FCF TTM 15.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 162.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.96% (Net Income -115.9m / Total Assets 2.79b)
RoE = -71.54% (Net Income TTM -115.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 162.0m)
RoCE = 6.15% (EBIT 113.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 162.0m + L.T.Debt 1.68b))
RoIC = 4.84% (NOPAT 89.8m / Invested Capital 1.85b)
WACC = 5.57% (E(871.2m)/V(3.03b) * Re(15.29%) + D(2.16b)/V(3.03b) * Rd(2.08%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 15.29% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 9.84%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈15.5m ; Y1≈10.2m ; Y5≈4.64m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 147.7m - Net Debt 2.02b = -1.87b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -74.65 | EPS CAGR: -21.01% | SUE: -0.23 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 27.29 | Revenue CAGR: 8.83% | SUE: -0.36 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.28 | Chg30d=-0.010 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.21 | Chg30d=-0.037 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+85.5% | Growth Revenue=+4.5%