(GPRE) Green Plains Renewable - Overview
Stock: Ethanol, Distiller Grains, Renewable Corn Oil, Ultra-High Protein
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 71.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.03% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.99 |
| Alpha | 40.86 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.642 |
| Beta Downside | 1.825 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 91.02% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.29 |
Description: GPRE Green Plains Renewable December 28, 2025
Green Plains Inc. (NASDAQ: GPRE) is a U.S.–based producer of low-carbon fuels, operating two core segments: Ethanol Production, which handles the manufacture, storage, and transport of ethanol, distiller grains, ultra-high protein, and renewable corn oil; and Agribusiness & Energy Services, which sources grain, markets commodities (including third-party ethanol), and offers grain-drying and storage solutions to producers. The company, incorporated in 2004 and headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska, rebranded from Green Plains Renewable Energy to Green Plains Inc. in May 2014.
Key recent metrics: in 2023 the firm processed roughly 2.2 billion gallons of ethanol, achieving a reported EBITDA margin of 12.5 %-well above the industry median of 9 %-driven by strong Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) credit prices (≈ $1.30 per Ethanol-Equivalence Unit) and a favorable corn-to-ethanol cost spread. Natural-gas-linked power generation for its drying facilities helped contain energy costs, while the agribusiness arm contributed an additional $150 million in commodity-trading revenue, reflecting heightened grain-price volatility. The sector’s outlook remains tied to U.S. ethanol policy, corn supply dynamics, and the ongoing transition toward higher-blend renewable fuels.
For a deeper quantitative breakdown, you might explore GPRE’s metrics on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income: -121.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 11.68 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 10.21% < 20% (prev 7.46%; Δ 2.75% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 110.9m > Net Income -121.3m |
| Net Debt (278.5m) to EBITDA (31.3m): 8.90 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.79 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (73.6m) vs 12m ago 15.10% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 1.84% > 18% (prev 0.05%; Δ 178.7% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 124.5% > 50% (prev 138.0%; Δ -13.48% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.88 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 31.3m / Interest Expense TTM 76.7m) |
Altman Z'' 0.68
| A: 0.14 (Total Current Assets 482.2m - Total Current Liabilities 268.7m) / Total Assets 1.58b |
| B: -0.29 (Retained Earnings -451.5m / Total Assets 1.58b) |
| C: -0.04 (EBIT TTM -67.1m / Avg Total Assets 1.68b) |
| D: 0.95 (Book Value of Equity 766.2m / Total Liabilities 806.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.68 = B |
Beneish M -1.73
| DSRI: 0.92 (Receivables 74.4m/94.9m, Revenue 2.09b/2.46b) |
| GMI: 2.88 (GM 1.84% / 5.31%) |
| AQI: 0.86 (AQ_t 0.05 / AQ_t-1 0.06) |
| SGI: 0.85 (Revenue 2.09b / 2.46b) |
| TATA: -0.15 (NI -121.3m - CFO 110.9m) / TA 1.58b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -1.73 (Cap -4..+1) = CCC |
What is the price of GPRE shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +20.86%, over one month by +42.20%, over three months by +43.97% and over the past year by +67.07%.
Is GPRE a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the GPRE price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 12.3 | -11% |
| Analysts Target Price | 12.3 | -11% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 14.6 | 5.3% |
GPRE Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/S = 0.3935
P/B = 1.1453
P/EG = -4.01
Revenue TTM = 2.09b USD
EBIT TTM = -67.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 31.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 306.4m USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 59.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 508.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 278.5m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.21b USD (884.1m + Debt 508.4m - CCE 182.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.88 (Ebit TTM -67.1m / Interest Expense TTM 76.7m)
EV/FCF = 16.43x (Enterprise Value 1.21b / FCF TTM 73.7m)
FCF Yield = 6.09% (FCF TTM 73.7m / Enterprise Value 1.21b)
FCF Margin = 3.52% (FCF TTM 73.7m / Revenue TTM 2.09b)
Net Margin = -5.80% (Net Income TTM -121.3m / Revenue TTM 2.09b)
Gross Margin = 1.84% ((Revenue TTM 2.09b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.05b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -13.59% (prev 10.26%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.77 (Enterprise Value 1.21b / Total Assets 1.58b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.20% (Interest Expense 6.09m / Debt 508.4m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -53.0m (EBIT -67.1m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.79 (Total Current Assets 482.2m / Total Current Liabilities 268.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.66 (Debt 508.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 766.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 8.90 (Net Debt 278.5m / EBITDA 31.3m)
Debt / FCF = 3.78 (Net Debt 278.5m / FCF TTM 73.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 767.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -7.22% (Net Income -121.3m / Total Assets 1.58b)
RoE = -15.81% (Net Income TTM -121.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 767.0m)
RoCE = -6.26% (EBIT -67.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 767.0m + L.T.Debt 306.4m))
RoIC = -4.30% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -53.0m / Invested Capital 1.23b)
WACC = 7.94% (E(884.1m)/V(1.39b) * Re(11.96%) + D(508.4m)/V(1.39b) * Rd(1.20%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.96% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 11.79%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 70.50% ; FCFF base≈73.7m ; Y1≈48.4m ; Y5≈22.1m
Fair Price DCF = 2.26 (EV 436.1m - Net Debt 278.5m = Equity 157.7m / Shares 69.8m; r=7.94% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 8.85 | EPS CAGR: 65.20% | SUE: -0.53 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -91.55 | Revenue CAGR: -14.79% | SUE: -3.33 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.13 | Chg30d=+0.071 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.16 | Chg30d=+0.002 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+107.2% | Growth Revenue=+5.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.48 | Chg30d=+0.129 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+195.4% | Growth Revenue=+24.3%