KDP Stock Analysis: Keurig Dr Pepper | NASDAQ

Soft Drinks, Coffee, Bottled Water, Energy Drinks

Total Rating 37

Safety 57

Buy Signal -0.11

Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
Industry Rotation: -0.8

Market Cap: 40.2B
Avg Turnover: 378M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility31.1%

VaR 5^th Pctl5.24%

VaR vs Median2.47%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio-0.20

Rel. Str. IBD39.1

Rel. Str. Peer Group31.8

Character TTM

Beta-0.063

Beta Downside-0.024

Hurst Exponent0.480

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD30.99%

CAGR/Max DD0.02

CAGR/Mean DD0.05

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 6.61%
EPS Trend: 98.2%

Last SUE: 0.84
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 8.51%
Rev. Trend: 84.9%

Last SUE: 1.05
Qual. Beats: 4

Warnings

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan -0.5% 8

Feb -1.9% 33

Mar +2.4% 19

Apr +0.7% 15

May -0.1% 7

Jun +1.6% 9

Jul +0.8% 26

Aug -2.6% 38

Sep -3.4% 56

Oct +0.9% 2

Nov +2.2% 12

Dec +2.2% 0

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: KDP Keurig Dr Pepper

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (NASDAQ: KDP) is a U.S.-based non-alcoholic beverage company that manufactures, owns, and distributes beverages and single-serve brewing systems across three reporting segments: U.S. Refreshment Beverages, U.S. Coffee, and International. Its product mix spans branded concentrates, syrup, finished beverages, K-Cup pods, single-serve brewers, specialty coffee, and ready-to-drink coffee, supported by an extensive brand portfolio that includes Dr Pepper, Snapple, 7UP, Canada Dry, Motts, Hawaiian Punch, A&W, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, and licensed or partner names such as Starbucks, Dunkin, McCafé, and Peets.

The company distributes through supermarkets, mass merchandisers, club stores, convenience stores, drug stores, vending, foodservice, and e-commerce channels, and sells directly to consumers via Keurig.com. KDP was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Frisco, Texas.

The business operates within the GICS Consumer Staples sector (Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages), a defensive category that historically benefits from relatively stable demand through economic cycles. KDPs model is hybrid in nature, combining traditional beverage manufacturing and distribution with a razor-and-blade-style coffee segment, where sales of Keurig brewers support recurring K-Cup pod consumption.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Coffee bean inflation pressures U.S. Coffee segment margins
C4 Energy and Electrolit accelerate refreshment beverage growth
GLP-1 weight loss drugs threaten overall beverage consumption volumes

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.5

Net Income: 1.43b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.67 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -51.16% < 20% (prev -16.59%; Δ -34.57% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 2.53b > Net Income 1.43b
Net Debt (34.6b) to EBITDA (4.13b): 8.38 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.48 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.36b) vs 12m ago 0.12% < -2%
Gross Margin: 49.39% > 18% (prev 54.93%; Δ -5.54% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 28.30% > 50% (prev 28.99%; Δ -0.69% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.24 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.38b / Interest Expense TTM 1.04b)

Altman Z'' 0.20

A: -0.12 (Total Current Assets 9.46b - Total Current Liabilities 19.7b) / Total Assets 87.6b
B: 0.06 (Retained Earnings 5.33b / Total Assets 87.6b)
C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 3.38b / Avg Total Assets 71.0b)
D: 0.43 (Book Value of Equity 25.0b / Total Liabilities 58.4b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.20 = B

Beneish M -2.67

DSRI: 1.10 (Receivables 2.42b/1.73b, Revenue 20.1b/15.8b)
GMI: 1.11 (GM 54.93% / 49.39%)
AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.82 / AQ_t-1 0.84)
SGI: 1.27 (Revenue 20.1b / 15.8b)
TATA: -0.01 (NI 1.43b - CFO 2.53b) / TA 87.6b)
Beneish M = -2.67 (Cap -4..+1) = A

What is the price of KDP shares?

As of August 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 31.44 with a total of 12,051,556 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.77%, over one month by +3.90%, over three months by +8.81% and over the past year by -6.16%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 29.00 (which is 7.8% or 2.4 ATR below the current price).

Is KDP a buy, sell or hold?

Keurig Dr Pepper has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.10. Therefore, it is recommended to buy KDP.

StrongBuy: 9
Buy: 5
Hold: 7
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the KDP price?

Analysts Target Price	35.7	13.6%

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 14 August 2026

Market Cap USD = 40.2b (40.2b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 29.56
P/E Forward = 12.7389
P/S = 2.0023
P/B = 1.5928
P/EG = 0.9799
Revenue TTM = 20.1b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.38b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.13b USD
Long Term Debt = 13.0b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 8.39b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 36.1b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.73b
Net Debt = 34.6b USD (calculated: Debt 36.1b - CCE 1.52b)
Enterprise Value = 74.8b USD (40.2b + Debt 36.1b - CCE 1.52b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.24 (Ebit TTM 3.38b / Interest Expense TTM 1.04b)
EV/FCF = 37.95x (Enterprise Value 74.8b / FCF TTM 1.97b)
FCF Yield = 2.63% (FCF TTM 1.97b / Enterprise Value 74.8b)
FCF Margin = 9.82% (FCF TTM 1.97b / Revenue TTM 20.1b)
Net Margin = 7.10% (Net Income TTM 1.43b / Revenue TTM 20.1b)
Gross Margin = 49.39% ((Revenue TTM 20.1b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.2b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 41.95% (prev 52.77%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.85 (Enterprise Value 74.8b / Total Assets 87.6b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.89% (Interest Expense 1.04b / Debt 36.1b)
Taxrate = 24.15% (476.0m / 1.97b)
NOPAT = 2.56b (EBIT 3.38b * (1 - 24.15%))
Current Ratio = 0.48 (Total Current Assets 9.46b / Total Current Liabilities 19.7b)
Debt / Equity = 1.44 (Debt 36.1b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 25.0b)
Debt / EBITDA = 8.38 (Net Debt 34.6b / EBITDA 4.13b)
Debt / FCF = 17.55 (Net Debt 34.6b / FCF TTM 1.97b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 25.3b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.01% (Net Income 1.43b / Total Assets 87.6b)
RoE = 5.64% (Net Income TTM 1.43b / Total Stockholder Equity 25.3b)
RoCE = 8.82% (EBIT 3.38b / Capital Employed (Equity 25.3b + L.T.Debt 13.0b))
RoIC = 3.41% (NOPAT 2.56b / Invested Capital 75.3b)
WACC = 4.07% (E(40.2b)/V(76.4b) * Re(5.76%) + D(36.1b)/V(76.4b) * Rd(2.89%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 5.76% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -46.76 | Cagr: -0.75%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈1.82b ; Y1≈2.08b ; Y5≈3.07b
[DCF] Fair Price = 8.50 (EV 46.2b - Net Debt 34.6b = Equity 11.6b / Shares 1.36b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 98.25 | EPS CAGR: 6.61% | SUE: 0.84 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 84.89 | Revenue CAGR: 8.51% | SUE: 1.05 | # QB: 4
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.62 | Chg30d=-2.00% | Revisions=+38% | Analysts=13
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.29 | Chg30d=+0.30% | Revisions=+22% | GrowthEPS=+11.9% | GrowthRev=+58.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.54 | Chg30d=+0.36% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+10.5% | GrowthRev=+13.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +25% (up=11, down=6)