(MOMO) Hello - Overview
Stock: Momo, Tantan, QOOL, Live, Video
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 5.69% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.70% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -17.26% |
| Payout Consistency | 87.4% |
| Payout Ratio | 10.1% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 39.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -5.10% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.11 |
| Alpha | -12.03 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.463 |
| Beta Downside | 0.670 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 50.91% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.11 |
Description: MOMO Hello January 20, 2026
Hello Group Inc. (NASDAQ:MOMO) operates mobile-based social and entertainment platforms in China and abroad, organized into three primary segments: the Momo app (location-based social networking and live-streaming), the Tantan dating app, and ancillary services under the Hertz, Soulchill, and Duidui brands. Its product suite spans short-form video, live talent shows, mobile karaoke, virtual parties, and mobile gaming, monetized through advertising, value-added services, and in-app purchases.
As of Q4 2023, Hello Group reported approximately 120 million monthly active users (MAU) across its portfolio, a 9 % YoY increase, and generated RMB 1.2 billion in revenue, up 15 % year-over-year, driven largely by higher average revenue per user (ARPU) in its live-streaming segment. The company’s growth is closely tied to two macro-level drivers: (1) China’s continued expansion of mobile internet penetration, now exceeding 80 % of the population, which enlarges the addressable audience for interactive media, and (2) regulatory scrutiny of dating and social apps, which has prompted Hello Group to diversify revenue away from pure matchmaking toward entertainment-focused services that face lower compliance risk.
For a deeper dive into Hello Group’s valuation sensitivities, the free analysis on ValueRay can be a useful next step.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income: 753.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.49 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 76.97% < 20% (prev 47.24%; Δ 29.73% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 1.06b > Net Income 753.9m |
| Net Debt (-4.03b) to EBITDA (1.58b): -2.55 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 5.20 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (169.7m) vs 12m ago -7.25% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 37.09% > 18% (prev 0.41%; Δ 3669 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 65.39% > 50% (prev 60.29%; Δ 5.10% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 13.82 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.58b / Interest Expense TTM 109.3m) |
Altman Z'' 8.80
| A: 0.58 (Total Current Assets 9.93b - Total Current Liabilities 1.91b) / Total Assets 13.74b |
| B: 0.48 (Retained Earnings 6.64b / Total Assets 13.74b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 1.51b / Avg Total Assets 15.95b) |
| D: 2.62 (Book Value of Equity 6.64b / Total Liabilities 2.53b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 8.80 = AAA |
Beneish M -2.89
| DSRI: 1.40 (Receivables 248.9m/186.4m, Revenue 10.43b/10.94b) |
| GMI: 1.09 (GM 37.09% / 40.60%) |
| AQI: 0.63 (AQ_t 0.19 / AQ_t-1 0.31) |
| SGI: 0.95 (Revenue 10.43b / 10.94b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 753.9m - CFO 1.06b) / TA 13.74b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.89 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of MOMO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.81%, over one month by -3.24%, over three months by -2.24% and over the past year by -5.89%.
Is MOMO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the MOMO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 8.9 | 36% |
| Analysts Target Price | 8.9 | 36% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 6.8 | 3% |
MOMO Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/E Trailing = 11.1
P/E Forward = 6.4392
P/S = 0.1026
P/B = 0.686
P/EG = 0.9202
Revenue TTM = 10.43b CNY
EBIT TTM = 1.51b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 1.58b CNY
Long Term Debt = 3.51m CNY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 95.5m CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 159.9m CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -4.03b CNY (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = -1.15b CNY (7.43b + Debt 159.9m - CCE 8.74b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 13.82 (Ebit TTM 1.51b / Interest Expense TTM 109.3m)
EV/FCF = -1.33x (Enterprise Value -1.15b / FCF TTM 863.0m)
FCF Yield = -75.05% (FCF TTM 863.0m / Enterprise Value -1.15b)
FCF Margin = 8.28% (FCF TTM 863.0m / Revenue TTM 10.43b)
Net Margin = 7.23% (Net Income TTM 753.9m / Revenue TTM 10.43b)
Gross Margin = 37.09% ((Revenue TTM 10.43b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.56b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 37.42% (prev 38.65%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = -0.08 (set to none) (Enterprise Value -1.15b / Total Assets 13.74b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 11.46% (Interest Expense 18.3m / Debt 159.9m)
Taxrate = 15.70% (65.1m / 414.7m)
NOPAT = 1.27b (EBIT 1.51b * (1 - 15.70%))
Current Ratio = 5.20 (Total Current Assets 9.93b / Total Current Liabilities 1.91b)
Debt / Equity = 0.10 (Debt 159.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.57b)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.55 (Net Debt -4.03b / EBITDA 1.58b)
Debt / FCF = -4.67 (Net Debt -4.03b / FCF TTM 863.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 8.77b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.73% (Net Income 753.9m / Total Assets 13.74b)
RoE = 8.60% (Net Income TTM 753.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 8.77b)
RoCE = 17.21% (EBIT 1.51b / Capital Employed (Equity 8.77b + L.T.Debt 3.51m))
RoIC = 24.44% (NOPAT 1.27b / Invested Capital 5.21b)
WACC = 7.66% (E(7.43b)/V(7.59b) * Re(7.62%) + D(159.9m)/V(7.59b) * Rd(11.46%) * (1-Tc(0.16)))
Discount Rate = 7.62% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -6.82%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 76.98% ; FCFF base≈938.4m ; Y1≈804.4m ; Y5≈625.9m
Fair Price DCF = 135.6 (EV 12.14b - Net Debt -4.03b = Equity 16.18b / Shares 119.3m; r=7.66% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -17.35% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -55.16 | EPS CAGR: -27.83% | SUE: -1.42 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -88.61 | Revenue CAGR: -8.34% | SUE: 0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.60 | Chg30d=-1.425 | Revisions Net=-5 | Growth EPS=+19.2% | Growth Revenue=-0.6%