(GERN) Geron - Overview

Sector: Healthcare | Industry: Biotechnology | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 892m USD | Total Return: 6.6% in 12m

Telomerase Inhibitors, Oncology Therapeutics, Hematologic Drugs
Total Rating 19
Safety 20
Buy Signal -0.82
Biotechnology
Industry Rotation: -4.3
Market Cap: 892M
Avg Turnover: 22.2M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility77.4%
VaR 5th Pctl12.8%
VaR vs Median0.52%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.36
Rel. Str. IBD19.4
Rel. Str. Peer Group15.8
Character TTM
Beta0.816
Beta Downside1.620
Hurst Exponent0.440
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD78.98%
CAGR/Max DD-0.31
CAGR/Mean DD-0.55
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of GERN over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": -0.09, "2021-06": -0.09, "2021-09": -0.08, "2021-12": -0.1, "2022-03": -0.09, "2022-06": -0.07, "2022-09": -0.1, "2022-12": -0.1, "2023-03": -0.07, "2023-06": -0.09, "2023-09": -0.08, "2023-12": -0.09, "2024-03": -0.09, "2024-06": -0.1, "2024-09": -0.04, "2024-12": -0.0356, "2025-03": -0.03, "2025-06": -0.02, "2025-09": -0.03, "2025-12": -0.0212, "2026-03": -0.0049,
EPS CAGR: 31.09%
EPS Trend: 83.2%
Last SUE: 1.50
Qual. Beats: 1
Revenue Revenue of GERN over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 0.137, 2021-06: 0.107, 2021-09: 0.109, 2021-12: 1.04, 2022-03: 0.123, 2022-06: 0.073, 2022-09: 0.297, 2022-12: 0.103, 2023-03: 0.021, 2023-06: 0.029, 2023-09: 0.164, 2023-12: 0.023, 2024-03: 0.304, 2024-06: 0.882, 2024-09: 28.271, 2024-12: 47.537, 2025-03: 39.603, 2025-06: 49.036, 2025-09: 47.227, 2025-12: 48.015, 2026-03: 51.837,
Rev. CAGR: 475.91%
Rev. Trend: 87.0%
Last SUE: 0.22
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Interest Coverage Ratio -1.3 is critical

Altman Z'' -13.04 < 1.0 - financial distress zone

Choppy

Tailwinds

Confidence

Description: GERN Geron

Geron Corporation is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing telomerase inhibitors for hematologic malignancies. Its lead product, RYTELO, targets adult patients with transfusion-dependent anemia associated with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). The company maintains an extensive clinical pipeline, including Phase 3 trials for relapsed/refractory myelofibrosis and various early-stage studies for acute myeloid leukemia.

Operating within the biotechnology sector, Geron utilizes a high-risk, high-reward business model characterized by significant research and development expenditures prior to regulatory approval. Telomerase inhibition represents a specialized therapeutic approach designed to limit the proliferative capacity of malignant stem cells. Investors may find further insights on sector performance and valuation metrics at ValueRay.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • RYTELO commercial adoption rates drive near-term revenue growth and cash flow
  • IMpactMF Phase 3 clinical trial results determine expansion into myelofibrosis market
  • Regulatory approvals for IMerge in international jurisdictions influence long-term valuation
  • High research and development expenses pressure margins during commercial launch phase
  • Competitive landscape in myelodysplastic syndrome treatments impacts RYTELO market share capture
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict) 1.5
Net Income: -69.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.24 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 12.70 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 216.7% < 20% (prev 372.1%; Δ -155.4% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.24 > 3% & CFO -126.0m > Net Income -69.6m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 6.78 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (669.4m) vs 12m ago 0.52% < -2%
Gross Margin: 86.59% > 18% (prev 0.98%; Δ 8.56k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 35.77% > 50% (prev 20.68%; Δ 15.09% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.32 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -40.7m / Interest Expense TTM 31.6m)
Altman Z'' -13.04
A: 0.80 (Total Current Assets 498.5m - Total Current Liabilities 73.6m) / Total Assets 534.1m
B: -3.48 (Retained Earnings -1.86b / Total Assets 534.1m)
C: -0.08 (EBIT TTM -41.7m / Avg Total Assets 548.3m)
D: -6.09 (Book Value of Equity -1.86b / Total Liabilities 305.0m)
Altman-Z'' Score: -13.04 = D
Beneish M -2.75
DSRI: 0.77 (Receivables 44.1m/34.0m, Revenue 196.1m/116.3m)
GMI: 1.13 (GM 86.59% / 97.88%)
AQI: 0.58 (AQ_t 0.06 / AQ_t-1 0.11)
SGI: 1.69 (Revenue 196.1m / 116.3m)
TATA: 0.11 (NI -69.6m - CFO -126.0m) / TA 534.1m)
Beneish M-Score: -2.75 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of GERN shares? As of May 16, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 1.29 with a total of 16,152,058 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.19%, over one month by -23.67%, over three months by -28.33% and over the past year by +6.61%.
Is GERN a buy, sell or hold? Geron has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.11. Therefore, it is recommended to buy GERN.
  • StrongBuy: 4
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 3
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the GERN price?
Analysts Target Price 3.4 163.6%
Geron (GERN) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 14 May 2026
P/S = 4.5469
P/B = 3.8921
P/EG = -2.38
Revenue TTM = 196.1m USD
EBIT TTM = -41.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = -40.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 119.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 20.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 251.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -62.4m USD (recalculated: Debt 251.8m - CCE 314.3m)
Enterprise Value = 829.3m USD (891.7m + Debt 251.8m - CCE 314.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.32 (Ebit TTM -41.7m / Interest Expense TTM 31.6m)
EV/FCF = -6.57x (Enterprise Value 829.3m / FCF TTM -126.3m)
FCF Yield = -15.23% (FCF TTM -126.3m / Enterprise Value 829.3m)
FCF Margin = -64.40% (FCF TTM -126.3m / Revenue TTM 196.1m)
Net Margin = -35.48% (Net Income TTM -69.6m / Revenue TTM 196.1m)
Gross Margin = 86.59% ((Revenue TTM 196.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 26.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.55 (Enterprise Value 829.3m / Total Assets 534.1m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.84% (Interest Expense 7.15m / Debt 251.8m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -33.0m (EBIT -41.7m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 6.78 (Total Current Assets 498.5m / Total Current Liabilities 73.6m)
Debt / Equity = 1.10 (Debt 251.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 229.1m)
 Debt / EBITDA = 1.53 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -62.4m / EBITDA -40.7m)
 Debt / FCF = 0.49 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -62.4m / FCF TTM -126.3m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 240.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -12.69% (Net Income -69.6m / Total Assets 534.1m)
RoE = -28.90% (Net Income TTM -69.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 240.8m)
RoCE = -11.58% (EBIT -41.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 240.8m + L.T.Debt 119.5m))
 RoIC = -9.06% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -33.0m / Invested Capital 364.0m)
 WACC = 7.39% (E(891.7m)/V(1.14b) * Re(8.85%) + D(251.8m)/V(1.14b) * Rd(2.84%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.85% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 1.79%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -126.3m)
 EPS Correlation: 83.20 | EPS CAGR: 31.09% | SUE: 1.50 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 87.01 | Revenue CAGR: 475.9% | SUE: 0.22 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.01 | Chg30d=+40.71% | Revisions=+20% | Analysts=6
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.01 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.02 | Chg30d=+53.81% | Revisions=+20% | GrowthEPS=+84.6% | GrowthRev=+27.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.07 | Chg30d=-12.50% | Revisions=-20% | GrowthEPS=+400.0% | GrowthRev=+42.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +20%