KDP Stock Analysis: Keurig Dr Pepper | NASDAQ
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 42.036m USD | 12M Return: 26.8% | US49271V1008 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 336M
EPS Trend: 98.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 84.9%
Qual. Beats: 4
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) is a major North American beverage company that owns, manufactures, and distributes branded beverages and single-serve brewing systems across the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: U.S. Refreshment Beverages, U.S. Coffee, and International. Its portfolio spans concentrates, syrups, and finished beverages, as well as K-Cup pods, single-serve brewers, specialty coffee, and ready-to-drink coffee products.
KDP markets an extensive brand portfolio including Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, Motts, Snapple, 7UP, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Hawaiian Punch, Sunkist, Squirt, Vita Coco, Evian, Folgers, Celestial Seasonings, Bigelow, Swiss Miss, and licensed partner brands such as Starbucks, Dunkin, Tim Hortons, and Peets. Products are sold through supermarkets, mass merchandisers, club stores, e-commerce retailers, office superstores, vending machines, convenience stores, and directly to consumers via Keurig.com. The company was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Frisco, Texas.
Operating in the Consumer Staples sector (Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages), KDP benefits from the typically defensive, recession-resistant demand profile characteristic of essential consumer goods. Its business model combines a razor-and-blade structure-where Keurig brewers drive recurring sales of higher-margin K-Cup pods-with a diversified portfolio of owned and licensed beverage brands across multiple price points and categories.
- U.S. Coffee segment sales driven by K-Cup pod pricing and brewer demand
- C4 Energy and GHOST fuel U.S. Refreshment Beverages growth
- Electrolit and Vita Coco acquisitions expand international hydration exposure
| Net Income: 1.43b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.67 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -51.16% < 20% (prev -16.59%; Δ -34.57% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 2.53b > Net Income 1.43b |
| Net Debt (34.6b) to EBITDA (4.30b): 8.05 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.48 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.36b) vs 12m ago 0.12% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 49.39% > 18% (prev 54.93%; Δ -5.54% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 28.30% > 50% (prev 28.99%; Δ -0.69% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.89 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.01b / Interest Expense TTM 1.04b) |
| A: -0.12 (Total Current Assets 9.46b - Total Current Liabilities 19.7b) / Total Assets 87.6b |
| B: 0.06 (Retained Earnings 5.33b / Total Assets 87.6b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 3.01b / Avg Total Assets 71.0b) |
| D: 0.43 (Book Value of Equity 25.0b / Total Liabilities 58.4b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.16 = B |
| DSRI: 1.10 (Receivables 2.42b/1.73b, Revenue 20.1b/15.8b) |
| GMI: 1.11 (GM 54.93% / 49.39%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.82 / AQ_t-1 0.84) |
| SGI: 1.27 (Revenue 20.1b / 15.8b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 1.43b - CFO 2.53b) / TA 87.6b) |
| Beneish M = -2.67 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 31.76 with a total of 8,605,185 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.58%, over one month by -0.28%, over three months by +4.13% and over the past year by +26.78%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 30.60 (which is 3.7% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Keurig Dr Pepper has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.17. Therefore, it is recommended to buy KDP.
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 36.2 | 14% |
P/E Trailing = 31.202
P/E Forward = 12.4533
P/S = 2.0924
P/B = 1.7266
P/EG = 0.9807
Revenue TTM = 20.1b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.01b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.30b USD
Long Term Debt = 21.6b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 8.39b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 36.1b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.73b
Net Debt = 34.6b USD (calculated: Debt 36.1b - CCE 1.52b)
Enterprise Value = 76.7b USD (42.0b + Debt 36.1b - CCE 1.52b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.89 (Ebit TTM 3.01b / Interest Expense TTM 1.04b)
EV/FCF = 38.87x (Enterprise Value 76.7b / FCF TTM 1.97b)
FCF Yield = 2.57% (FCF TTM 1.97b / Enterprise Value 76.7b)
FCF Margin = 9.82% (FCF TTM 1.97b / Revenue TTM 20.1b)
Net Margin = 7.10% (Net Income TTM 1.43b / Revenue TTM 20.1b)
Gross Margin = 49.39% ((Revenue TTM 20.1b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.2b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 41.95% (prev 52.77%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.87 (Enterprise Value 76.7b / Total Assets 87.6b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.89% (Interest Expense 1.04b / Debt 36.1b)
Taxrate = 24.15% (476.0m / 1.97b)
NOPAT = 2.29b (EBIT 3.01b * (1 - 24.15%))
Current Ratio = 0.48 (Total Current Assets 9.46b / Total Current Liabilities 19.7b)
Debt / Equity = 1.44 (Debt 36.1b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 25.0b)
Debt / EBITDA = 8.05 (Net Debt 34.6b / EBITDA 4.30b)
Debt / FCF = 17.55 (Net Debt 34.6b / FCF TTM 1.97b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 25.3b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.01% (Net Income 1.43b / Total Assets 87.6b)
RoE = 5.64% (Net Income TTM 1.43b / Total Stockholder Equity 25.3b)
RoCE = 6.43% (EBIT 3.01b / Capital Employed (Equity 25.3b + L.T.Debt 21.6b))
RoIC = 3.04% (NOPAT 2.29b / Invested Capital 75.3b)
WACC = 4.14% (E(42.0b)/V(78.2b) * Re(5.81%) + D(36.1b)/V(78.2b) * Rd(2.89%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 5.81% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -46.76 | Cagr: -0.75%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈1.82b ; Y1≈2.08b ; Y5≈3.07b
[DCF] Fair Price = 8.50 (EV 46.2b - Net Debt 34.6b = Equity 11.6b / Shares 1.36b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 98.25 | EPS CAGR: 6.61% | SUE: 0.84 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 84.89 | Revenue CAGR: 8.51% | SUE: 1.05 | # QB: 4
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.62 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-62% | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.29 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+31% | GrowthEPS=+11.9% | GrowthRev=+58.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.53 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+35% | GrowthEPS=+10.5% | GrowthRev=+13.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +5% (up=18, down=16)