(KDP) Keurig Dr Pepper - Ratings and Ratios
Coffee, Pods, Soda, Juice, Water
KDP EPS (Earnings per Share)
KDP Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 28.0% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 44.8% |
| Reward | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.70 |
| Alpha Jensen | -24.04 |
| Character | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.371 |
| Beta | 0.362 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 30.99% |
| Mean DD | 12.62% |
Description: KDP Keurig Dr Pepper September 29, 2025
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (NASDAQ: KDP) is a U.S.–based beverage and single-serve coffee systems company that operates through three reporting segments: U.S. Refreshment Beverages, U.S. Coffee, and International. The firm manufactures and distributes a broad portfolio of branded concentrates, syrups, finished drinks, and K-Cup® pods, serving both its own brands (e.g., Dr Pepper, Snapple, Green Mountain Coffee) and licensed partners such as Starbucks, Dunkin’ and McCafé. Sales channels span supermarkets, mass merchandisers, club stores, e-commerce platforms, food-service accounts, and direct-to-consumer via Keurig.com.
Key performance indicators from the most recent FY 2024 filing show net sales of $13.2 billion, a 5.1 % year-over-year increase driven primarily by a 9 % rise in the U.S. Coffee segment, while the International segment grew 3 % on a constant-currency basis. Adjusted EBITDA margin held at 18.4 %, reflecting stable pricing power despite modest raw-material cost inflation. The company’s free cash flow generation was $1.5 billion, supporting a dividend yield of roughly 2.8 % and a share-repurchase program of $500 million.
Sector-level drivers that materially affect KDP’s outlook include: (1) the ongoing shift toward “better-for-you” beverages, which is boosting demand for low-sugar and functional drinks such as C4 Energy and Core Hydration; (2) the resilience of the single-serve coffee market, where U.S. coffee consumption per capita is projected to grow ~2 % annually through 2027, underpinning the growth of K-Cup sales; and (3) macro-economic pressure on discretionary spending, which can compress volume in the carbonated soft-drink category but is partially offset by price-elastic premium offerings.
Given the blend of brand depth, diversified distribution, and exposure to both traditional and emerging beverage trends, a deeper quantitative model of KDP’s cash-flow sensitivity to raw-material pricing and consumer-taste shifts would be valuable-consider exploring the detailed scenario analysis available on ValueRay for a more granular view.
KDP Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 35,269m |
| Sub-Industry | Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages |
| IPO / Inception | 1993-09-21 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -28.3% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.10 of 5 |
KDP Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.42% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.53% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 9.89% |
| Payout Consistency | 91.4% |
| Payout Ratio | 45.3% |
KDP Growth Ratios
| CAGR | -7.44% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | -0.24 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | -0.59 |
| Current Volume | 11838.5k |
| Average Volume | 17000.8k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income (1.58b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 970.4m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.03 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.98pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -17.47% (prev -23.75%; Δ 6.27pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.12b > Net Income 1.58b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (17.01b) to EBITDA (3.20b) ratio: 5.32 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.62 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (1.36b) change vs 12m ago 0.07% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 54.76% (prev 55.69%; Δ -0.93pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 30.14% (prev 28.73%; Δ 1.41pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 3.72 (EBITDA TTM 3.20b / Interest Expense TTM 662.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.50
| (A) -0.05 = (Total Current Assets 4.70b - Total Current Liabilities 7.53b) / Total Assets 54.60b |
| (B) 0.10 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 5.58b / Total Assets 54.60b |
| (C) 0.05 = EBIT TTM 2.46b / Avg Total Assets 53.66b |
| (D) 0.19 = Book Value of Equity 5.57b / Total Liabilities 29.28b |
| Total Rating: 0.50 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 58.37
| 1. Piotroski 3.0pt = -2.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.04% = 1.52 |
| 3. FCF Margin 9.82% = 2.46 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.69 = 2.27 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 5.32 = -2.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -0.44)% = -0.55 |
| 7. RoE 6.39% = 0.53 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 62.00% = 4.65 |
| 9. EPS Trend 39.89% = 1.99 |
What is the price of KDP shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.67%, over one month by +1.82%, over three months by -22.03% and over the past year by -16.86%.
Is Keurig Dr Pepper a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of KDP is around 25.57 USD . This means that KDP is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -4.94%.
Is KDP a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 9
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the KDP price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 35.4 | 31.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 35.4 | 31.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 27.7 | 2.8% |
KDP Fundamental Data Overview November 10, 2025
P/E Trailing = 22.3793
P/E Forward = 11.7647
P/S = 2.1806
P/B = 1.3995
P/EG = 0.6326
Beta = 0.362
Revenue TTM = 16.17b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.46b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.20b USD
Long Term Debt = 12.91b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 2.60b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 17.58b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 17.01b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 52.33b USD (35.27b + Debt 17.58b - CCE 516.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.72 (Ebit TTM 2.46b / Interest Expense TTM 662.0m)
FCF Yield = 3.04% (FCF TTM 1.59b / Enterprise Value 52.33b)
FCF Margin = 9.82% (FCF TTM 1.59b / Revenue TTM 16.17b)
Net Margin = 9.78% (Net Income TTM 1.58b / Revenue TTM 16.17b)
Gross Margin = 54.76% ((Revenue TTM 16.17b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.32b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 54.34% (prev 54.17%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.96 (Enterprise Value 52.33b / Total Assets 54.60b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.07% (Interest Expense 188.0m / Debt 17.58b)
Taxrate = 22.30% (190.0m / 852.0m)
NOPAT = 1.91b (EBIT 2.46b * (1 - 22.30%))
Current Ratio = 0.62 (Total Current Assets 4.70b / Total Current Liabilities 7.53b)
Debt / Equity = 0.69 (Debt 17.58b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 25.32b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.32 (Net Debt 17.01b / EBITDA 3.20b)
Debt / FCF = 10.71 (Net Debt 17.01b / FCF TTM 1.59b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 24.75b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.90% (Net Income 1.58b / Total Assets 54.60b)
RoE = 6.39% (Net Income TTM 1.58b / Total Stockholder Equity 24.75b)
RoCE = 6.54% (EBIT 2.46b / Capital Employed (Equity 24.75b + L.T.Debt 12.91b))
RoIC = 4.74% (NOPAT 1.91b / Invested Capital 40.35b)
WACC = 5.18% (E(35.27b)/V(52.85b) * Re(7.35%) + D(17.58b)/V(52.85b) * Rd(1.07%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 7.35% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.38%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 74.70% ; FCFE base≈1.36b ; Y1≈1.10b ; Y5≈754.6m
Fair Price DCF = 10.30 (DCF Value 13.99b / Shares Outstanding 1.36b; 5y FCF grow -23.32% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 39.89 | EPS CAGR: 2.84% | SUE: 0.10 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 62.00 | Revenue CAGR: 4.62% | SUE: 3.40 | # QB: 1
Additional Sources for KDP Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle