KDP Stock Analysis: Keurig Dr Pepper | NASDAQ
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 42.844m USD | 12M Return: -2.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 553M
EPS Trend: 98.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 96.6%
Qual. Beats: 3
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (NASDAQ: KDP) is a U.S.-based non-alcoholic beverage company that manufactures, owns, and distributes beverages and single-serve brewing systems across three reporting segments: U.S. Refreshment Beverages, U.S. Coffee, and International. Its product mix spans branded concentrates, syrup, finished beverages, K-Cup pods, single-serve brewers, specialty coffee, and ready-to-drink coffee, supported by an extensive brand portfolio that includes Dr Pepper, Snapple, 7UP, Canada Dry, Motts, Hawaiian Punch, A&W, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, and licensed or partner names such as Starbucks, Dunkin, McCafé, and Peets.
The company distributes through supermarkets, mass merchandisers, club stores, convenience stores, drug stores, vending, foodservice, and e-commerce channels, and sells directly to consumers via Keurig.com. KDP was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Frisco, Texas.
The business operates within the GICS Consumer Staples sector (Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages), a defensive category that historically benefits from relatively stable demand through economic cycles. KDPs model is hybrid in nature, combining traditional beverage manufacturing and distribution with a razor-and-blade-style coffee segment, where sales of Keurig brewers support recurring K-Cup pod consumption.
- Coffee bean inflation pressures U.S. Coffee segment margins
- C4 Energy and Electrolit accelerate refreshment beverage growth
- GLP-1 weight loss drugs threaten overall beverage consumption volumes
| Net Income: 1.83b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.17 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 77.35% < 20% (prev -31.09%; Δ 108.4% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 2.06b > Net Income 1.83b |
| Net Debt (26.5b) to EBITDA (4.05b): 6.56 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.31 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.36b) vs 12m ago 0.11% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 53.78% > 18% (prev 55.25%; Δ -1.47% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 26.72% > 50% (prev 28.90%; Δ -2.18% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.68 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.27b / Interest Expense TTM 889.0m) |
| A: 0.18 (Total Current Assets 23.1b - Total Current Liabilities 10.0b) / Total Assets 73.1b |
| B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 5.58b / Total Assets 73.1b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 3.27b / Avg Total Assets 63.4b) |
| D: 0.57 (Book Value of Equity 25.3b / Total Liabilities 44.0b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.37 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.90 (Receivables 1.54b/1.56b, Revenue 16.9b/15.5b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 55.25% / 53.78%) |
| AQI: 0.75 (AQ_t 0.64 / AQ_t-1 0.85) |
| SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 16.9b / 15.5b) |
| TATA: -0.00 (NI 1.83b - CFO 2.06b) / TA 73.1b) |
| Beneish M = -3.16 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 31.67 with a total of 7,763,900 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.89%, over one month by +0.62%, over three months by +20.04% and over the past year by -2.72%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 29.10 (which is 8.1% or 2.9 ATR below the current price).
Keurig Dr Pepper has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.10. Therefore, it is recommended to buy KDP.
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 34.1 | 7.5% |
P/E Trailing = 23.5
P/E Forward = 14.4718
P/S = 2.5286
P/B = 1.7935
P/EG = 1.1137
Revenue TTM = 16.9b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.27b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.05b USD
Long Term Debt = 20.9b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.82b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 27.4b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.73b
Net Debt = 26.5b USD (calculated: Debt 27.4b - CCE 898.0m)
Enterprise Value = 69.4b USD (42.8b + Debt 27.4b - CCE 898.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.68 (Ebit TTM 3.27b / Interest Expense TTM 889.0m)
EV/FCF = 43.89x (Enterprise Value 69.4b / FCF TTM 1.58b)
FCF Yield = 2.28% (FCF TTM 1.58b / Enterprise Value 69.4b)
FCF Margin = 9.33% (FCF TTM 1.58b / Revenue TTM 16.9b)
Net Margin = 10.81% (Net Income TTM 1.83b / Revenue TTM 16.9b)
Gross Margin = 53.78% ((Revenue TTM 16.9b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.83b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 52.77% (prev 53.77%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.95 (Enterprise Value 69.4b / Total Assets 73.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.24% (Interest Expense 889.0m / Debt 27.4b)
Taxrate = 23.15% (552.0m / 2.38b)
NOPAT = 2.52b (EBIT 3.27b * (1 - 23.15%))
Current Ratio = 2.31 (Total Current Assets 23.1b / Total Current Liabilities 10.0b)
Debt / Equity = 1.09 (Debt 27.4b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 25.3b)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.56 (Net Debt 26.5b / EBITDA 4.05b)
Debt / FCF = 16.79 (Net Debt 26.5b / FCF TTM 1.58b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 25.3b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.89% (Net Income 1.83b / Total Assets 73.1b)
RoE = 7.25% (Net Income TTM 1.83b / Total Stockholder Equity 25.3b)
RoCE = 7.09% (EBIT 3.27b / Capital Employed (Equity 25.3b + L.T.Debt 20.9b))
RoIC = 3.75% (NOPAT 2.52b / Invested Capital 67.1b)
WACC = 4.73% (E(42.8b)/V(70.3b) * Re(6.17%) + D(27.4b)/V(70.3b) * Rd(3.24%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 6.17% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -4.49 | Cagr: -1.20%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.68% ; FCFF base≈1.66b ; Y1≈1.51b ; Y5≈1.30b
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 20.7b - Net Debt 26.5b = -5.87b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 98.30 | EPS CAGR: 6.86% | SUE: 0.82 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.65 | Revenue CAGR: 5.33% | SUE: 1.92 | # QB: 3
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.54 | Chg30d=+0.82% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=14
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.63 | Chg30d=-0.27% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=14
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.29 | Chg30d=+0.08% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+11.6% | GrowthRev=+58.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.53 | Chg30d=+0.08% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+10.5% | GrowthRev=+13.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=2, down=2)