(NTRS) Northern Trust - Overview
Stock: Asset Servicing, Wealth Management
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.70% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 4.65% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 2.58% |
| Payout Consistency | 98.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 28.2% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 28.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.6% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.08 |
| Alpha | 21.09 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.117 |
| Beta Downside | 1.115 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 34.53% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.58 |
Description: NTRS Northern Trust December 17, 2025
Northern Trust Corporation (NASDAQ: NTRS) is a U.S.-based financial holding company that operates two primary segments: Asset Servicing and Wealth Management. The Asset Servicing segment delivers custody, fund administration, securities lending, foreign-exchange, treasury, brokerage, and cash-management services to a broad institutional client base that includes corporate retirement plans, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, and fund managers. The Wealth Management segment provides trust, investment-management, brokerage, private-banking, and family-office services to high-net-worth individuals, business owners, and privately-held enterprises.
Key operating metrics (FY 2023) show ≈ $1.4 trillion in assets under custody/administration and ≈ $1.2 trillion in wealth-management assets under management, generating $5.6 billion in revenue with a net income of $1.1 billion, reflecting a profit margin of roughly 20 %. The firm’s revenue mix is roughly 55 % from Asset Servicing and 45 % from Wealth Management, indicating balanced exposure to both institutional and affluent-client cycles.
Sector drivers that materially affect Northern Trust include (1) the ongoing fee-compression pressure in custodial services, mitigated by the firm’s higher-margin advisory and risk-analytics offerings; (2) rising interest-rate environments that boost net interest income on cash-management and banking products; and (3) increasing demand for ESG-focused reporting and data solutions, where Northern Trust’s technology platform provides a competitive edge.
Assuming the FY 2024 outlook follows the same growth trajectory, the company’s AUM-driven fee revenue could grow 3-5 % year-over-year, but this is contingent on sustained market volatility that fuels demand for outsourced investment-operations services. A material shift in regulatory capital requirements or a prolonged low-rate environment would materially alter these expectations.
For a deeper quantitative dive into Northern Trust’s valuation dynamics, you might explore the analytics on ValueRay to see how its forward-looking metrics compare to peers.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 1.74b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.75 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -643.1% < 20% (prev -431.6%; Δ -211.5% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 2.51b > Net Income 1.74b |
| Net Debt (-44.70b) to EBITDA (3.21b): -13.90 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.41 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (188.6m) vs 12m ago -4.81% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 56.54% > 18% (prev 0.52%; Δ 5602 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 8.60% > 50% (prev 10.21%; Δ -1.61% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.38 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 3.21b / Interest Expense TTM 6.21b) |
Altman Z'' -2.92
| A: -0.52 (Total Current Assets 63.78b - Total Current Liabilities 155.74b) / Total Assets 177.13b |
| B: 0.07 (Retained Earnings 12.66b / Total Assets 177.13b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 2.33b / Avg Total Assets 166.32b) |
| D: 0.15 (Book Value of Equity 24.15b / Total Liabilities 164.17b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -2.92 = D |
What is the price of NTRS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.82%, over one month by +5.57%, over three months by +19.31% and over the past year by +37.38%.
Is NTRS a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 2
What are the forecasts/targets for the NTRS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 154.6 | 1.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 154.6 | 1.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 171 | 12.4% |
NTRS Fundamental Data Overview January 31, 2026
P/E Forward = 14.9925
P/S = 3.5202
P/B = 2.3253
P/EG = 1.2704
Revenue TTM = 14.30b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.33b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.21b USD
Long Term Debt = 13.52b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 12.94b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 16.43b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -44.70b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = -18.86b USD (28.49b + Debt 16.43b - CCE 63.78b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.38 (Ebit TTM 2.33b / Interest Expense TTM 6.21b)
EV/FCF = -11.00x (Enterprise Value -18.86b / FCF TTM 1.71b)
FCF Yield = -9.09% (FCF TTM 1.71b / Enterprise Value -18.86b)
FCF Margin = 11.99% (FCF TTM 1.71b / Revenue TTM 14.30b)
Net Margin = 12.15% (Net Income TTM 1.74b / Revenue TTM 14.30b)
Gross Margin = 56.54% ((Revenue TTM 14.30b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.21b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 58.84% (prev 57.07%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = -0.11 (set to none) (Enterprise Value -18.86b / Total Assets 177.13b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 9.04% (Interest Expense 1.49b / Debt 16.43b)
Taxrate = 26.48% (167.8m / 633.8m)
NOPAT = 1.71b (EBIT 2.33b * (1 - 26.48%))
Current Ratio = 0.41 (Total Current Assets 63.78b / Total Current Liabilities 155.74b)
Debt / Equity = 1.27 (Debt 16.43b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 12.96b)
Debt / EBITDA = -13.90 (Net Debt -44.70b / EBITDA 3.21b)
Debt / FCF = -26.07 (Net Debt -44.70b / FCF TTM 1.71b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 12.91b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.04% (Net Income 1.74b / Total Assets 177.13b)
RoE = 13.45% (Net Income TTM 1.74b / Total Stockholder Equity 12.91b)
RoCE = 8.82% (EBIT 2.33b / Capital Employed (Equity 12.91b + L.T.Debt 13.52b))
RoIC = 6.73% (NOPAT 1.71b / Invested Capital 25.49b)
WACC = 8.79% (E(28.49b)/V(44.92b) * Re(10.03%) + D(16.43b)/V(44.92b) * Rd(9.04%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 10.03% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -4.43%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 75.27% ; FCFF base≈2.72b ; Y1≈2.72b ; Y5≈2.90b
Fair Price DCF = 476.4 (EV 44.08b - Net Debt -44.70b = Equity 88.78b / Shares 186.3m; r=8.79% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -0.32% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 44.25 | EPS CAGR: 8.70% | SUE: 0.05 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 84.00 | Revenue CAGR: 21.82% | SUE: 2.85 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.23 | Chg30d=+0.149 | Revisions Net=+8 | Analysts=13
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.98 | Chg30d=+0.635 | Revisions Net=+11 | Growth EPS=+14.1% | Growth Revenue=+5.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=10.91 | Chg30d=+0.741 | Revisions Net=+9 | Growth EPS=+9.3% | Growth Revenue=+4.1%