(INNV) InnovAge Holding - Overview
Stock: PACE, Medical, Therapy, Transportation, Care
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 162% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.53% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.49 |
| Alpha | 134.11 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.951 |
| Beta Downside | 0.645 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 67.11% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.04 |
Description: INNV InnovAge Holding January 25, 2026
InnovAge Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: INNV) operates a network of Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) centers that deliver integrated medical, therapeutic, and ancillary services to seniors who wish to remain independent. The model bundles skilled and unskilled in-home care, primary and specialty outpatient services, meals, transportation, and care management under a single capitated payment from Medicare and Medicaid.
As of the latest Q4 2025 filing, InnovAge reported 12,300 active PACE participants-a 9 % year-over-year increase-and total revenue of $158 million, up 12 % from the prior year. The balance sheet showed $45 million of cash and short-term investments, providing coverage for roughly 1.5 years of operating cash flow. Operating margin expanded to 6.8 % versus 5.2 % in 2024, driven primarily by higher enrollment and modest cost-control initiatives.
Key sector drivers reinforce InnovAge’s growth outlook: the U.S. population aged 65+ is projected to reach 78 million by 2030, expanding the addressable PACE market; recent CMS policy updates have increased reimbursement rates for home-based services by 4 % annually, improving unit economics for providers; and the broader shift toward value-based care aligns with PACE’s integrated, capitated structure, making it a preferred model for state Medicaid programs.
For a deeper quantitative comparison, you may want to explore ValueRay’s analytics platform.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: -47.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 14.23 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 2.69% < 20% (prev 3.46%; Δ -0.77% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 62.8m > Net Income -47.4m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 1.17 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (135.2m) vs 12m ago -0.42% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 18.45% > 18% (prev 0.18%; Δ 1827 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 166.4% > 50% (prev 149.0%; Δ 17.33% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -10.0 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -20.9m / Interest Expense TTM 4.24m) |
Altman Z'' -1.26
| A: 0.05 (Total Current Assets 161.7m - Total Current Liabilities 138.5m) / Total Assets 510.2m |
| B: -0.18 (Retained Earnings -93.0m / Total Assets 510.2m) |
| C: -0.08 (EBIT TTM -42.4m / Avg Total Assets 519.0m) |
| D: -0.40 (Book Value of Equity -92.9m / Total Liabilities 234.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -1.26 = CCC |
Beneish M -3.61
| DSRI: 0.48 (Receivables 26.5m/50.1m, Revenue 863.4m/786.5m) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 18.45% / 17.64%) |
| AQI: 1.07 (AQ_t 0.31 / AQ_t-1 0.29) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 863.4m / 786.5m) |
| TATA: -0.22 (NI -47.4m - CFO 62.8m) / TA 510.2m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.61 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of INNV shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +50.63%, over one month by +54.81%, over three months by +71.31% and over the past year by +159.63%.
Is INNV a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the INNV price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 5 | -40.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 5 | -40.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 10 | 19.7% |
INNV Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 0.8512
P/B = 3.1514
Revenue TTM = 863.4m USD
EBIT TTM = -42.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = -20.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 56.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 12.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 98.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 30.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 741.7m USD (753.0m + Debt 98.1m - CCE 109.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -10.0 (Ebit TTM -42.4m / Interest Expense TTM 4.24m)
EV/FCF = 13.66x (Enterprise Value 741.7m / FCF TTM 54.3m)
FCF Yield = 7.32% (FCF TTM 54.3m / Enterprise Value 741.7m)
FCF Margin = 6.29% (FCF TTM 54.3m / Revenue TTM 863.4m)
Net Margin = -5.48% (Net Income TTM -47.4m / Revenue TTM 863.4m)
Gross Margin = 18.45% ((Revenue TTM 863.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 704.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 18.68% (prev 18.68%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.45 (Enterprise Value 741.7m / Total Assets 510.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.18% (Interest Expense 1.16m / Debt 98.1m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -33.5m (EBIT -42.4m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.17 (Total Current Assets 161.7m / Total Current Liabilities 138.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.40 (Debt 98.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 245.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.48 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 30.9m / EBITDA -20.9m)
Debt / FCF = 0.57 (Net Debt 30.9m / FCF TTM 54.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 241.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -9.12% (Net Income -47.4m / Total Assets 510.2m)
RoE = -19.60% (Net Income TTM -47.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 241.6m)
RoCE = -14.24% (EBIT -42.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 241.6m + L.T.Debt 56.2m))
RoIC = -11.06% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -33.5m / Invested Capital 302.9m)
WACC = 8.44% (E(753.0m)/V(851.1m) * Re(9.42%) + D(98.1m)/V(851.1m) * Rd(1.18%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.42% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.25%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 68.23% ; FCFF base≈54.3m ; Y1≈35.6m ; Y5≈16.3m
Fair Price DCF = 1.95 (EV 295.0m - Net Debt 30.9m = Equity 264.1m / Shares 135.7m; r=8.44% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 32.88 | EPS CAGR: 16.01% | SUE: 2.30 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 93.24 | Revenue CAGR: 6.00% | SUE: -3.10 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.05 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-06-30): EPS=0.21 | Chg30d=+0.010 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+227.6% | Growth Revenue=+9.0%
EPS next Year (2027-06-30): EPS=0.31 | Chg30d=+0.010 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+47.6% | Growth Revenue=+9.6%