(NTRA) Natera - Overview
Stock: Panorama, Horizon, Vistara, Spectrum, Signatera
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 50.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.27% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.46 |
| Alpha | -3.13 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.191 |
| Beta Downside | 0.876 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 39.94% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.72 |
Description: NTRA Natera December 19, 2025
Natera, Inc. (NASDAQ: NTRA) is a global molecular diagnostics firm that commercializes a portfolio of DNA-based tests spanning reproductive health, oncology, organ transplantation, and rare-disease screening. Core offerings include Panorama (non-invasive prenatal testing), Signatera (personalized circulating tumor DNA monitoring), and a suite of carrier-screening, pre-implantation genetic testing, and transplant-rejection assays, delivered through a mix of direct sales and partner laboratories. Strategic collaborations with BGI Genomics and Foundation Medicine expand its next-generation sequencing (NGS) capabilities and market reach.
Key performance indicators from the most recent fiscal year show revenue of roughly $1.0 billion, up about 20 % year-over-year, driven primarily by strong growth in the Panorama and Signatera lines. The company maintains an industry-leading gross margin near 80 % and reported cash and short-term investments of approximately $400 million, providing runway for R&D and potential acquisitions. Sector-wide, the NIPT market is projected to expand at a CAGR of ~10 % through 2029, while oncology-focused liquid biopsy adoption is accelerating as payers broaden reimbursement for personalized cancer monitoring.
For a deeper quantitative assessment of NTRA’s valuation metrics, the ValueRay platform offers a concise, data-driven dashboard worth reviewing.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: -309.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 7.22 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 47.49% < 20% (prev 66.66%; Δ -19.16% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 194.3m > Net Income -309.2m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 3.27 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (137.2m) vs 12m ago 10.84% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 63.70% > 18% (prev 0.58%; Δ 6312 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 124.1% > 50% (prev 96.29%; Δ 27.76% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -69.90 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -268.8m / Interest Expense TTM 4.37m) |
Altman Z'' -7.84
| A: 0.55 (Total Current Assets 1.45b - Total Current Liabilities 442.0m) / Total Assets 1.82b |
| B: -1.55 (Retained Earnings -2.82b / Total Assets 1.82b) |
| C: -0.18 (EBIT TTM -305.5m / Avg Total Assets 1.71b) |
| D: -4.96 (Book Value of Equity -2.82b / Total Liabilities 569.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -7.84 = D |
Beneish M -3.03
| DSRI: 0.68 (Receivables 286.4m/306.9m, Revenue 2.12b/1.53b) |
| GMI: 0.91 (GM 63.70% / 57.66%) |
| AQI: 1.61 (AQ_t 0.04 / AQ_t-1 0.02) |
| SGI: 1.38 (Revenue 2.12b / 1.53b) |
| TATA: -0.28 (NI -309.2m - CFO 194.3m) / TA 1.82b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.03 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of NTRA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -12.16%, over one month by -18.37%, over three months by +2.30% and over the past year by +15.93%.
Is NTRA a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 12
- Buy: 8
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the NTRA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 257.2 | 26.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 257.2 | 26.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 271.5 | 33.7% |
NTRA Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/B = 22.8976
Revenue TTM = 2.12b USD
EBIT TTM = -305.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = -268.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 118.4m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 80.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 184.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -856.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 26.62b USD (27.48b + Debt 184.7m - CCE 1.04b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -69.90 (Ebit TTM -305.5m / Interest Expense TTM 4.37m)
EV/FCF = 284.6x (Enterprise Value 26.62b / FCF TTM 93.6m)
FCF Yield = 0.35% (FCF TTM 93.6m / Enterprise Value 26.62b)
FCF Margin = 4.42% (FCF TTM 93.6m / Revenue TTM 2.12b)
Net Margin = -14.61% (Net Income TTM -309.2m / Revenue TTM 2.12b)
Gross Margin = 63.70% ((Revenue TTM 2.12b - Cost of Revenue TTM 768.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 64.91% (prev 63.50%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 14.62 (Enterprise Value 26.62b / Total Assets 1.82b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.57% (Interest Expense 1.04m / Debt 184.7m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -241.4m (EBIT -305.5m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.27 (Total Current Assets 1.45b / Total Current Liabilities 442.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.15 (Debt 184.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.25b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.19 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -856.7m / EBITDA -268.8m)
Debt / FCF = -9.16 (Net Debt -856.7m / FCF TTM 93.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.23b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -18.12% (Net Income -309.2m / Total Assets 1.82b)
RoE = -25.07% (Net Income TTM -309.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.23b)
RoCE = -22.60% (EBIT -305.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.23b + L.T.Debt 118.4m))
RoIC = -18.37% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -241.4m / Invested Capital 1.31b)
WACC = 10.23% (E(27.48b)/V(27.67b) * Re(10.30%) + D(184.7m)/V(27.67b) * Rd(0.57%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 7.23%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 60.87% ; FCFF base≈93.6m ; Y1≈61.4m ; Y5≈28.0m
Fair Price DCF = 8.99 (EV 396.8m - Net Debt -856.7m = Equity 1.25b / Shares 139.4m; r=10.23% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 85.60 | EPS CAGR: 98.92% | SUE: 2.23 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 99.30 | Revenue CAGR: 38.83% | SUE: 3.26 | # QB: 11
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.60 | Chg30d=+0.028 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=12
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.99 | Chg30d=+0.050 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+17.9% | Growth Revenue=+16.7%