(HUMA) Humacyte - Overview
Stock: Bioengineered Vessels, Acellular Implants, Vascular Grafts
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 114% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -23.4% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.81 |
| Alpha | -108.87 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.303 |
| Beta Downside | 1.223 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 90.63% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.35 |
Description: HUMA Humacyte December 29, 2025
Humacyte, Inc. (NASDAQ:HUMA) develops off-the-shelf, bioengineered human acellular vessels (HAVs) that can be implanted without triggering a foreign-body response, targeting a range of vascular indications such as arteriovenous access for hemodialysis, peripheral arterial disease, and pediatric cardiac surgery.
Key performance indicators as of the latest quarterly filing (Q3 2024) show a cash balance of roughly $95 million and a monthly cash burn of about $6 million, giving the company an estimated runway of 15-18 months absent additional financing.
The primary economic driver for Humacyte is the growing global demand for dialysis access-projected to exceed $30 billion by 2028-and the shortage of suitable autologous grafts, which creates a sizable addressable market for off-the-shelf HAVs.
Sector-wide, biotechnology firms focused on regenerative medicine are benefitting from increased R&D tax credits and a favorable regulatory environment that has accelerated FDA Breakthrough Device Designation pathways, potentially shortening time-to-market for products like HAVs.
Given the early-stage nature of Humacyte’s pipeline and its reliance on future regulatory approvals, investors should treat the stock as high-risk, high-reward and monitor milestones such as the upcoming Phase III trial results for the hemodialysis access indication.
For a deeper quantitative assessment of HUMA’s valuation dynamics, a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst toolkit may uncover additional metrics worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.5
| Net Income: -37.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -1.16 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -35.89 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 179.2% < 20% (prev 19.12%; Δ 160.1% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -1.15 > 3% & CFO -105.5m > Net Income -37.0m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 1.62 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (158.3m) vs 12m ago 32.58% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 9.92% > 18% (prev 0.18%; Δ 973.8% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 8.53% > 50% (prev 9.40%; Δ -0.87% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -2.47 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -18.9m / Interest Expense TTM 10.7m) |
Altman Z'' -15.00
| A: 0.17 (Total Current Assets 41.4m - Total Current Liabilities 25.6m) / Total Assets 91.5m |
| B: -7.67 (Retained Earnings -702.0m / Total Assets 91.5m) |
| C: -0.26 (EBIT TTM -26.3m / Avg Total Assets 103.1m) |
| D: -7.26 (Book Value of Equity -698.8m / Total Liabilities 96.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -33.22 = D |
What is the price of HUMA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.95%, over one month by -13.12%, over three months by -28.37% and over the past year by -78.03%.
Is HUMA a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HUMA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 7.7 | 720.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 7.7 | 720.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 0.7 | -29.8% |
HUMA Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 122.5669
P/B = 70.1666
Revenue TTM = 8.80m USD
EBIT TTM = -26.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = -18.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 29.8m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.67m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 29.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 10.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 202.9m USD (192.6m + Debt 29.8m - CCE 19.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -2.47 (Ebit TTM -26.3m / Interest Expense TTM 10.7m)
EV/FCF = -1.91x (Enterprise Value 202.9m / FCF TTM -106.4m)
FCF Yield = -52.44% (FCF TTM -106.4m / Enterprise Value 202.9m)
FCF Margin = -1209 % (FCF TTM -106.4m / Revenue TTM 8.80m)
Net Margin = -420.2% (Net Income TTM -37.0m / Revenue TTM 8.80m)
Gross Margin = 9.92% ((Revenue TTM 8.80m - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.93m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 65.47% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.22 (Enterprise Value 202.9m / Total Assets 91.5m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.76% (Interest Expense 2.61m / Debt 29.8m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -20.8m (EBIT -26.3m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.62 (Total Current Assets 41.4m / Total Current Liabilities 25.6m)
Debt / Equity = -6.28 (negative equity) (Debt 29.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -4.75m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.55 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 10.3m / EBITDA -18.9m)
Debt / FCF = -0.10 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 10.3m / FCF TTM -106.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -4.33m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -35.84% (Net Income -37.0m / Total Assets 91.5m)
RoE = 853.5% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM -37.0m / Total Stockholder Equity -4.33m)
RoCE = -103.2% (out of range, set to none) (EBIT -26.3m / Capital Employed (Equity -4.33m + L.T.Debt 29.8m))
RoIC = 479.8% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -20.8m / Invested Capital -4.33m)
WACC = 13.40% (E(192.6m)/V(222.4m) * Re(14.40%) + D(29.8m)/V(222.4m) * Rd(8.76%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 14.40% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 23.61%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -106.4m)
EPS Correlation: -13.50 | EPS CAGR: 13.45% | SUE: 1.12 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 21.19 | Revenue CAGR: 47.12% | SUE: -0.71 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.12 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.53 | Chg30d=+0.007 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-37.0% | Growth Revenue=+732.4%