(MQ) Marqeta - Overview
Stock: Card Issuing, Transaction Processing, API Platform
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 53.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.8% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.37 |
| Alpha | -2.79 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.717 |
| Beta Downside | 0.897 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 53.34% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.20 |
Description: MQ Marqeta January 12, 2026
Marqeta, Inc. (NASDAQ:MQ) operates a cloud-based, open-API platform that lets businesses issue and process cards, manage bank-account-like features (e.g., demand-deposit accounts, ACH, early-pay direct deposit, fee-free ATMs), and control risk through its RiskControl suite. The platform also includes a self-service Dashboard and migration tools that simplify moving legacy card programs onto Marqeta’s infrastructure.
Its solutions serve fintechs, on-demand services, expense-management firms, e-commerce merchants, and buy-now-pay-later providers. In FY 2023 Marqeta processed over $150 billion in card volume-a 45 % year-over-year rise-and grew revenue 33 % to $560 million, with gross margins expanding to roughly 71 % as scale lowered per-transaction costs. The business is driven by macro trends such as the accelerating shift to digital payments, rising consumer demand for instant-funding products, and regulatory scrutiny of card-issuing models.
Given the projected ~12 % CAGR in the card-issuing API market through 2028, analysts should watch Marqeta’s customer-acquisition cost trends and any potential interchange-fee reforms that could affect pricing power. For a deeper, data-driven dive, explore ValueRay’s quantitative analysis of MQ’s valuation metrics.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income: -39.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.02 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 95.70% < 20% (prev 181.1%; Δ -85.43% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 134.1m > Net Income -39.6m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 1.88 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (448.7m) vs 12m ago -11.52% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 70.60% > 18% (prev 0.69%; Δ 6991 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 40.25% > 50% (prev 34.13%; Δ 6.13% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -2.28 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -40.9m / Interest Expense TTM -30.0m) |
Altman Z'' -0.92
| A: 0.38 (Total Current Assets 1.20b - Total Current Liabilities 636.8m) / Total Assets 1.49b |
| B: -0.54 (Retained Earnings -810.4m / Total Assets 1.49b) |
| C: -0.05 (EBIT TTM -68.3m / Avg Total Assets 1.46b) |
| D: -1.25 (Book Value of Equity -809.0m / Total Liabilities 649.2m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -0.92 = CCC |
Beneish M -2.86
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 104.4m/84.9m, Revenue 588.6m/490.0m) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 70.60% / 68.75%) |
| AQI: 1.25 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.12) |
| SGI: 1.20 (Revenue 588.6m / 490.0m) |
| TATA: -0.12 (NI -39.6m - CFO 134.1m) / TA 1.49b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.86 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of MQ shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.42%, over one month by -12.78%, over three months by -13.32% and over the past year by +11.61%.
Is MQ a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 11
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MQ price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 5.7 | 35.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 5.7 | 35.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 4 | -5.7% |
MQ Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 3.1453
P/B = 2.1868
P/EG = 1.5616
Revenue TTM = 588.6m USD
EBIT TTM = -68.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = -40.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 7.91m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.06m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 7.91m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -739.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.03b USD (1.85b + Debt 7.91m - CCE 830.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -2.28 (Ebit TTM -68.3m / Interest Expense TTM -30.0m)
EV/FCF = 9.67x (Enterprise Value 1.03b / FCF TTM 106.3m)
FCF Yield = 10.34% (FCF TTM 106.3m / Enterprise Value 1.03b)
FCF Margin = 18.07% (FCF TTM 106.3m / Revenue TTM 588.6m)
Net Margin = -6.74% (Net Income TTM -39.6m / Revenue TTM 588.6m)
Gross Margin = 70.60% ((Revenue TTM 588.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 173.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 70.15% (prev 69.19%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.69 (Enterprise Value 1.03b / Total Assets 1.49b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 147.6% (Interest Expense 11.7m / Debt 7.91m)
Taxrate = 2.82% (793.0k / 28.1m)
NOPAT = -66.4m (EBIT -68.3m * (1 - 2.82%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.88 (Total Current Assets 1.20b / Total Current Liabilities 636.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 7.91m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 839.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 18.08 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -739.3m / EBITDA -40.9m)
Debt / FCF = -6.95 (Net Debt -739.3m / FCF TTM 106.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 938.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.71% (Net Income -39.6m / Total Assets 1.49b)
RoE = -4.22% (Net Income TTM -39.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 938.7m)
RoCE = -7.22% (EBIT -68.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 938.7m + L.T.Debt 7.91m))
RoIC = -7.01% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -66.4m / Invested Capital 946.5m)
WACC = 8.52% (E(1.85b)/V(1.86b) * Re(8.56%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 8.56% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -7.31%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 67.87% ; FCFF base≈76.0m ; Y1≈49.9m ; Y5≈22.8m
Fair Price DCF = 2.82 (EV 407.8m - Net Debt -739.3m = Equity 1.15b / Shares 407.2m; r=8.52% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: 42.46 | EPS CAGR: 9.69% | SUE: 0.57 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -44.21 | Revenue CAGR: 1.33% | SUE: 3.13 | # QB: 2