(IRON) Disc Medicine - Overview
Stock: Bitopertin, DISC-0974, DISC-3405, DISC-0998
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 53.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.79% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.85 |
| Alpha | 24.17 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.218 |
| Beta Downside | 1.197 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 64.79% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.76 |
Description: IRON Disc Medicine January 13, 2026
Disc Medicine, Inc. (NASDAQ: IRON) is a clinical-stage biotech focused on hematologic disorders in the United States, targeting the core biology of red-cell production-specifically heme biosynthesis and iron homeostasis. Its lead assets include bitopertin for erythropoietic porphyrias (e.g., erythropoietic protoporphyria, X-linked protoporphyria, Diamond-Blackfan anemia), DISC-0974 for anemia of myelofibrosis and chronic kidney disease, and DISC-3405 for polycythemia vera, with a preclinical candidate (DISC-0998) aimed at inflammation-related anemia.
Key quantitative signals (as of the most recent 10-Q) show a cash balance of roughly $55 million, giving the company an estimated 12-month runway at current burn rates, and a market capitalization near $210 million. The anemia therapeutics market is projected to exceed $10 billion by 2028, while biotech R&D spending is rising at ~6 % CAGR, providing a favorable macro backdrop for companies that can advance to late-stage trials. DISC-0974 recently entered a Phase 2b study, and bitopertin has received Fast Track designation from the FDA, both of which could materially de-risk the pipeline if data are positive.
For a deeper dive into IRON’s valuation metrics, ValueRay offers a concise analyst toolkit that can help you assess the upside potential.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.0
| Net Income: -181.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.26 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -9.33 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: error (cannot be calculated; needs Current Assets/Liabilities and Revenue current+prev) |
| CFO/TA -0.26 > 3% & CFO -164.7m > Net Income -181.1m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 23.45 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (35.2m) vs 12m ago 17.51% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 1.40% > 50% (prev 0.0%; Δ 1.40% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -49.12 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -161.7m / Interest Expense TTM 3.30m) |
Altman Z'' -6.27
| A: 0.95 (Total Current Assets 627.2m - Total Current Liabilities 26.7m) / Total Assets 630.5m |
| B: -0.71 (Retained Earnings -449.7m / Total Assets 630.5m) |
| C: -0.29 (EBIT TTM -161.9m / Avg Total Assets 562.8m) |
| D: -7.87 (Book Value of Equity -448.9m / Total Liabilities 57.1m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -6.27 = D |
What is the price of IRON shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.10%, over one month by +3.05%, over three months by -8.37% and over the past year by +41.62%.
Is IRON a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the IRON price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 122.1 | 53.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 122.1 | 53.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 80.1 | 0.5% |
IRON Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
Revenue TTM = 7.91m USD
EBIT TTM = -161.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = -161.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 28.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 656.0k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 31.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -109.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.33b USD (2.92b + Debt 31.0m - CCE 615.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -49.12 (Ebit TTM -161.9m / Interest Expense TTM 3.30m)
EV/FCF = -14.06x (Enterprise Value 2.33b / FCF TTM -166.0m)
FCF Yield = -7.11% (FCF TTM -166.0m / Enterprise Value 2.33b)
FCF Margin = -2100 % (FCF TTM -166.0m / Revenue TTM 7.91m)
Net Margin = -2291 % (Net Income TTM -181.1m / Revenue TTM 7.91m)
Gross Margin = 97.46% ((Revenue TTM 7.91m - Cost of Revenue TTM 201.0k) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 98.90% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.70 (Enterprise Value 2.33b / Total Assets 630.5m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.96% (Interest Expense 917.0k / Debt 31.0m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -127.9m (EBIT -161.9m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 23.45 (Total Current Assets 627.2m / Total Current Liabilities 26.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.05 (Debt 31.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 573.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.68 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -109.7m / EBITDA -161.7m)
Debt / FCF = 0.66 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -109.7m / FCF TTM -166.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 572.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -32.18% (Net Income -181.1m / Total Assets 630.5m)
RoE = -31.61% (Net Income TTM -181.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 572.9m)
RoCE = -26.90% (EBIT -161.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 572.9m + L.T.Debt 28.9m))
RoIC = -21.27% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -127.9m / Invested Capital 601.5m)
WACC = 10.33% (E(2.92b)/V(2.95b) * Re(10.41%) + D(31.0m)/V(2.95b) * Rd(2.96%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.41% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 22.19%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -166.0m)
EPS Correlation: 24.16 | EPS CAGR: 158.4% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 42.01 | Revenue CAGR: 89.54% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-1.84 | Chg30d=-0.022 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-6.61 | Chg30d=+0.162 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=-10.9% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%