(GERN) Geron - Ratings and Ratios
telomerase, inhibitor, oncology, therapeutics, myelodysplastic, syndromes
GERN EPS (Earnings per Share)
GERN Revenue
Description: GERN Geron
Geron Corp. (NASDAQ: GERN) is a U.S.-based biotech firm specializing in telomerase‑targeted therapeutics, most notably imetelstat, a first‑in‑class telomerase inhibitor under development for myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and myelofibrosis. The company’s valuation sits just under $1 billion, reflecting a high‑risk, high‑reward profile typical of late‑stage clinical‑stage biotechs.
Key performance indicators reveal a cash‑intensive operation: the latest balance sheet shows cash and cash equivalents of roughly $200 million, while quarterly cash burn exceeds $30 million, driven primarily by R&D spend on Phase III trials and commercial preparation. Net loss per share remains in the negative range (≈ $0.30 Q‑share), and return on equity is deeply negative (≈ ‑32 %), underscoring the absence of meaningful revenue streams.
The primary economic driver is the outcome of the imetelstat Phase III trial (IMerge). A positive efficacy read‑out could unlock a market estimated at $2‑3 billion for higher‑risk MDS and myelofibrosis, while a negative result would likely force a strategic pivot or asset sale, depressing the share price further. Ancillary drivers include the company’s partnership with Pfizer, which provides milestone payments and potential co‑development funding, and the broader biotech financing environment, where elevated interest rates and tighter capital markets increase dilution risk.
Operational levers include: (1) accelerating enrollment to meet trial timelines and reduce cash burn per patient; (2) negotiating additional partnership or licensing deals to diversify funding; (3) managing dilution through selective equity offerings versus convertible debt, given the current beta of ~0.73 indicating lower volatility relative to the market but still subject to biotech‑specific risk spikes.
Strategic risk factors are concentrated around regulatory outcomes, competitive pipelines (e.g., epigenetic agents, JAK inhibitors), and the company’s limited product diversification. Any material shift in these variables will dominate price action more than short‑term technical metrics such as moving averages or ATR.
GERN Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 880m |
| Sub-Industry | Biotechnology |
| IPO / Inception | 1996-06-30 |
GERN Stock Ratings
| Growth Rating | -57.5% |
| Fundamental | 36.3% |
| Dividend Rating | - |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -74.3% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.11 of 5 |
GERN Dividends
Currently no dividends paidGERN Growth Ratios
| Growth Correlation 3m | 7.2% |
| Growth Correlation 12m | -87.1% |
| Growth Correlation 5y | 34.1% |
| CAGR 5y | -18.63% |
| CAGR/Max DD 3y (Calmar Ratio) | -0.24 |
| CAGR/Mean DD 3y (Pain Ratio) | -0.55 |
| Sharpe Ratio 12m | -2.36 |
| Alpha | -80.34 |
| Beta | 0.571 |
| Volatility | 65.61% |
| Current Volume | 8991.3k |
| Average Volume 20d | 7220.3k |
| Stop Loss | 1.1 (-10.6%) |
| Signal | -0.86 |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.0
| Net Income (-88.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 9.87m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.32 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 14.16pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 268.4% (prev 19.6k%; Δ -19.4kpp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.32 (>3.0%) and CFO -178.3m <= Net Income -88.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 7.87 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (666.2m) change vs 12m ago 1.88% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 98.03% (prev -2113 %; Δ 2211 pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 32.74% (prev 0.31%; Δ 32.43pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -2.28 (EBITDA TTM -63.8m / Interest Expense TTM 28.5m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -12.69
| (A) 0.79 = (Total Current Assets 505.6m - Total Current Liabilities 64.3m) / Total Assets 555.2m |
| (B) -3.26 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -1.81b / Total Assets 555.2m |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -3.26 — check mapping/units |
| (C) -0.13 = EBIT TTM -64.9m / Avg Total Assets 502.3m |
| (D) -6.11 = Book Value of Equity -1.81b / Total Liabilities 295.7m |
| Total Rating: -12.69 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 36.34
| 1. Piotroski 1.0pt = -4.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield -29.02% = -5.0 |
| 3. FCF Margin data missing |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.47 = 2.39 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.69 = -2.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -21.12)% = -12.50 |
| 7. RoE -31.99% = -2.50 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 83.19% = 6.24 |
| 9. EPS Trend 84.12% = 4.21 |
What is the price of GERN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -11.51%, over one month by -1.60%, over three months by -3.15% and over the past year by -70.50%.
Is Geron a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of GERN is around 0.92 USD . This means that GERN is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -25.2%.
Is GERN a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 4
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the GERN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 3.6 | 195.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 3.6 | 195.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 1 | -17.1% |
Last update: 2025-10-04 03:52
GERN Fundamental Data Overview
P/S = 5.3541
P/B = 3.4663
P/EG = -2.38
Beta = 0.571
Revenue TTM = 164.4m USD
EBIT TTM = -64.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = -63.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 119.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 987.0k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 121.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 44.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 614.3m USD (880.5m + Debt 121.8m - CCE 388.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -2.28 (Ebit TTM -64.9m / Interest Expense TTM 28.5m)
FCF Yield = -29.02% (FCF TTM -178.3m / Enterprise Value 614.3m)
FCF Margin = -108.4% (FCF TTM -178.3m / Revenue TTM 164.4m)
Net Margin = -53.52% (Net Income TTM -88.0m / Revenue TTM 164.4m)
Gross Margin = 98.03% ((Revenue TTM 164.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.24m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 97.57% (prev 96.95%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.11 (Enterprise Value 614.3m / Total Assets 555.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.99% (Interest Expense 8.52m / Debt 121.8m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -51.3m (EBIT -64.9m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 7.87 (Total Current Assets 505.6m / Total Current Liabilities 64.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.47 (Debt 121.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 259.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.69 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 44.1m / EBITDA -63.8m)
Debt / FCF = -0.25 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 44.1m / FCF TTM -178.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 275.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -15.85% (Net Income -88.0m / Total Assets 555.2m)
RoE = -31.99% (Net Income TTM -88.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 275.1m)
RoCE = -16.47% (EBIT -64.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 275.1m + L.T.Debt 119.0m))
RoIC = -13.32% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -51.3m / Invested Capital 385.1m)
WACC = 7.80% (E(880.5m)/V(1.00b) * Re(8.12%) + D(121.8m)/V(1.00b) * Rd(6.99%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.12% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 5.81%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -178.3m)
EPS Correlation: 84.12 | EPS CAGR: 163.3% | SUE: 2.11 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 83.19 | Revenue CAGR: 540.4% | SUE: 0.35 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for GERN Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle