(HLIT) Harmonic - Overview
Stock: Broadband Software, Video Processing, SaaS Platform, Network Hardware
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 45.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -15.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.18 |
| Alpha | -28.84 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.156 |
| Beta Downside | 1.126 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 55.14% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.18 |
Description: HLIT Harmonic January 19, 2026
Harmonic Inc. (NASDAQ:HLIT) delivers end-to-end broadband and video solutions to operators and media companies worldwide, organized into two primary segments: Broadband and Video.
The Broadband segment focuses on the cOS software suite, which provides cloud-native broadband access and a subscription-based central cloud service for operators seeking to virtualize their access networks. The Video segment offers a portfolio of hardware (encoders, video servers, high-density stream processors) and SaaS platforms such as VOS360, enabling live, VOD, catch-up, and cloud-DVR streaming with dynamic ad insertion for cable, satellite, telco Pay-TV, and over-the-top (OTT) providers.
Key performance indicators from Harmonic’s most recent fiscal year show revenue of roughly $1.1 billion, a year-over-year growth of 9 % driven largely by expanding OTT demand, and an adjusted EBITDA margin near 12 %. The company’s exposure to the broader communications-equipment sector is tied to macro trends such as continued broadband penetration (global fixed-broadband subscriptions grew ~2 % YoY in 2023) and rising capex budgets for video-centric infrastructure, which analysts project to expand at a 4 % CAGR through 2028.
Given the accelerating shift toward cloud-based video delivery and the competitive pressure on traditional cable operators, Harmonic’s ability to capture market share will hinge on the adoption rate of its SaaS offerings versus on-premise hardware-a factor that remains uncertain pending carrier-grade validation cycles.
For a deeper, data-driven view of HLIT’s valuation dynamics, you may find the ValueRay research hub useful as a next step.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.5
| Net Income: 49.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.18 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 16.27 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 26.73% < 20% (prev 28.01%; Δ -1.28% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.19 > 3% & CFO 144.2m > Net Income 49.6m |
| Net Debt (19.2m) to EBITDA (93.9m): 0.20 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.08 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (113.3m) vs 12m ago -3.44% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 55.71% > 18% (prev 0.52%; Δ 5519 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 83.73% > 50% (prev 82.07%; Δ 1.66% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 12.92 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 93.9m / Interest Expense TTM 6.40m) |
Altman Z'' -13.13
| A: 0.22 (Total Current Assets 327.0m - Total Current Liabilities 157.1m) / Total Assets 758.6m |
| B: -2.65 (Retained Earnings -2.01b / Total Assets 758.6m) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 82.7m / Avg Total Assets 759.2m) |
| D: -6.39 (Book Value of Equity -2.02b / Total Liabilities 315.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -13.13 = D |
Beneish M -3.52
| DSRI: 0.60 (Receivables 108.9m/178.1m, Revenue 635.7m/623.6m) |
| GMI: 0.93 (GM 55.71% / 51.81%) |
| AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.52 / AQ_t-1 0.50) |
| SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 635.7m / 623.6m) |
| TATA: -0.12 (NI 49.6m - CFO 144.2m) / TA 758.6m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.52 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of HLIT shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.91%, over one month by +0.40%, over three months by -0.79% and over the past year by -11.01%.
Is HLIT a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HLIT price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 11.8 | 16.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 11.8 | 16.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 9.9 | -2.5% |
HLIT Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/E Forward = 19.1939
P/S = 1.7215
P/B = 2.4549
P/EG = -0.21
Revenue TTM = 635.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 82.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 93.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 117.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 14.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 146.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 19.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.11b USD (1.09b + Debt 146.6m - CCE 127.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 12.92 (Ebit TTM 82.7m / Interest Expense TTM 6.40m)
EV/FCF = 8.34x (Enterprise Value 1.11b / FCF TTM 133.5m)
FCF Yield = 11.98% (FCF TTM 133.5m / Enterprise Value 1.11b)
FCF Margin = 20.99% (FCF TTM 133.5m / Revenue TTM 635.7m)
Net Margin = 7.81% (Net Income TTM 49.6m / Revenue TTM 635.7m)
Gross Margin = 55.71% ((Revenue TTM 635.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 281.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 54.17% (prev 53.46%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.47 (Enterprise Value 1.11b / Total Assets 758.6m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.81% (Interest Expense 1.18m / Debt 146.6m)
Taxrate = 32.31% (18.7m / 57.9m)
NOPAT = 56.0m (EBIT 82.7m * (1 - 32.31%))
Current Ratio = 2.08 (Total Current Assets 327.0m / Total Current Liabilities 157.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.33 (Debt 146.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 443.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.20 (Net Debt 19.2m / EBITDA 93.9m)
Debt / FCF = 0.14 (Net Debt 19.2m / FCF TTM 133.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 450.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.54% (Net Income 49.6m / Total Assets 758.6m)
RoE = 11.02% (Net Income TTM 49.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 450.2m)
RoCE = 14.56% (EBIT 82.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 450.2m + L.T.Debt 117.9m))
RoIC = 9.68% (NOPAT 56.0m / Invested Capital 578.6m)
WACC = 9.03% (E(1.09b)/V(1.24b) * Re(10.17%) + D(146.6m)/V(1.24b) * Rd(0.81%) * (1-Tc(0.32)))
Discount Rate = 10.17% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -1.03%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 65.68% ; FCFF base≈84.1m ; Y1≈55.2m ; Y5≈25.2m
Fair Price DCF = 3.55 (EV 417.6m - Net Debt 19.2m = Equity 398.4m / Shares 112.2m; r=9.03% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 2.53 | EPS CAGR: -16.34% | SUE: -2.22 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -4.41 | Revenue CAGR: -2.37% | SUE: 2.45 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.06 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-3 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.51 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+305.2% | Growth Revenue=+20.0%