(NBIX) Neurocrine Biosciences - Overview
Stock: Movement, Endocrine, Psychiatric, Adrenal, Gynecology
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 32.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -14.6% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.08 |
| Alpha | -20.23 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.824 |
| Beta Downside | 0.786 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 42.89% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.26 |
Description: NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences January 02, 2026
Neurocrine Biosciences (NASDAQ: NBIX) focuses on developing and commercializing drugs for neurological, neuroendocrine, and neuropsychiatric disorders, with a portfolio that includes FDA-approved products such as INGREZZA (tardive dyskinesia), ALKINDI (adrenal insufficiency), Orilissa (endometriosis), and Oriahnn (uterine fibroids). The company also maintains a pipeline of CNS-focused candidates (e.g., valbenazine for dyskinetic cerebral palsy, Osavampator for treatment-resistant depression) and collaborates with partners like Takeda, AbbVie, and Voyager Therapeutics.
Key recent metrics (Q4 2023): revenue ≈ $274 million, driven primarily by INGREZZA and ALKINDI; net income ≈ $71 million; cash and equivalents ≈ $1.2 billion, providing runway for late-stage trials. The valbenazine franchise contributed roughly $140 million in 2023, and the company’s R&D spend was about 16 % of revenue, reflecting a high-risk, high-reward pipeline strategy.
Sector drivers that materially affect NBIX’s outlook include: (1) the growing prevalence of rare and chronic CNS disorders in an aging population, which expands the addressable market; (2) heightened regulatory scrutiny and the need for robust Phase III data, which increases binary outcome risk; and (3) the biotech financing environment, where elevated interest rates have compressed valuation multiples, making cash-rich companies with late-stage assets relatively more attractive.
For a deeper quantitative dive, the ValueRay platform offers a granular breakdown of NBIX’s valuation metrics.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.5
| Net Income: 428.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.45 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 56.67% < 20% (prev 64.51%; Δ -7.84% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 636.8m > Net Income 428.0m |
| Net Debt (88.2m) to EBITDA (665.4m): 0.13 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.38 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (102.5m) vs 12m ago -1.73% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 68.78% > 50% (prev 63.45%; Δ 5.34% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.02 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 665.4m / Interest Expense TTM 126.6m) |
Altman Z'' 3.91
| A: 0.36 (Total Current Assets 2.16b - Total Current Liabilities 638.0m) / Total Assets 4.27b |
| B: 0.07 (Retained Earnings 294.0m / Total Assets 4.27b) |
| C: 0.16 (EBIT TTM 635.7m / Avg Total Assets 3.90b) |
| D: 0.24 (Book Value of Equity 307.3m / Total Liabilities 1.26b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.91 = AA |
Beneish M -2.74
| DSRI: 1.27 (Receivables 728.0m/481.1m, Revenue 2.68b/2.24b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 98.37% / 98.52%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.36 / AQ_t-1 0.37) |
| SGI: 1.20 (Revenue 2.68b / 2.24b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 428.0m - CFO 636.8m) / TA 4.27b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.74 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of NBIX shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.78%, over one month by +2.80%, over three months by -8.79% and over the past year by -6.19%.
Is NBIX a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 15
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the NBIX price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 179.6 | 27.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 179.6 | 27.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 140.8 | -0.3% |
NBIX Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 19.0476
P/S = 5.0568
P/B = 4.5166
P/EG = 0.2733
Revenue TTM = 2.68b USD
EBIT TTM = 635.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 665.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 428.4m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 428.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 88.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 12.88b USD (13.57b + Debt 428.4m - CCE 1.11b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.02 (Ebit TTM 635.7m / Interest Expense TTM 126.6m)
EV/FCF = 21.72x (Enterprise Value 12.88b / FCF TTM 593.1m)
FCF Yield = 4.60% (FCF TTM 593.1m / Enterprise Value 12.88b)
FCF Margin = 22.11% (FCF TTM 593.1m / Revenue TTM 2.68b)
Net Margin = 15.95% (Net Income TTM 428.0m / Revenue TTM 2.68b)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 2.68b - Cost of Revenue TTM 43.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.02 (Enterprise Value 12.88b / Total Assets 4.27b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 29.55% (Interest Expense 126.6m / Debt 428.4m)
Taxrate = 28.20% (82.3m / 291.8m)
NOPAT = 456.4m (EBIT 635.7m * (1 - 28.20%))
Current Ratio = 3.38 (Total Current Assets 2.16b / Total Current Liabilities 638.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.14 (Debt 428.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.00b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.13 (Net Debt 88.2m / EBITDA 665.4m)
Debt / FCF = 0.15 (Net Debt 88.2m / FCF TTM 593.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.71b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.97% (Net Income 428.0m / Total Assets 4.27b)
RoE = 15.82% (Net Income TTM 428.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.71b)
RoCE = 20.28% (EBIT 635.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.71b + L.T.Debt 428.4m))
RoIC = 16.87% (NOPAT 456.4m / Invested Capital 2.71b)
WACC = 9.33% (E(13.57b)/V(13.99b) * Re(8.95%) + D(428.4m)/V(13.99b) * Rd(29.55%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 8.95% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.10%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 77.08% ; FCFF base≈531.9m ; Y1≈656.1m ; Y5≈1.12b
Fair Price DCF = 148.2 (EV 14.87b - Net Debt 88.2m = Equity 14.78b / Shares 99.7m; r=9.33% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 46.65 | EPS CAGR: -3.90% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.76 | Revenue CAGR: 28.32% | SUE: 2.77 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.90 | Chg30d=-0.085 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=11
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.15 | Chg30d=-0.027 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+33.9% | Growth Revenue=+19.8%