MELI Stock Analysis: MercadoLibre | NASDAQ

Internet Retail | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 82.091m USD | 12M Return: -30.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Marketplace, Payments, Lending, Logistics
Total Rating 43
Safety 70
Buy Signal -0.73
Internet Retail
Industry Rotation: +1.2
Market Cap: 82.1B
Avg Turnover: 814M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility38.4%
VaR 5th Pctl6.48%
VaR vs Median2.32%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.99
Rel. Str. IBD12.2
Rel. Str. Peer Group41.7
Character TTM
Beta0.676
Beta Downside0.112
Hurst Exponent0.481
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD40.82%
CAGR/Max DD0.27
CAGR/Mean DD0.88
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of MELI over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 1.37, "2021-09": 1.92, "2021-12": -0.75, "2022-03": 1.3, "2022-06": 2.43, "2022-09": 2.56, "2022-12": 3.25, "2023-03": 3.97, "2023-06": 5.16, "2023-09": 7.16, "2023-12": 3.25, "2024-03": 6.78, "2024-06": 10.48, "2024-09": 7.83, "2024-12": 12.61, "2025-03": 9.74, "2025-06": 10.31, "2025-09": 8.32, "2025-12": 11.03, "2026-03": 8.23,
EPS CAGR: 44.15%
EPS Trend: 92.3%
Last SUE: -0.11
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of MELI over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 1703, 2021-09: 1858, 2021-12: 2130.766, 2022-03: 2248, 2022-06: 2597, 2022-09: 2690, 2022-12: 3002, 2023-03: 3186, 2023-06: 3585, 2023-09: 3927, 2023-12: 4261, 2024-03: 4333, 2024-06: 5073, 2024-09: 5312, 2024-12: 6059, 2025-03: 5935, 2025-06: 6790, 2025-09: 7409, 2025-12: 8759, 2026-03: 8845,
Rev. CAGR: 39.43%
Rev. Trend: 100.0%
Last SUE: 2.22
Qual. Beats: 2

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan +10.5% 47
Feb +0.6% 4
Mar -3.6% 18
Apr -1.9% 9
May +3.1% 11
Jun -1.5% 12
Jul +3.4% 47
Aug +4.7% 16
Sep -6.4% 35
Oct -3.5% 22
Nov +4.2% 19
Dec -5.1% 58

Average return per month, with how dependable it is below — did the month move the same way every year (high) or randomly (low). Above 60 is a pattern worth trusting; under 40 is noise.

Description: MELI MercadoLibre

MercadoLibre, Inc. (NASDAQ: MELI) is a Uruguay-based company that operates one of Latin Americas largest online commerce and fintech ecosystems, with a presence across Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and other markets. Founded in 1999 and headquartered in Montevideo, the company runs the Mercado Libre Marketplace, a two-sided platform accessible via mobile app and website that connects buyers and sellers, complemented by advertising and classifieds services (Mercado Ads and Mercado Libre Classifieds).

The business extends well beyond marketplace commerce through Mercado Pago, a financial technology platform offering digital payments and related services. Additional products include Mercado Fondo for investing account balances, Mercado Credito for lending, and Mercado Envios for logistics and shipping, creating an integrated commerce-and-finance model that targets both consumers and merchants.

Listed on NASDAQ since 2007, MercadoLibre is classified within the Consumer Discretionary sector under Broadline Retail, reflecting its core marketplace operations alongside its growing fintech, credit, and logistics verticals.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Mercado Pago credit portfolio expansion lifts fintech margins
  • Brazil and Mexico GMV growth accelerates marketplace revenue
  • Argentina peso devaluation pressures reported margins and earnings
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 6.0
Net Income: 1.92b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.23 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.18 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 16.21% < 20% (prev 16.42%; Δ -0.22% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.25 > 3% & CFO 11.9b > Net Income 1.92b
Net Debt (9.43b) to EBITDA (3.39b): 2.78 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.16 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (50.7m) vs 12m ago -0.00% < -2%
Gross Margin: 43.86% > 18% (prev 46.13%; Δ -2.27% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 85.24% > 50% (prev 80.84%; Δ 4.40% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 14.33 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.49b / Interest Expense TTM 174.0m)
Altman Z'' 1.79
A: 0.11 (Total Current Assets 37.1b - Total Current Liabilities 32.0b) / Total Assets 46.9b
B: 0.13 (Retained Earnings 6.23b / Total Assets 46.9b)
C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 2.49b / Avg Total Assets 37.3b)
D: 0.18 (Book Value of Equity 7.28b / Total Liabilities 39.7b)
Altman-Z'' = 1.79 = BBB
Beneish M -2.61
DSRI: 1.15 (Receivables 18.5b/11.3b, Revenue 31.8b/22.4b)
GMI: 1.05 (GM 46.13% / 43.86%)
AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.11 / AQ_t-1 0.11)
SGI: 1.42 (Revenue 31.8b / 22.4b)
TATA: -0.21 (NI 1.92b - CFO 11.9b) / TA 46.9b)
Beneish M = -2.61 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of MELI shares?

