(HLIT) Harmonic - Ratings and Ratios
Software-Based Broadband Access, Video Processing Hardware, SaaS Streaming Platform
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 47.1% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 62.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -18.97% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.63 |
| Alpha | -40.96 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.20 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.353 |
| Beta | 1.166 |
| Beta Downside | 1.189 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 55.14% |
| Mean DD | 32.48% |
| Median DD | 36.19% |
Description: HLIT Harmonic November 16, 2025
Harmonic Inc. (NASDAQ:HLIT) designs and sells end-to-end broadband access and video processing solutions to telecom operators, cable companies, satellite and pay-TV providers, as well as streaming media firms. The firm operates through two primary segments: Broadband and Video.
The Broadband segment delivers software-based access platforms-including the cOS suite and its central cloud services-under a subscription model that enables operators to manage, provision, and monetize broadband connectivity at scale.
The Video segment provides a portfolio of hardware and software products such as encoders, high-density stream processors, edge processors, and the VOS360 SaaS platform, which supports live streaming, VOD, catch-up TV, network-DVR, and dynamic ad insertion for both traditional broadcasters and over-the-top (OTT) services.
Key recent metrics: Harmonic reported FY 2024 revenue of $506 million, a 12% YoY increase driven by a 20% rise in Video segment bookings, while its broadband subscription ARR grew 15% year-over-year. The broader market is being propelled by accelerating global broadband penetration (expected to exceed 5 billion users by 2027) and sustained OTT spend growth of roughly 10% CAGR, both of which underpin demand for scalable, cloud-native video and access solutions.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you may explore the HLIT valuation metrics on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.5
| Net Income (49.6m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 38.1m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.18 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 16.27pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 26.73% (prev 28.01%; Δ -1.28pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.19 (>3.0%) and CFO 144.2m > Net Income 49.6m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (19.2m) to EBITDA (93.9m) ratio: 0.20 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 2.08 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (113.3m) change vs 12m ago -3.44% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 55.71% (prev 51.81%; Δ 3.89pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 83.73% (prev 82.07%; Δ 1.66pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 12.92 (EBITDA TTM 93.9m / Interest Expense TTM 6.40m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -13.13
| (A) 0.22 = (Total Current Assets 327.0m - Total Current Liabilities 157.1m) / Total Assets 758.6m |
| (B) -2.65 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -2.01b / Total Assets 758.6m |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -2.65 — check mapping/units |
| (C) 0.11 = EBIT TTM 82.7m / Avg Total Assets 759.2m |
| (D) -6.39 = Book Value of Equity -2.02b / Total Liabilities 315.6m |
| Total Rating: -13.13 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 64.02
| 1. Piotroski 8.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 12.42% |
| 3. FCF Margin 20.99% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.33 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.20 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -4.68)% |
| 7. RoE 11.02% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -3.38% |
| 9. EPS Trend 10.88% |
What is the price of HLIT shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.44%, over one month by -11.81%, over three months by -1.98% and over the past year by -27.28%.
Is HLIT a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HLIT price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 11.8 | 25.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 11.8 | 25.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 8.9 | -5.5% |
HLIT Fundamental Data Overview November 20, 2025
P/E Trailing = 22.0952
P/E Forward = 19.1939
P/S = 1.6606
P/B = 2.3561
P/EG = -0.21
Beta = 1.053
Revenue TTM = 635.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 82.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 93.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 117.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 14.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 146.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 19.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.07b USD (1.06b + Debt 146.6m - CCE 127.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 12.92 (Ebit TTM 82.7m / Interest Expense TTM 6.40m)
FCF Yield = 12.42% (FCF TTM 133.5m / Enterprise Value 1.07b)
FCF Margin = 20.99% (FCF TTM 133.5m / Revenue TTM 635.7m)
Net Margin = 7.81% (Net Income TTM 49.6m / Revenue TTM 635.7m)
Gross Margin = 55.71% ((Revenue TTM 635.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 281.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 54.17% (prev 53.46%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.42 (Enterprise Value 1.07b / Total Assets 758.6m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.81% (Interest Expense 1.18m / Debt 146.6m)
Taxrate = 69.20% (6.05m / 8.75m)
NOPAT = 25.5m (EBIT 82.7m * (1 - 69.20%))
Current Ratio = 2.08 (Total Current Assets 327.0m / Total Current Liabilities 157.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.33 (Debt 146.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 443.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.20 (Net Debt 19.2m / EBITDA 93.9m)
Debt / FCF = 0.14 (Net Debt 19.2m / FCF TTM 133.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 450.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.54% (Net Income 49.6m / Total Assets 758.6m)
RoE = 11.02% (Net Income TTM 49.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 450.2m)
RoCE = 14.56% (EBIT 82.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 450.2m + L.T.Debt 117.9m))
RoIC = 4.40% (NOPAT 25.5m / Invested Capital 578.6m)
WACC = 9.08% (E(1.06b)/V(1.20b) * Re(10.31%) + D(146.6m)/V(1.20b) * Rd(0.81%) * (1-Tc(0.69)))
Discount Rate = 10.31% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -1.03%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 60.97% ; FCFE base≈84.1m ; Y1≈55.2m ; Y5≈25.3m
Fair Price DCF = 3.18 (DCF Value 357.3m / Shares Outstanding 112.2m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 10.88 | EPS CAGR: -7.38% | SUE: 1.22 | # QB: 5
Revenue Correlation: -3.38 | Revenue CAGR: -2.37% | SUE: 2.45 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.06 | Chg30d=-0.017 | Revisions Net=-3 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.51 | Chg30d=-0.090 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+305.2% | Growth Revenue=+20.0%
Additional Sources for HLIT Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle