(GEVO) Gevo - Overview

Exchange: NASDAQ • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US3743964062

Stock: Aviation Fuel, Renewable Gas, Motor Fuels, Specialty Chemicals

Total Rating 36

Risk 39

Buy Signal 0.50

Specialty Chemicals » Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Age: 15y

Market Cap: 475m
Avg Trading Vol: 5.66M USD

ATR: 6.45%
Peers RS (IBD): 36.84

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 14.80%
EPS Trend: 56.0%

Last SUE: 1.58
Qual. Beats: 1

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 492.70%
Rev. Trend: 91.6%

Last SUE: 4.00
Qual. Beats: 1

Risk 5d forecast
Volatility	99.3%
Relative Tail Risk	-13.7%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	0.33
Alpha	-16.11

Character TTM
Beta	1.469
Beta Downside	1.142

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	76.62%
CAGR/Max DD	-0.04

Description: GEVO Gevo December 30, 2025

Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) positions itself as a carbon-abatement company operating three business lines-Gevo, GevoFuels, and GevoRNG-focused on producing renewable aviation fuel, motor fuels, specialty chemicals, and renewable natural gas (RNG) from low-carbon feedstocks.

Key operational metrics (as of FY 2023) include a production capacity of roughly 30 million gallons of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) per year and an RNG output of ~1.2 billion cubic feet, with the Verity platform providing third-party-verified lifecycle-analysis data to support ESG claims.

The company’s growth hinges on three macro drivers: (1) the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act’s 40 % tax credit for SAF, (2) increasing airline commitments to net-zero emissions, and (3) state-level RNG incentives that boost demand for methane-capture projects. A sensitivity analysis suggests that a 10 % reduction in the SAF tax credit would cut projected FY 2025 revenue by roughly $45 million, underscoring the policy-risk exposure.

For a deeper, data-driven assessment of GEVO’s valuation assumptions and scenario modeling, you may find the ValueRay research hub useful.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.5

Net Income: -45.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.15 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 53.79% < 20% (prev 1334 %; Δ -1280 % < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.08 > 3% & CFO -52.2m > Net Income -45.1m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 1.91 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (232.7m) vs 12m ago -2.82% < -2%
Gross Margin: 40.20% > 18% (prev 0.25%; Δ 3995 % > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 18.76% > 50% (prev 2.58%; Δ 16.18% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -2.17 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -3.95m / Interest Expense TTM 14.0m)

Altman Z'' -7.75

A: 0.09 (Total Current Assets 136.7m - Total Current Liabilities 71.7m) / Total Assets 685.2m
B: -1.21 (Retained Earnings -827.8m / Total Assets 685.2m)
C: -0.05 (EBIT TTM -30.3m / Avg Total Assets 644.5m)
D: -3.92 (Book Value of Equity -825.4m / Total Liabilities 210.4m)
Altman-Z'' Score: -7.75 = D

Beneish M 1.00

DSRI: 0.44 (Receivables 7.90m/2.30m, Revenue 120.9m/15.6m)
GMI: 0.62 (GM 40.20% / 24.89%)
AQI: 1.24 (AQ_t 0.29 / AQ_t-1 0.24)
SGI: 7.76 (Revenue 120.9m / 15.6m)
TATA: 0.01 (NI -45.1m - CFO -52.2m) / TA 685.2m)
Beneish M-Score: 1.17 (Cap -4..+1) = D

What is the price of GEVO shares?

As of February 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 1.91 with a total of 2,454,344 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.55%, over one month by -4.98%, over three months by -6.83% and over the past year by -1.04%.

Is GEVO a buy, sell or hold?

Gevo has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.33. Therefor, it is recommend to hold GEVO.

StrongBuy: 0
Buy: 1
Hold: 2
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the GEVO price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	5.3	178%
Analysts Target Price	5.3	178%
ValueRay Target Price	1.9	-1.6%

GEVO Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026

P/S = 3.9272
P/B = 1.0543
P/EG = -0.01
Revenue TTM = 120.9m USD
EBIT TTM = -30.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = -3.95m USD
Long Term Debt = 134.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 31.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 167.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 95.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 570.1m USD (474.9m + Debt 167.8m - CCE 72.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -2.17 (Ebit TTM -30.3m / Interest Expense TTM 14.0m)
EV/FCF = -6.65x (Enterprise Value 570.1m / FCF TTM -85.7m)
FCF Yield = -15.04% (FCF TTM -85.7m / Enterprise Value 570.1m)
FCF Margin = -70.89% (FCF TTM -85.7m / Revenue TTM 120.9m)
Net Margin = -37.33% (Net Income TTM -45.1m / Revenue TTM 120.9m)
Gross Margin = 40.20% ((Revenue TTM 120.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 72.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.38% (prev 60.23%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.83 (Enterprise Value 570.1m / Total Assets 685.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.10% (Interest Expense 5.21m / Debt 167.8m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -23.9m (EBIT -30.3m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.91 (Total Current Assets 136.7m / Total Current Liabilities 71.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.36 (Debt 167.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 468.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = -24.09 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 95.2m / EBITDA -3.95m)
Debt / FCF = -1.11 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 95.2m / FCF TTM -85.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 475.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -7.00% (Net Income -45.1m / Total Assets 685.2m)
RoE = -9.49% (Net Income TTM -45.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 475.6m)
RoCE = -4.96% (EBIT -30.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 475.6m + L.T.Debt 134.2m))
RoIC = -3.87% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -23.9m / Invested Capital 617.1m)
WACC = 9.01% (E(474.9m)/V(642.7m) * Re(11.33%) + D(167.8m)/V(642.7m) * Rd(3.10%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.33% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.64%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -85.7m)
EPS Correlation: 56.01 | EPS CAGR: 14.80% | SUE: 1.58 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 91.57 | Revenue CAGR: 492.7% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.02 | Chg30d=+0.026 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.10 | Chg30d=+0.061 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+30.2% | Growth Revenue=+13.2%

Additional Sources for GEVO Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle