(NTCT) NetScout Systems - Overview
Stock: Service Assurance, Cybersecurity, nGeniusONE, Arbor, Omnis
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 35.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -18.0% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.48 |
| Alpha | -2.43 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.909 |
| Beta Downside | 0.809 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 43.63% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.06 |
Description: NTCT NetScout Systems January 15, 2026
NetScout Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTCT) delivers service-assurance and cybersecurity solutions that help enterprises and service providers detect, diagnose, and prevent network disruptions across the United States, Europe, Asia and other regions.
Its core portfolio centers on the nGeniusONE suite-management software, active testing (nGeniusPULSE), business analytics, and the ISNG platform-for real-time packet-flow collection, capacity planning, and traffic troubleshooting, complemented by the virtualized vSTREAM appliance.
Under the Arbor brand, NetScout offers DDoS mitigation and advanced threat-detection products such as Arbor Sightline, Arbor Edge Defense, and Omnis Cyber Investigator, targeting financial services, technology, healthcare, utilities, carriers, cloud providers, and government agencies through direct sales and reseller channels.
Key performance indicators: FY2023 revenue reached approximately $1.2 billion, with a 7 % YoY increase driven by rising 5G rollouts and heightened demand for network security amid a 15 % annual growth in global DDoS attack volume (IDC, 2023). The communications-equipment sector’s average EV/EBITDA is ~12×, giving NetScout a valuation benchmark for comparison.
For a deeper, data-driven view of NetScout’s valuation dynamics, you may find ValueRay’s analytics platform worth a quick look.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.0
| Net Income: 95.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.32 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 49.62% < 20% (prev 37.80%; Δ 11.82% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 283.8m > Net Income 95.9m |
| Net Debt (-531.2m) to EBITDA (173.7m): -3.06 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.97 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (71.7m) vs 12m ago -1.16% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 79.25% > 18% (prev 0.78%; Δ 7847 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 38.32% > 50% (prev 37.76%; Δ 0.56% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 56.22 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 173.7m / Interest Expense TTM 2.06m) |
Altman Z'' 1.66
| A: 0.18 (Total Current Assets 870.0m - Total Current Liabilities 442.6m) / Total Assets 2.32b |
| B: 0.01 (Retained Earnings 32.8m / Total Assets 2.32b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 115.6m / Avg Total Assets 2.25b) |
| D: 0.05 (Book Value of Equity 37.0m / Total Liabilities 680.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.66 = BB |
Beneish M -3.11
| DSRI: 1.04 (Receivables 234.6m/214.6m, Revenue 861.4m/821.1m) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 79.25% / 77.67%) |
| AQI: 0.92 (AQ_t 0.60 / AQ_t-1 0.65) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 861.4m / 821.1m) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 95.9m - CFO 283.8m) / TA 2.32b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.11 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of NTCT shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.29%, over one month by +1.73%, over three months by -5.45% and over the past year by +12.21%.
Is NTCT a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the NTCT price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 30.4 | 9.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 30.4 | 9.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 27.9 | 0.8% |
NTCT Fundamental Data Overview February 08, 2026
P/E Forward = 10.6952
P/S = 2.3198
P/B = 1.1907
P/EG = 1.57
Revenue TTM = 861.4m USD
EBIT TTM = 115.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 173.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 43.5m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 20.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 41.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -531.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.45b USD (2.00b + Debt 41.8m - CCE 586.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 56.22 (Ebit TTM 115.6m / Interest Expense TTM 2.06m)
EV/FCF = 5.28x (Enterprise Value 1.45b / FCF TTM 275.5m)
FCF Yield = 18.95% (FCF TTM 275.5m / Enterprise Value 1.45b)
FCF Margin = 31.98% (FCF TTM 275.5m / Revenue TTM 861.4m)
Net Margin = 11.13% (Net Income TTM 95.9m / Revenue TTM 861.4m)
Gross Margin = 79.25% ((Revenue TTM 861.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 178.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 81.64% (prev 80.09%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.63 (Enterprise Value 1.45b / Total Assets 2.32b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.09% (Interest Expense 456.0k / Debt 41.8m)
Taxrate = 17.21% (11.5m / 66.6m)
NOPAT = 95.7m (EBIT 115.6m * (1 - 17.21%))
Current Ratio = 1.97 (Total Current Assets 870.0m / Total Current Liabilities 442.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.03 (Debt 41.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.64b)
Debt / EBITDA = -3.06 (Net Debt -531.2m / EBITDA 173.7m)
Debt / FCF = -1.93 (Net Debt -531.2m / FCF TTM 275.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.58b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.27% (Net Income 95.9m / Total Assets 2.32b)
RoE = 6.07% (Net Income TTM 95.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.58b)
RoCE = 7.12% (EBIT 115.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.58b + L.T.Debt 43.5m))
RoIC = 6.14% (NOPAT 95.7m / Invested Capital 1.56b)
WACC = 9.10% (E(2.00b)/V(2.04b) * Re(9.27%) + D(41.8m)/V(2.04b) * Rd(1.09%) * (1-Tc(0.17)))
Discount Rate = 9.27% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.69%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈230.9m ; Y1≈249.9m ; Y5≈309.8m
Fair Price DCF = 68.43 (EV 4.41b - Net Debt -531.2m = Equity 4.94b / Shares 72.2m; r=9.10% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 9.30% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 37.85 | EPS CAGR: 39.11% | SUE: 1.43 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 2.46 | Revenue CAGR: 7.49% | SUE: 1.35 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.36 | Chg30d=-0.015 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2027-03-31): EPS=2.49 | Chg30d=-0.003 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+3.1% | Growth Revenue=+2.3%