(MTRX) Matrix Service - Overview
Stock: Tanks, Terminals, Substations, Refineries, LNG
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 68.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.26 |
| Alpha | -41.73 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.421 |
| Beta Downside | 1.720 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 36.07% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.40 |
Description: MTRX Matrix Service December 28, 2025
Matrix Service Co (NASDAQ:MTRX) delivers engineering, fabrication, construction, and maintenance services for critical energy and industrial infrastructure across the U.S., Canada, and select international markets. Its business is organized into three primary segments: Storage & Terminal Solutions (cryogenic and specialty tanks for LNG, hydrogen, ammonia, etc., plus related loading/off-loading and marine structures), Utility & Power Infrastructure (substation construction, upgrades, and LNG peak-shaving facilities), and Process & Industrial Facilities (refinery turnarounds, hydrogen processing upgrades, and aerospace/defense infrastructure).
Key sector drivers include the accelerating global shift toward LNG and hydrogen as transition fuels, which is pushing demand for cryogenic storage and peak-shaving assets, and a U.S. infrastructure spending surge-Congress has earmarked over $1 trillion for power grid upgrades through 2028, directly expanding the addressable market for MTRX’s substation and utility projects. The company’s 2023 revenue was approximately $1.1 billion, with a reported backlog of roughly $1.5 billion, indicating a pipeline that could sustain growth if execution remains on schedule.
Operating margins have hovered near 8% EBITDA, but the capital-intensive nature of EPC contracts makes cash-flow conversion sensitive to project delays and material cost inflation-factors that analysts should monitor closely. For a data-driven deep-dive on MTRX’s financials and risk profile, the ValueRay platform offers a concise, quantitative snapshot worth reviewing.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income: -23.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -10.27 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -4.05% < 20% (prev 2.41%; Δ -6.46% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 79.7m > Net Income -23.9m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 0.93 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (28.0m) vs 12m ago 1.63% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 5.65% > 18% (prev 0.05%; Δ 559.3% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 152.7% > 50% (prev 148.1%; Δ 4.62% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -41.03 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -12.9m / Interest Expense TTM 556.0k) |
Altman Z'' -0.66
| A: -0.06 (Total Current Assets 410.4m - Total Current Liabilities 443.5m) / Total Assets 598.2m |
| B: 0.00 (Retained Earnings 816.0k / Total Assets 598.2m) |
| C: -0.04 (EBIT TTM -22.8m / Avg Total Assets 534.2m) |
| D: -0.02 (Book Value of Equity -8.83m / Total Liabilities 461.9m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -0.66 = B |
Beneish M -3.10
| DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 198.3m/164.5m, Revenue 815.6m/696.1m) |
| GMI: 0.93 (GM 5.65% / 5.23%) |
| AQI: 1.04 (AQ_t 0.22 / AQ_t-1 0.21) |
| SGI: 1.17 (Revenue 815.6m / 696.1m) |
| TATA: -0.17 (NI -23.9m - CFO 79.7m) / TA 598.2m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.10 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of MTRX shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -22.77%, over one month by -9.42%, over three months by -12.64% and over the past year by -21.78%.
Is MTRX a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MTRX price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 16.5 | 49.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 16.5 | 49.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 11.6 | 5.1% |
MTRX Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 0.4938
P/B = 2.9494
P/EG = 7.5159
Revenue TTM = 815.6m USD
EBIT TTM = -22.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = -12.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 20.4m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.46m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 20.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -171.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 230.8m USD (402.7m + Debt 20.4m - CCE 192.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -41.03 (Ebit TTM -22.8m / Interest Expense TTM 556.0k)
EV/FCF = 3.21x (Enterprise Value 230.8m / FCF TTM 71.9m)
FCF Yield = 31.15% (FCF TTM 71.9m / Enterprise Value 230.8m)
FCF Margin = 8.82% (FCF TTM 71.9m / Revenue TTM 815.6m)
Net Margin = -2.93% (Net Income TTM -23.9m / Revenue TTM 815.6m)
Gross Margin = 5.65% ((Revenue TTM 815.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 769.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 6.69% (prev 3.75%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.39 (Enterprise Value 230.8m / Total Assets 598.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.62% (Interest Expense 127.0k / Debt 20.4m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -18.0m (EBIT -22.8m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.93 (Total Current Assets 410.4m / Total Current Liabilities 443.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.15 (Debt 20.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 136.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 13.38 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -171.9m / EBITDA -12.9m)
Debt / FCF = -2.39 (Net Debt -171.9m / FCF TTM 71.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 145.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -4.47% (Net Income -23.9m / Total Assets 598.2m)
RoE = -16.44% (Net Income TTM -23.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 145.4m)
RoCE = -13.76% (EBIT -22.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 145.4m + L.T.Debt 20.4m))
RoIC = -12.39% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -18.0m / Invested Capital 145.4m)
WACC = 10.64% (E(402.7m)/V(423.1m) * Re(11.15%) + D(20.4m)/V(423.1m) * Rd(0.62%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.15% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 1.15%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 72.22% ; FCFF base≈85.1m ; Y1≈99.6m ; Y5≈150.2m
Fair Price DCF = 65.43 (EV 1.67b - Net Debt -171.9m = Equity 1.84b / Shares 28.1m; r=10.64% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 18.14% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 66.92 | EPS CAGR: 87.32% | SUE: -0.14 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 29.19 | Revenue CAGR: 7.43% | SUE: 0.44 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.12 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-06-30): EPS=0.33 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+134.9% | Growth Revenue=+18.1%
EPS next Year (2027-06-30): EPS=0.93 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+184.6% | Growth Revenue=+10.7%