(KRYS) Krystal Biotech - Overview
Stock: Gene Therapy, Rare Skin Diseases, Dermatology, Clinical Trials
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 43.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -3.71% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.27 |
| Alpha | 53.74 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.823 |
| Beta Downside | 0.685 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 42.26% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.24 |
Description: KRYS Krystal Biotech January 10, 2026
Krystal Biotech (NASDAQ:KRYS) is a commercial-stage biotech focused on gene-based medicines for rare, high-unmet-need disorders in the U.S. Its only marketed product, VYJUVEK (beremagene geperpavec-svdt, B-VEC), received FDA approval in late 2023 for dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa (DEB), marking the first gene-therapy for this skin-fragility disease.
Beyond B-VEC, the pipeline spans seven pre-clinical/clinical programs: KB105 (Phase 1/2 for autosomal-recessive congenital ichthyosis), KB104 (netherton syndrome), KB407 (Phase 1 for cystic fibrosis), KB707 (Phase 1/2 for anti-PD-1-relapsed/refractory cancers), KB408 (Phase 1 for alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency), KB301 (Phase 2 for aesthetic skin conditions), and an open-label ophthalmic B-VEC study for DEB-related eye complications.
Key financial metrics (FY 2023): market capitalization ≈ $300 M, cash and equivalents ≈ $120 M, giving a runway of roughly 12-18 months at current burn (~$70 M R&D spend). The company’s revenue is still nascent-primarily from B-VEC sales-so earnings are negative, but the high-margin nature of gene-therapy pricing (average $500 k-$1 M per patient) offers upside if adoption scales.
Sector-level drivers reinforce Krystal’s outlook: the global gene-therapy market is projected to grow at a CAGR of ~15 % through 2030, fueled by FDA’s accelerated-approval pathways and expanding payer coverage for orphan drugs. However, execution risk remains high-clinical setbacks, manufacturing scale-up, or reimbursement delays could materially affect valuation.
For a deeper quantitative view of KRYS’s risk-adjusted upside, you might explore ValueRay’s analyst dashboard for the latest metrics and scenario analysis.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 198.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 7.44 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 223.6% < 20% (prev 258.2%; Δ -34.62% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 176.2m > Net Income 198.9m |
| Net Debt (-383.1m) to EBITDA (171.2m): -2.24 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 10.14 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (29.8m) vs 12m ago -0.23% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 93.89% > 18% (prev 0.92%; Δ 9297 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 33.58% > 50% (prev 24.59%; Δ 9.00% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -7.45 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 171.2m / Interest Expense TTM -22.1m) |
Altman Z'' 5.07
| A: 0.67 (Total Current Assets 925.6m - Total Current Liabilities 91.3m) / Total Assets 1.24b |
| B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -27.2m / Total Assets 1.24b) |
| C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 164.8m / Avg Total Assets 1.11b) |
| D: -0.26 (Book Value of Equity -26.1m / Total Liabilities 102.2m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 5.07 = AAA |
Beneish M -2.64
| DSRI: 0.86 (Receivables 129.6m/97.3m, Revenue 373.2m/241.5m) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 93.89% / 91.93%) |
| AQI: 1.18 (AQ_t 0.13 / AQ_t-1 0.11) |
| SGI: 1.55 (Revenue 373.2m / 241.5m) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 198.9m - CFO 176.2m) / TA 1.24b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.64 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of KRYS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.19%, over one month by +9.37%, over three months by +33.90% and over the past year by +64.76%.
Is KRYS a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the KRYS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 276.6 | 3.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 276.6 | 3.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 387 | 44.6% |
KRYS Fundamental Data Overview January 31, 2026
P/E Forward = 37.7358
P/S = 21.7067
P/B = 7.1329
Revenue TTM = 373.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 164.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 171.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 9.51m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.70m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 9.51m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -383.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 7.38b USD (8.10b + Debt 9.51m - CCE 731.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -7.45 (Ebit TTM 164.8m / Interest Expense TTM -22.1m)
EV/FCF = 44.56x (Enterprise Value 7.38b / FCF TTM 165.6m)
FCF Yield = 2.24% (FCF TTM 165.6m / Enterprise Value 7.38b)
FCF Margin = 44.37% (FCF TTM 165.6m / Revenue TTM 373.2m)
Net Margin = 53.30% (Net Income TTM 198.9m / Revenue TTM 373.2m)
Gross Margin = 93.89% ((Revenue TTM 373.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 22.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 94.21% (prev 92.54%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.95 (Enterprise Value 7.38b / Total Assets 1.24b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 262.9% (Interest Expense 25.0m / Debt 9.51m)
Taxrate = 6.50% (6.20m / 95.4m)
NOPAT = 154.1m (EBIT 164.8m * (1 - 6.50%))
Current Ratio = 10.14 (Total Current Assets 925.6m / Total Current Liabilities 91.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 9.51m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.14b)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.24 (Net Debt -383.1m / EBITDA 171.2m)
Debt / FCF = -2.31 (Net Debt -383.1m / FCF TTM 165.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.03b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 17.90% (Net Income 198.9m / Total Assets 1.24b)
RoE = 19.36% (Net Income TTM 198.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.03b)
RoCE = 15.90% (EBIT 164.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.03b + L.T.Debt 9.51m))
RoIC = 15.00% (NOPAT 154.1m / Invested Capital 1.03b)
WACC = 8.94% (E(8.10b)/V(8.11b) * Re(8.95%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 8.95% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 1.75%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 66.07% ; FCFF base≈122.6m ; Y1≈80.5m ; Y5≈36.7m
Fair Price DCF = 34.49 (EV 617.0m - Net Debt -383.1m = Equity 1.00b / Shares 29.0m; r=8.94% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: 84.62 | EPS CAGR: 22.19% | SUE: -2.47 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 91.54 | Revenue CAGR: 166.7% | SUE: 0.68 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.69 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.40 | Chg30d=+0.096 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+22.4% | Growth Revenue=+44.4%