(HLMN) Hillman Solutions - Overview
Stock: Hardware, Fasteners, Keys, Wall-Hangings, Reflectors
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 32.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.71% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.20 |
| Alpha | -10.35 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.957 |
| Beta Downside | 0.906 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 42.29% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.09 |
Description: HLMN Hillman Solutions January 14, 2026
Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN) is a U.S.-based distributor of a broad portfolio of hardware-related products, serving retail and industrial customers across North America, Latin America, and the Caribbean. The company’s catalogue spans fasteners, door hardware, garage-door components, safety accessories, wall-mounting solutions, and personal-protective equipment, marketed under more than 20 proprietary brands such as Power Pro, Hillman, and Gorilla Grip.
The firm reaches end-users through a diversified channel mix that includes hardware stores, big-box home-center chains, mass-merchant retailers, pet-supply outlets, automotive aftermarket distributors, and original-equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the industrial space. This multi-channel footprint helps mitigate concentration risk and provides exposure to both consumer-driven DIY demand and professional-grade construction projects.
According to the most recent audited filing (FY 2023), Hillman generated approximately **$1.1 billion in revenue**, with an **adjusted EBITDA of $78 million**, translating to an **EBITDA margin of roughly 7%**. The company posted a net loss of $23 million, primarily due to a goodwill impairment charge related to its recent acquisitions-a factor that analysts should treat as a non-recurring expense when assessing operating performance.
Key economic drivers for Hillman include the health of the U.S. residential-construction market (housing starts and home-improvement spending), which has been buoyed by low-interest-rate environments and a sustained DIY trend. Additionally, broader industrial activity-captured by the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing-affects demand for bulk-fastener and specialty-hardware sales to OEM customers.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you may want to explore ValueRay’s detailed financial models for HLMN.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 37.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.66 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 25.90% < 20% (prev 24.16%; Δ 1.74% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 117.4m > Net Income 37.5m |
| Net Debt (746.5m) to EBITDA (249.2m): 3.00 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.46 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (199.8m) vs 12m ago 0.41% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 48.76% > 18% (prev 0.48%; Δ 4828 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 64.10% > 50% (prev 61.35%; Δ 2.75% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.90 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 249.2m / Interest Expense TTM 58.0m) |
Altman Z'' 0.96
| A: 0.17 (Total Current Assets 671.1m - Total Current Liabilities 273.2m) / Total Assets 2.40b |
| B: -0.08 (Retained Earnings -180.2m / Total Assets 2.40b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 110.3m / Avg Total Assets 2.40b) |
| D: -0.19 (Book Value of Equity -220.2m / Total Liabilities 1.17b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.96 = BB |
Beneish M -3.01
| DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 144.9m/129.6m, Revenue 1.54b/1.47b) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 48.76% / 47.85%) |
| AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.59 / AQ_t-1 0.61) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 1.54b / 1.47b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 37.5m - CFO 117.4m) / TA 2.40b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.01 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of HLMN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +11.85%, over one month by +11.49%, over three months by +20.18% and over the past year by +3.66%.
Is HLMN a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HLMN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 12.2 | 16.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 12.2 | 16.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 11.3 | 7.6% |
HLMN Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 15.625
P/S = 1.2051
P/B = 1.5028
Revenue TTM = 1.54b USD
EBIT TTM = 110.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 249.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 683.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 33.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 784.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 746.5m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.60b USD (1.85b + Debt 784.2m - CCE 37.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.90 (Ebit TTM 110.3m / Interest Expense TTM 58.0m)
EV/FCF = 63.27x (Enterprise Value 2.60b / FCF TTM 41.1m)
FCF Yield = 1.58% (FCF TTM 41.1m / Enterprise Value 2.60b)
FCF Margin = 2.67% (FCF TTM 41.1m / Revenue TTM 1.54b)
Net Margin = 2.44% (Net Income TTM 37.5m / Revenue TTM 1.54b)
Gross Margin = 48.76% ((Revenue TTM 1.54b - Cost of Revenue TTM 787.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.67% (prev 48.28%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.08 (Enterprise Value 2.60b / Total Assets 2.40b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.87% (Interest Expense 14.7m / Debt 784.2m)
Taxrate = 25.70% (8.02m / 31.2m)
NOPAT = 82.0m (EBIT 110.3m * (1 - 25.70%))
Current Ratio = 2.46 (Total Current Assets 671.1m / Total Current Liabilities 273.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.64 (Debt 784.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.23b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.00 (Net Debt 746.5m / EBITDA 249.2m)
Debt / FCF = 18.18 (Net Debt 746.5m / FCF TTM 41.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.20b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.56% (Net Income 37.5m / Total Assets 2.40b)
RoE = 3.12% (Net Income TTM 37.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.20b)
RoCE = 5.86% (EBIT 110.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.20b + L.T.Debt 683.2m))
RoIC = 4.30% (NOPAT 82.0m / Invested Capital 1.91b)
WACC = 7.05% (E(1.85b)/V(2.64b) * Re(9.44%) + D(784.2m)/V(2.64b) * Rd(1.87%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 9.44% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 1.26%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 74.80% ; FCFF base≈76.2m ; Y1≈50.0m ; Y5≈22.8m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 538.9m - Net Debt 746.5m = -207.6m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 0.61 | EPS CAGR: -45.88% | SUE: -3.47 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 38.58 | Revenue CAGR: 5.76% | SUE: -0.12 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.11 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.60 | Chg30d=-0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+2.3% | Growth Revenue=+8.0%