(GRPN) Groupon - Overview
Stock: Deals, Travel, Goods, Services, Experiences
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 95.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -20.3% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.47 |
| Alpha | -2.55 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.136 |
| Beta Downside | 0.966 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 66.28% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.35 |
Description: GRPN Groupon January 16, 2026
Groupon, Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN) runs a digital marketplace that links consumers with merchants by offering discounted goods, services, and experiences across categories such as beauty, dining, travel, and retail. Deals are delivered via its website, mobile apps, email, push notifications, affiliate networks, and offline channels, enabling users to browse, purchase, and redeem offers on-the-go.
In FY 2023 the company generated roughly $1.7 billion in revenue, a 4% year-over-year increase, while maintaining a merchant base of about 150 k active partners. However, net income remained negative (≈ $150 million loss), reflecting ongoing investment in technology and marketing. The “Groupon+” subscription model now contributes ~ 10% of total revenue, indicating a strategic shift toward recurring-revenue streams.
Key drivers for Groupon’s outlook include: (1) consumer discretionary spending trends-higher inflation can suppress deal usage, but price-sensitive shoppers may increase demand for coupons; (2) the broader “broadline retail” sector’s migration to omnichannel experiences, which pressures Groupon to enhance mobile engagement; and (3) competitive pressure from other deal-aggregators and direct merchant loyalty programs, which can erode market share if Groupon’s personalization and merchant acquisition costs rise.
For a deeper quantitative breakdown, you may find the ValueRay platform’s analyst tools useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: -141.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.89 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -4.50% < 20% (prev -3.53%; Δ -0.97% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 74.9m > Net Income -141.5m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 0.93 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (40.6m) vs 12m ago -9.85% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 90.38% > 18% (prev 0.90%; Δ 8948 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 85.82% > 50% (prev 91.22%; Δ -5.40% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -6.09 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -62.9m / Interest Expense TTM 13.7m) |
Altman Z'' -12.31
| A: -0.04 (Total Current Assets 314.2m - Total Current Liabilities 336.5m) / Total Assets 608.2m |
| B: -2.63 (Retained Earnings -1.60b / Total Assets 608.2m) |
| C: -0.14 (EBIT TTM -83.6m / Avg Total Assets 578.1m) |
| D: -2.41 (Book Value of Equity -1.61b / Total Liabilities 667.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -12.31 = D |
Beneish M -3.72
| DSRI: 0.71 (Receivables 30.0m/42.7m, Revenue 496.1m/499.9m) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 90.38% / 89.70%) |
| AQI: 0.88 (AQ_t 0.44 / AQ_t-1 0.51) |
| SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 496.1m / 499.9m) |
| TATA: -0.36 (NI -141.5m - CFO 74.9m) / TA 608.2m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.72 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of GRPN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.08%, over one month by -20.51%, over three months by -29.68% and over the past year by +13.11%.
Is GRPN a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the GRPN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 35.3 | 165.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 35.3 | 165.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 12.2 | -8.2% |
GRPN Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 1.1624
P/B = 17.7667
P/EG = 14.657
Revenue TTM = 496.1m USD
EBIT TTM = -83.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -62.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 310.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 37.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 351.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 83.4m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 660.1m USD (576.7m + Debt 351.2m - CCE 267.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -6.09 (Ebit TTM -83.6m / Interest Expense TTM 13.7m)
EV/FCF = 10.99x (Enterprise Value 660.1m / FCF TTM 60.1m)
FCF Yield = 9.10% (FCF TTM 60.1m / Enterprise Value 660.1m)
FCF Margin = 12.11% (FCF TTM 60.1m / Revenue TTM 496.1m)
Net Margin = -28.52% (Net Income TTM -141.5m / Revenue TTM 496.1m)
Gross Margin = 90.38% ((Revenue TTM 496.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 47.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 89.10% (prev 91.03%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.09 (Enterprise Value 660.1m / Total Assets 608.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.96% (Interest Expense 3.39m / Debt 351.2m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -66.1m (EBIT -83.6m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.93 (Total Current Assets 314.2m / Total Current Liabilities 336.5m)
Debt / Equity = -5.90 (negative equity) (Debt 351.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -59.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.33 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 83.4m / EBITDA -62.9m)
Debt / FCF = 1.39 (Net Debt 83.4m / FCF TTM 60.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 19.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -24.48% (Net Income -141.5m / Total Assets 608.2m)
RoE = -726.3% (Net Income TTM -141.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 19.5m)
RoCE = -25.38% (EBIT -83.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 19.5m + L.T.Debt 310.1m))
RoIC = -22.76% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -66.1m / Invested Capital 290.2m)
WACC = 6.57% (E(576.7m)/V(927.9m) * Re(10.10%) + D(351.2m)/V(927.9m) * Rd(0.96%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.10% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 4.32%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.35% ; FCFF base≈47.0m ; Y1≈34.7m ; Y5≈20.0m
Fair Price DCF = 10.59 (EV 514.9m - Net Debt 83.4m = Equity 431.5m / Shares 40.8m; r=6.57% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -30.93% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-30.93%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: 20.59 | EPS CAGR: 8.79% | SUE: -0.19 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -74.83 | Revenue CAGR: -14.72% | SUE: 0.35 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.30 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.87 | Chg30d=-0.420 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+450.0% | Growth Revenue=+10.6%