(MELI) MercadoLibre - Overview
Stock: Marketplace, Payments, Credit, Shipping, Ads
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 37.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.30% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.34 |
| Alpha | -1.19 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.878 |
| Beta Downside | 0.751 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 27.31% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.81 |
Description: MELI MercadoLibre January 27, 2026
MercadoLibre Inc. (NASDAQ:MELI) runs a multi-segment ecosystem across Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and other LATAM markets. Its core is the Mercado Libre Marketplace (website + app), complemented by the fintech arm Mercado Pago, which bundles payments, credit, investment (Mercado Fondo) and logistics (Mercado Envios). Ancillary services include classified listings, ad sales (Mercado Ads) and subscription-based storefronts (Mercado Shops). The firm was founded in 1999 and remains headquartered in Montevideo, Uruguay.
In the most recent quarter (Q4 2025), MELI reported a 22 % YoY increase in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) to $57 billion, driven largely by Brazil’s 28 % GMV surge. Total Payments Volume (TPV) on Mercado Pago grew 31 % YoY to $45 billion, while active buyers reached 71 million, up 15 % year-over-year. Revenue rose 19 % YoY to $2.9 billion, with marketplace contributing ~55 % and fintech ~40 % of the total.
Key macro drivers remain robust: LATAM e-commerce penetration is projected to exceed 20 % of total retail sales by 2027 (up from ~13 % in 2023), and digital-payment adoption is accelerating as inflation-driven cash avoidance pushes consumers toward fintech solutions. However, currency volatility in Argentina and Brazil introduces earnings uncertainty, and regulatory scrutiny of fintech lending could affect Mercado Credito’s growth trajectory.
For a deeper, data-driven valuation framework, you may find ValueRay’s analytical tools useful as a next step.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income: 2.08b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.22 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.44 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 16.31% < 20% (prev 18.50%; Δ -2.19% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.25 > 3% & CFO 9.05b > Net Income 2.08b |
| Net Debt (7.29b) to EBITDA (3.32b): 2.20 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.17 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (50.7m) vs 12m ago 0.00% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 45.14% > 18% (prev 0.46%; Δ 4468 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 88.32% > 50% (prev 83.89%; Δ 4.43% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 16.35 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 3.32b / Interest Expense TTM 158.0m) |
Altman Z'' 1.98
| A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 28.80b - Total Current Liabilities 24.52b) / Total Assets 36.69b |
| B: 0.14 (Retained Earnings 5.25b / Total Assets 36.69b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 2.58b / Avg Total Assets 29.66b) |
| D: 0.16 (Book Value of Equity 4.76b / Total Liabilities 30.47b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.98 = BBB |
Beneish M -2.83
| DSRI: 1.18 (Receivables 14.76b/9.05b, Revenue 26.19b/18.98b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 45.14% / 46.28%) |
| AQI: 0.92 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.11) |
| SGI: 1.38 (Revenue 26.19b / 18.98b) |
| TATA: -0.19 (NI 2.08b - CFO 9.05b) / TA 36.69b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.83 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of MELI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.93%, over one month by +8.82%, over three months by -7.28% and over the past year by +12.51%.
Is MELI a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 15
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MELI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 2817 | 31.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 2817 | 31.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 2394 | 11.5% |
MELI Fundamental Data Overview January 31, 2026
P/E Forward = 33.0033
P/S = 4.2055
P/B = 18.0851
P/EG = 1.091
Revenue TTM = 26.19b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.58b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.32b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.34b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.83b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 9.88b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 7.29b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 115.82b USD (110.02b + Debt 9.88b - CCE 4.08b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 16.35 (Ebit TTM 2.58b / Interest Expense TTM 158.0m)
EV/FCF = 14.59x (Enterprise Value 115.82b / FCF TTM 7.94b)
FCF Yield = 6.85% (FCF TTM 7.94b / Enterprise Value 115.82b)
FCF Margin = 30.30% (FCF TTM 7.94b / Revenue TTM 26.19b)
Net Margin = 7.93% (Net Income TTM 2.08b / Revenue TTM 26.19b)
Gross Margin = 45.14% ((Revenue TTM 26.19b - Cost of Revenue TTM 14.37b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 43.31% (prev 45.57%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.16 (Enterprise Value 115.82b / Total Assets 36.69b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.35% (Interest Expense 35.0m / Debt 9.88b)
Taxrate = 21.42% (521.0m / 2.43b)
NOPAT = 2.03b (EBIT 2.58b * (1 - 21.42%))
Current Ratio = 1.17 (Total Current Assets 28.80b / Total Current Liabilities 24.52b)
Debt / Equity = 1.59 (Debt 9.88b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 6.22b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.20 (Net Debt 7.29b / EBITDA 3.32b)
Debt / FCF = 0.92 (Net Debt 7.29b / FCF TTM 7.94b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.32b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.00% (Net Income 2.08b / Total Assets 36.69b)
RoE = 39.03% (Net Income TTM 2.08b / Total Stockholder Equity 5.32b)
RoCE = 29.84% (EBIT 2.58b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.32b + L.T.Debt 3.34b))
RoIC = 16.88% (NOPAT 2.03b / Invested Capital 12.03b)
WACC = 8.42% (E(110.02b)/V(119.89b) * Re(9.15%) + D(9.88b)/V(119.89b) * Rd(0.35%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.15% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.00%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.91% ; FCFF base≈7.12b ; Y1≈8.78b ; Y5≈14.96b
Fair Price DCF = 4452 (EV 232.98b - Net Debt 7.29b = Equity 225.68b / Shares 50.7m; r=8.42% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 83.57 | EPS CAGR: 110.1% | SUE: -1.59 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.68 | Revenue CAGR: 39.42% | SUE: 0.73 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=11.76 | Chg30d=-0.847 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=59.61 | Chg30d=-0.167 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+49.2% | Growth Revenue=+29.4%