(LITE) Lumentum Holdings - Overview
Stock: Optical, Photonic, Laser, Module, Component
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 89.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.94% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.60 |
| Alpha | 488.66 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.264 |
| Beta Downside | 2.326 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 50.63% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 2.21 |
Description: LITE Lumentum Holdings January 10, 2026
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LITE) designs, manufactures, and sells optical and photonic components worldwide, serving customers across the Americas, APAC, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The firm operates two primary segments: Cloud & Networking, which supplies chips, modules and subsystems for data-center and AI/ML infrastructure; and Industrial Tech, which provides short-pulse solid-state, fiber, diode and gas lasers for semiconductor, solar, display, and electric-vehicle/battery production.
In fiscal 2023 the company reported roughly $1.6 billion in revenue, with the Cloud & Networking segment contributing about 58 % and Industrial Tech the remaining 42 %. Operating margins hovered near 10 % after a 2022-23 restructuring that reduced SG&A expenses by ~12 %. Free cash flow turned positive in Q4 2023, supporting a modest share-repurchase program announced in early 2024.
Key growth drivers include (1) the accelerating build-out of hyperscale data centers, where total capex is projected to rise ~10 % YoY through 2026, fueling demand for high-speed transceivers and photonic integration; (2) the surge in AI/ML workloads, which pushes network bandwidth requirements and creates a tail-winds for Lumentum’s advanced optical modules; and (3) expanding semiconductor and EV-battery manufacturing, which underpins the Industrial Tech laser market-global laser-based wafer processing equipment is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~8 % over the next five years.
Given these dynamics, a deeper quantitative dive-such as the one offered by ValueRay’s analyst platform-could help you assess whether LITE’s valuation reflects its growth prospects and risk profile.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 251.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.30 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -70.51% < 20% (prev 94.24%; Δ -164.7% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 247.0m > Net Income 251.6m |
| Net Debt (2.67b) to EBITDA (171.4m): 15.55 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.61 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (83.1m) vs 12m ago 20.61% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 33.44% > 18% (prev 0.22%; Δ 3322 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 48.00% > 50% (prev 34.90%; Δ 13.10% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.46 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 171.4m / Interest Expense TTM 34.5m) |
Altman Z'' -2.68
| A: -0.31 (Total Current Assets 2.28b - Total Current Liabilities 3.77b) / Total Assets 4.81b |
| B: -0.16 (Retained Earnings -778.8m / Total Assets 4.81b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 50.2m / Avg Total Assets 4.39b) |
| D: -0.19 (Book Value of Equity -769.3m / Total Liabilities 3.96b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -2.68 = D |
Beneish M -2.97
| DSRI: 1.09 (Receivables 376.8m/226.9m, Revenue 2.11b/1.38b) |
| GMI: 0.66 (GM 33.44% / 22.16%) |
| AQI: 0.86 (AQ_t 0.35 / AQ_t-1 0.41) |
| SGI: 1.52 (Revenue 2.11b / 1.38b) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 251.6m - CFO 247.0m) / TA 4.81b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.97 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of LITE shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +30.36%, over one month by +58.50%, over three months by +112.39% and over the past year by +573.73%.
Is LITE a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the LITE price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 535.6 | -3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 535.6 | -3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 600.5 | 8.8% |
LITE Fundamental Data Overview February 08, 2026
P/E Forward = 93.4579
P/S = 18.7213
P/B = 46.5534
P/EG = 0.97
Revenue TTM = 2.11b USD
EBIT TTM = 50.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 171.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 47.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.25b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.32b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.67b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 41.58b USD (39.41b + Debt 3.32b - CCE 1.16b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.46 (Ebit TTM 50.2m / Interest Expense TTM 34.5m)
EV/FCF = 319.1x (Enterprise Value 41.58b / FCF TTM 130.3m)
FCF Yield = 0.31% (FCF TTM 130.3m / Enterprise Value 41.58b)
FCF Margin = 6.19% (FCF TTM 130.3m / Revenue TTM 2.11b)
Net Margin = 11.95% (Net Income TTM 251.6m / Revenue TTM 2.11b)
Gross Margin = 33.44% ((Revenue TTM 2.11b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.40b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 36.08% (prev 34.00%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 8.65 (Enterprise Value 41.58b / Total Assets 4.81b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.53% (Interest Expense 17.7m / Debt 3.32b)
Taxrate = 18.96% (18.3m / 96.5m)
NOPAT = 40.7m (EBIT 50.2m * (1 - 18.96%))
Current Ratio = 0.61 (Total Current Assets 2.28b / Total Current Liabilities 3.77b)
Debt / Equity = 3.92 (Debt 3.32b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 846.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = 15.55 (Net Debt 2.67b / EBITDA 171.4m)
Debt / FCF = 20.45 (Net Debt 2.67b / FCF TTM 130.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 910.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.74% (Net Income 251.6m / Total Assets 4.81b)
RoE = 27.64% (Net Income TTM 251.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 910.4m)
RoCE = 5.24% (EBIT 50.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 910.4m + L.T.Debt 47.1m))
RoIC = 1.06% (NOPAT 40.7m / Invested Capital 3.83b)
WACC = 13.18% (E(39.41b)/V(42.73b) * Re(14.26%) + D(3.32b)/V(42.73b) * Rd(0.53%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 14.26% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 1.46%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 50.86% ; FCFF base≈130.3m ; Y1≈85.5m ; Y5≈39.0m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 413.3m - Net Debt 2.67b = -2.25b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -29.56 | EPS CAGR: 9.46% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 4
Revenue Correlation: 26.20 | Revenue CAGR: 14.89% | SUE: 0.54 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.19 | Chg30d=+0.679 | Revisions Net=+9 | Analysts=19
EPS current Year (2026-06-30): EPS=7.47 | Chg30d=+1.785 | Revisions Net=+10 | Growth EPS=+262.7% | Growth Revenue=+76.6%
EPS next Year (2027-06-30): EPS=13.38 | Chg30d=+5.201 | Revisions Net=+10 | Growth EPS=+79.1% | Growth Revenue=+55.5%