GERN Stock Analysis: Geron | NASDAQ
Biotechnology | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 983m USD | 12M Return: 6.3% | US3741631036 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 14.0M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 90.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality
Geron Corporation is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company headquartered in Foster City, California, specializing in the development of oncology therapeutics. The companys lead product, RYTELO, is a telomerase inhibitor approved for treating adult patients with low- to intermediate-1 risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) with transfusion-dependent anemia. Gerons pipeline is heavily concentrated in hematologic malignancies, with five additional clinical programs spanning Phases 1 through 3 across MDS, myelofibrosis, and acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The company was incorporated in 1990 and trades on NASDAQ under the ticker GERN.
As a small-cap biotechnology company, Geron operates within a sector characterized by long drug development cycles, significant R&D investment, and reliance on a small number of approved products for commercial revenue. The companys focus on telomerase inhibition represents a targeted oncology approach, as telomerase is an enzyme commonly overactive in cancer cells that helps maintain telomere length and enable continued cell division. Following RYTELOs FDA approval in 2024, Geron transitioned from a clinical-stage to a commercial-stage company, though it remains vulnerable to single-product concentration risk typical of early-commercial biopharmaceutical firms.
- RYTELO commercial launch drives initial revenue ramp
- IMpactMF Phase 3 readout in myelofibrosis could expand addressable market
- Reblozyl competition pressures RYTELO share in lower-risk MDS
- Dilutive financing risk persists amid elevated launch cash burn
| Net Income: -69.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 13.60 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 203.4% < 20% (prev 268.4%; Δ -64.99% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.22 > 3% & CFO -114.4m > Net Income -69.9m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 6.92 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (670.7m) vs 12m ago 0.68% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 83.21% > 18% (prev 97.79%; Δ -14.58% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 38.09% > 50% (prev 29.62%; Δ 8.47% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.41 > 6 (EBIT TTM -42.6m / Interest Expense TTM 30.2m) |
| A: 0.80 (Total Current Assets 486.3m - Total Current Liabilities 70.3m) / Total Assets 519.0m |
| B: -3.61 (Retained Earnings -1.88b / Total Assets 519.0m) |
| C: -0.08 (EBIT TTM -42.6m / Avg Total Assets 537.1m) |
| D: 0.73 (Book Value of Equity 218.6m / Total Liabilities 300.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -6.30 = D |
| DSRI: 1.09 (Receivables 53.5m/39.4m, Revenue 204.6m/164.4m) |
| GMI: 1.18 (GM 97.79% / 83.21%) |
| AQI: 0.70 (AQ_t 0.06 / AQ_t-1 0.08) |
| SGI: 1.24 (Revenue 204.6m / 164.4m) |
| TATA: 0.09 (NI -69.9m - CFO -114.4m) / TA 519.0m) |
| Beneish M = -2.79 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of August 22, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 1.52 with a total of 4,432,155 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.40%, over one month by +5.56%, over three months by +20.63% and over the past year by +6.29%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 1.30 (which is 14.5% or 2.4 ATR below the current price).
Geron has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.11. Therefore, it is recommended to buy GERN.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 4.3 | 179.6% |
P/S = 4.8054
P/B = 4.4964
P/EG = -2.38
Revenue TTM = 204.6m USD
EBIT TTM = -42.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -41.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 120.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.01m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 124.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 2.01m
Net Debt = -176.7m USD (calculated: Debt 124.2m - CCE 300.8m)
Enterprise Value = 806.3m USD (983.0m + Debt 124.2m - CCE 300.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.41 (Ebit TTM -42.6m / Interest Expense TTM 30.2m)
EV/FCF = -18.79x (Enterprise Value 806.3m / FCF TTM -42.9m)
FCF Yield = -5.32% (FCF TTM -42.9m / Enterprise Value 806.3m)
FCF Margin = -20.97% (FCF TTM -42.9m / Revenue TTM 204.6m)
Net Margin = -34.17% (Net Income TTM -69.9m / Revenue TTM 204.6m)
Gross Margin = 83.21% ((Revenue TTM 204.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 34.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 83.92% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.55 (Enterprise Value 806.3m / Total Assets 519.0m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 24.35% (Interest Expense 30.2m / Debt 124.2m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -33.7m (EBIT -42.6m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 6.15 (Total Current Assets 486.3m / Total Current Liabilities 79.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.57 (Debt 124.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 218.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.23 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -176.7m / EBITDA -41.7m)
Debt / FCF = 4.12 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -176.7m / FCF TTM -42.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 230.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -13.01% (Net Income -69.9m / Total Assets 519.0m)
RoE = -30.31% (Net Income TTM -69.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 230.6m)
RoCE = -12.15% (EBIT -42.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 230.6m + L.T.Debt 120.1m))
RoIC = -7.66% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -33.7m / Invested Capital 439.5m)
WACC = 9.92% (E(983.0m)/V(1.11b) * Re(8.74%) + D(124.2m)/V(1.11b) * Rd(24.35%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.74% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 72.27 | Cagr: 4.80%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -42.9m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.79 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 90.73 | Revenue CAGR: 1.60k% | SUE: 0.37 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.01 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.02 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+80.6% | GrowthRev=+28.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.04 | Chg30d=-38.46% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+300.0% | GrowthRev=+44.7%