As of July 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 1697.39 with a total of 432,915 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.98%, over one month by +0.65%, over three months by +1.35% and over the past year by -30.35%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 1584.50 (which is 6.7% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).

Is MELI a buy, sell or hold?

MercadoLibre has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.40. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MELI.

  • StrongBuy: 15
  • Buy: 6
  • Hold: 3
  • Sell: 1
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the MELI price?
Analysts Target Price 2217 30.6%
MercadoLibre (MELI) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 27 June 2026
Market Cap USD = 82.1b (82.1b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 42.7356
P/E Forward = 31.4465
P/S = 2.5812
P/B = 11.2747
P/EG = 0.9981
Revenue TTM = 31.8b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.49b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.39b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.54b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.79b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 14.9b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 2.54b
Net Debt = 9.43b USD (calculated: Debt 14.9b - CCE 5.46b)
Enterprise Value = 91.5b USD (82.1b + Debt 14.9b - CCE 5.46b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.33 (Ebit TTM 2.49b / Interest Expense TTM 174.0m)
EV/FCF = 8.55x (Enterprise Value 91.5b / FCF TTM 10.7b)
FCF Yield = 11.70% (FCF TTM 10.7b / Enterprise Value 91.5b)
FCF Margin = 33.67% (FCF TTM 10.7b / Revenue TTM 31.8b)
Net Margin = 6.04% (Net Income TTM 1.92b / Revenue TTM 31.8b)
Gross Margin = 43.86% ((Revenue TTM 31.8b - Cost of Revenue TTM 17.9b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 43.66% (prev 43.20%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.95 (Enterprise Value 91.5b / Total Assets 46.9b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.17% (Interest Expense 174.0m / Debt 14.9b)
Taxrate = 15.73% (365.0m / 2.32b)
NOPAT = 2.10b (EBIT 2.49b * (1 - 15.73%))
Current Ratio = 1.16 (Total Current Assets 37.1b / Total Current Liabilities 32.0b)
Debt / Equity = 2.04 (Debt 14.9b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 7.28b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.78 (Net Debt 9.43b / EBITDA 3.39b)
Debt / FCF = 0.88 (Net Debt 9.43b / FCF TTM 10.7b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 6.49b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.15% (Net Income 1.92b / Total Assets 46.9b)
RoE = 29.58% (Net Income TTM 1.92b / Total Stockholder Equity 6.49b)
RoCE = 22.61% (EBIT 2.49b / Capital Employed (Equity 6.49b + L.T.Debt 4.54b))
RoIC = 10.97% (NOPAT 2.10b / Invested Capital 19.2b)
WACC = 7.23% (E(82.1b)/V(97.0b) * Re(8.36%) + D(14.9b)/V(97.0b) * Rd(1.17%) * (1-Tc(0.16)))
Discount Rate = 8.36% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -17.16 | Cagr: -0.00%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈8.97b ; Y1≈10.3b ; Y5≈15.1b
[DCF] Fair Price = 4.31k (EV 228b - Net Debt 9.43b = Equity 218b / Shares 50.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 92.35 | EPS CAGR: 44.15% | SUE: -0.11 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.96 | Revenue CAGR: 39.43% | SUE: 2.22 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=9.54 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=-67% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=39.96 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=-78% | GrowthEPS=+1.4% | GrowthRev=+40.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=57.42 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=-68% | GrowthEPS=+43.7% | GrowthRev=+25.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -78%