HLIT Stock Analysis: Harmonic | NASDAQ
Communication Equipment | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.110m USD | 12M Return: 2.1% | US4131601027 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 16.6M
EPS Trend: 58.3%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: -51.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.9 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
Harmonic Inc. (NASDAQ: HLIT) is a small-cap communications equipment company headquartered in San Jose, California, providing broadband access solutions to cable and telco operators worldwide. Founded in 1988 and public since 1995, the company offers software-based broadband access through its cOS platform, including virtualized cloud-native software, a range of Distributed Access Architecture (DAA) hardware such as Oyster, Ripple, and SeaStar nodes, PHY shelf products, remote PHY devices, and OLT modules. It also provides cOS Central, a subscription-based cloud service for its customers.
In addition to its product portfolio, Harmonic generates revenue from technical support and professional services-including consulting, integration, installation, system testing, and SaaS-related support-marking a hybrid business model that combines hardware sales with recurring software and service streams. Distribution occurs through a direct sales force supplemented by independent resellers and systems integrators, a common approach in the communications equipment space that allows vendors to extend reach without scaling internal sales overhead.
- Cable operator capex accelerates DOCSIS 4.0 node deployments
- cOS software and SaaS subscriptions expand recurring revenue mix
- Telco fiber buildouts boost OLT module and device demand
| Net Income: -35.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -12.89 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 44.50% < 20% (prev 26.73%; Δ 17.77% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 36.2m > Net Income -35.2m |
| Net Debt (-70.9m) to EBITDA (84.2m): -0.84 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.43 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (110.3m) vs 12m ago -2.70% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 50.62% > 18% (prev 54.42%; Δ -3.80% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 74.53% > 50% (prev 83.80%; Δ -9.27% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 26.17 > 6 (EBIT TTM 73.0m / Interest Expense TTM 2.79m) |
| A: 0.38 (Total Current Assets 379.6m - Total Current Liabilities 156.2m) / Total Assets 589.1m |
| B: -3.57 (Retained Earnings -2.10b / Total Assets 589.1m) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 73.0m / Avg Total Assets 673.8m) |
| D: 1.76 (Book Value of Equity 375.6m / Total Liabilities 213.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -6.58 = D |
| DSRI: 1.36 (Receivables 117.1m/108.9m, Revenue 502.2m/635.7m) |
| GMI: 1.08 (GM 54.42% / 50.62%) |
| AQI: 0.57 (AQ_t 0.30 / AQ_t-1 0.52) |
| SGI: 0.79 (Revenue 502.2m / 635.7m) |
| TATA: -0.12 (NI -35.2m - CFO 36.2m) / TA 589.1m) |
| Beneish M = -3.08 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 10.47 with a total of 1,107,452 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +12.46%, over one month by -0.10%, over three months by -12.75% and over the past year by +2.05%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 9.40 (which is 10.2% or 1.9 ATR below the current price).
Harmonic has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.57. Therefore, it is recommended to hold HLIT.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 15.4 | 47.4% |
P/E Trailing = 25.1951
P/E Forward = 18.8324
P/S = 2.2101
P/B = 2.8582
P/EG = 1.8405
Revenue TTM = 502.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 73.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 84.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 31.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 8.51m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 71.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 17.8m
Net Debt = -70.9m USD (calculated: Debt 71.9m - CCE 142.8m)
Enterprise Value = 1.04b USD (1.11b + Debt 71.9m - CCE 142.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 26.17 (Ebit TTM 73.0m / Interest Expense TTM 2.79m)
EV/FCF = 37.47x (Enterprise Value 1.04b / FCF TTM 27.7m)
FCF Yield = 2.67% (FCF TTM 27.7m / Enterprise Value 1.04b)
FCF Margin = 5.52% (FCF TTM 27.7m / Revenue TTM 502.2m)
Net Margin = -7.01% (Net Income TTM -35.2m / Revenue TTM 502.2m)
Gross Margin = 50.62% ((Revenue TTM 502.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 248.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.81% (prev 52.37%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.76 (Enterprise Value 1.04b / Total Assets 589.1m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.88% (Interest Expense 2.79m / Debt 71.9m)
Taxrate = 33.84% (23.8m / 70.4m)
NOPAT = 48.3m (EBIT 73.0m * (1 - 33.84%))
Current Ratio = 2.43 (Total Current Assets 379.6m / Total Current Liabilities 156.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.19 (Debt 71.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 375.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.84 (Net Debt -70.9m / EBITDA 84.2m)
Debt / FCF = -2.56 (Net Debt -70.9m / FCF TTM 27.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 368.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -5.22% (Net Income -35.2m / Total Assets 589.1m)
RoE = -9.55% (Net Income TTM -35.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 368.6m)
RoCE = 18.22% (EBIT 73.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 368.6m + L.T.Debt 31.9m))
RoIC = 11.60% (NOPAT 48.3m / Invested Capital 416.3m)
WACC = 11.36% (E(1.11b)/V(1.18b) * Re(11.93%) + D(71.9m)/V(1.18b) * Rd(3.88%) * (1-Tc(0.34)))
Discount Rate = 11.93% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -88.65 | Cagr: -1.87%
[DCF] Terminal Value 62.75% ; FCFF base≈70.0m ; Y1≈61.4m ; Y5≈49.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 5.63 (EV 534.1m - Net Debt -70.9m = Equity 605.0m / Shares 107.5m; r=11.36% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 58.30 | EPS CAGR: 64.58% | SUE: 1.70 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -51.62 | Revenue CAGR: -7.15% | SUE: 0.06 | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.59 | Chg30d=+18.78% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+255.3% | GrowthRev=+51.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.90 | Chg30d=+11.58% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+9.5% | GrowthRev=+10.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +73% (up=8, down=0)