(NEXT) Nextdecade - Overview
Stock: LNG Terminal, Carbon Capture
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 65.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.1% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.31 |
| Alpha | -56.20 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.129 |
| Beta Downside | 2.329 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 60.00% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.16 |
Description: NEXT Nextdecade January 11, 2026
NextDecade Corp. (NASDAQ: NEXT) is a U.S.-based energy infrastructure firm that designs, builds, and operates liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities, most notably the Rio Grande LNG terminal in Brownsville, Texas. In addition to LNG sales, the company is developing carbon-capture-and-storage (CCS) capabilities at the terminal and pursuing third-party CCS projects, positioning itself at the intersection of gas export growth and emerging climate-mitigation services.
Key operational metrics (as of the latest quarterly filing) include a projected 15 MMtpa (million tonnes per annum) LNG capacity for Rio Grande, with commercial operations targeted for 2025-2026. The project is financed with roughly $10 bn of senior debt, giving a leverage ratio of ~3.5× net debt/EBITDA, which is higher than the sector median of ~2.8× and therefore a material risk factor. Macro drivers are strong: global LNG demand is expected to rise 5-6 % annually through 2030, fueled by Europe’s energy security concerns and Asia’s transition from coal, while U.S. LNG export capacity is expanding at a CAGR of ~12 % since 2015. The CCS component aligns with a projected $100 bn market for industrial carbon capture by 2030, but the commercial viability of the Rio Grande CCS project remains uncertain pending clear carbon-price signals.
For a data-rich, quantitative view of NEXT’s valuation assumptions, you may find ValueRay’s model a useful next step in your analysis.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.0
| Net Income: -193.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.37 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 16.19 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -5516 % < 20% (prev -31.5k%; Δ 26.0k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.02 > 3% & CFO -157.6m > Net Income -193.5m |
| Net Debt (6.55b) to EBITDA (92.1m): 71.06 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.64 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (262.6m) vs 12m ago 1.23% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: -71.89% > 18% (prev -7.17%; Δ -6472 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 0.10% > 50% (prev 0.02%; Δ 0.09% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.69 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 92.1m / Interest Expense TTM 114.8m) |
Altman Z'' -0.54
| A: -0.04 (Total Current Assets 764.8m - Total Current Liabilities 1.19b) / Total Assets 10.01b |
| B: -0.07 (Retained Earnings -712.7m / Total Assets 10.01b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 78.7m / Avg Total Assets 7.57b) |
| D: -0.09 (Book Value of Equity -712.7m / Total Liabilities 8.03b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -0.54 = B |
What is the price of NEXT shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.95%, over one month by +3.15%, over three months by -10.88% and over the past year by -33.67%.
Is NEXT a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the NEXT price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 9.7 | 84.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 9.7 | 84.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 4.4 | -16% |
NEXT Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
Revenue TTM = 7.78m USD
EBIT TTM = 78.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 92.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 6.61b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.30m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.76b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 6.55b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 7.89b USD (1.35b + Debt 6.76b - CCE 209.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.69 (Ebit TTM 78.7m / Interest Expense TTM 114.8m)
EV/FCF = -2.13x (Enterprise Value 7.89b / FCF TTM -3.71b)
FCF Yield = -47.03% (FCF TTM -3.71b / Enterprise Value 7.89b)
FCF Margin = -47.7k% (FCF TTM -3.71b / Revenue TTM 7.78m)
Net Margin = -2487 % (Net Income TTM -193.5m / Revenue TTM 7.78m)
Gross Margin = -71.89% ((Revenue TTM 7.78m - Cost of Revenue TTM 13.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.79 (Enterprise Value 7.89b / Total Assets 10.01b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.57% (Interest Expense 38.6m / Debt 6.76b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 62.2m (EBIT 78.7m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.64 (Total Current Assets 764.8m / Total Current Liabilities 1.19b)
Debt / Equity = 43.73 (Debt 6.76b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 154.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 71.06 (Net Debt 6.55b / EBITDA 92.1m)
Debt / FCF = -1.76 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 6.55b / FCF TTM -3.71b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 273.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.56% (Net Income -193.5m / Total Assets 10.01b)
RoE = -70.67% (Net Income TTM -193.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 273.8m)
RoCE = 1.14% (EBIT 78.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 273.8m + L.T.Debt 6.61b))
RoIC = 1.17% (NOPAT 62.2m / Invested Capital 5.34b)
WACC = 2.05% (E(1.35b)/V(8.10b) * Re(10.07%) + D(6.76b)/V(8.10b) * Rd(0.57%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.07% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 1.62%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -3.71b)
EPS Correlation: -1.85 | EPS CAGR: 2.98% | SUE: 2.14 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 1.91 | Revenue CAGR: -26.00% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.89 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-3.83 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-111.0% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%